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Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd TWD 12.12, price TWD 46.90, upside -74.2%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · TW · ISIN TW0001536001

HI Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd

1536 · TW

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 12.12 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−74.2%)
!Quality 34/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -16.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/14)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

104.22 TWD 45.00 TWD Fair Value 12.12 TWD Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 45.00 TWD – 104.22 TWD · fair‑value band 12.12 TWD – 13.08 TWD · the 46.90 TWD price screens above the 12.12 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Hota Industrial Mfg. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells gear wheels, shafts and various transmission parts in Taiwan and internationally.

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Hota Industrial Mfg. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells gear wheels, shafts and various transmission parts in Taiwan and internationally. The company offers transmission products, including motor shaft, reduction box gear set, differential, link shaft, starter shaft for electric car; engine components, gearbox components, torque conversion system, transmission shaft, differential components, balance shaft, sprocket oil pump, gear balance shaft, sprocket balance shaft, coupling pump drive, and shaft oil pump drive for fuel vehicle. It also provides gear collar pump drive, gear crank shaft, starter drive, rear sprocket, balance gear shaft, engine spare parts, gearbox components, electric, and other motorcycle spare parts for electric locomotives. In addition, the company offers driving gear, double gear, gear shaft, speed gear shaft, transmission shaft, input shaft, agricultural machinery gearbox, construction machine gearbox, and rear axle parts for agriculture machinery. Further, the company provides gear hobbing, and chamfering machine, servo press, and automation integration services for machine tools. It offers its products under the HARTECH brand name. The company was formerly known as Hota Industrial Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hota Industrial Mfg. Co., Ltd. in 1990. Hota Industrial Mfg. Co., Ltd. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.

Stock analysis

Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536) currently trades at 46.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.12 TWD, 74.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 18.61 TWD per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the 46.90 TWD price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 3.53 TWD, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 12.12 TWD (bear) to 13.08 TWD (bull), the price of 46.90 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.8B TWD in FY2025 versus 6.7B TWD in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −756M TWD in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 14.6B TWD (≈ $457M) · P/S ratio 3.09 · EPS (TTM) −2.87 TWD · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin −15.9% · Return on equity −9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% · Operating margin −13.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −74%, 1536 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 12.12 TWD Fair Value 12.12 TWD Bull 13.08 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a 3.92 TWD 12.35 TWD 77
Growth DCF n/a 3.53 TWD 10.78 TWD 75
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a 5.79 TWD 69
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a 3.92 TWD 12.35 TWD 77
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a 5.79 TWD 69
10Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a 5.91 TWD 64
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a n/a 0.6100 TWD 65
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a n/a 0.7200 TWD 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 13.89 TWD 18.61 TWD 27.78 TWD 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a 3.53 TWD 10.78 TWD 75
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a 5.77 TWD 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.4% (2020) → −10.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.9% a year for the price.

1536 screens overvalued: fair value 74% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 680 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −74.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −16.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −13.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.86× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 45.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.29× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)57 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)31 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹48,250 ₹25,213 −48%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥46.44 ¥28.28 −39%

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Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd · Fair Value
12.12 TWD −74%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1536

Frequently asked questions

Is Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12.12 TWD versus a price of 46.90 TWD, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1536?
Our model-based fair value for Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 12.12 TWD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 46.90 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1536?
Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12.12 TWD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.12 TWD, optimistic scenario 13.08 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12.12 TWD, about −74% upside versus a price of 46.90 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.12 TWD, optimistic scenario 13.08 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.7B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +35.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1536 use?
Our models discount Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd that is +35.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd grew -1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +35.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (+35.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.77 %: that much free cash flow Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd it is 12.12 TWD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 46.90 TWD. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1536 trades above its calculated fair value: price 46.90 TWD, fair value 12.12 TWD, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1536?
No. The price is what the market pays today (46.90 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (12.12 TWD). For Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd the two are 34.78 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd at about 14.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 46.90 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 12.12 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1536?
Our models span a range for Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd: cautious scenario 12.12 TWD, base 12.12 TWD, optimistic 13.08 TWD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 46.90 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1536?
The PEG ratio of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 1.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −9.8%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1536 from its 52-week high?
Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd trades at 46.90 TWD, about 28% below its 52-week high of 65.30 TWD and 4% above the low of 45.00 TWD (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 12.12 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 46.90 TWD, calculated fair value 12.12 TWD (−74%), Quality Score 34/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1536 calculated?
We run Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 12.12 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 46.90 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 12.12 TWD, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (13.08 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (12.12 TWD to 13.08 TWD), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The market capitalisation of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 14.6B TWD (≈ $457M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 3.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Earnings per share at Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd are −2.87 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The dividend yield of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The net margin of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is −15.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
The operating margin of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is −13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Revenue at Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536)?
Earnings per share at Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd are growing −80.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd (1536) carry?
The net debt of Hota Industrial Mfg. Co Ltd is 12.0B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 33.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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