Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd HK$4.37, price HK$1.68, upside +160.1%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.50 – HK$2.38 · fair‑value band HK$2.78 – HK$5.76 · the HK$1.68 price screens below the HK$4.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Qilu Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates expressways in the People's Republic of China.
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Qilu Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates expressways in the People's Republic of China. The company constructs, maintains, operates, and manages the Jihe Expressway that has a total length of approximately 153.6 kilometers from Jinan City to Heze City in Shandong Province; Deshang Expressway that has a total length of approximately 68.942 kilometers in Henan Province; and Shennan Expressway that has a total length of approximately 18.267 kilometers in Henan Province. It also produces and distributes outdoor advertising; and sells construction materials, as well as providing construction contracting services. In addition, the company provides investment activity and management consulting; wind power hybrid tower production, sales and related technical services; construction engineering such as highway engineering construction, expressway maintenance and municipal greening; and sales of industrial products. The company was formerly known as Shandong Jihe Expressway Company Limited. Qilu Expressway Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Jinan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576) currently trades at HK$1.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.37, implying the stock looks roughly 61.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$4.98 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$1.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.49, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.78 (bear) to HK$5.76 (bull), the price of HK$1.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 376M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.4B (≈ $428M) · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1000 · Dividend yield 7.1% · Net margin 16.3% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 160%, 1576 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.78Fair Value HK$4.37Bull HK$5.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.5% vs −2.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 30%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+160.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.1% · Below median
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)16.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)26.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−69.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.54× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Qilu Expressway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1576
Frequently asked questions
Is Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.37 versus a price of HK$1.68, about +160% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1576?
Our model-based fair value for Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is HK$4.37 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.68.
What is the quality score of 1576?
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.37 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.78, optimistic scenario HK$5.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Qilu Expressway Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.37, about +160% upside versus a price of HK$1.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.78, optimistic scenario HK$5.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Qilu Expressway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Qilu Expressway Co Ltd it is HK$4.37 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.68. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Qilu Expressway Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1576 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.68, fair value HK$4.37, a gap of about +160% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1576?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.37). For Qilu Expressway Co Ltd the two are HK$2.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Qilu Expressway Co Ltd worth?
The market values Qilu Expressway Co Ltd at about HK$3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.68; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1576?
Our models span a range for Qilu Expressway Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.78, base HK$4.37, optimistic HK$5.76 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1576?
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Balance-sheet figures for Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 1.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1576 from its 52-week high?
Qilu Expressway Co Ltd trades at HK$1.68, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$1.86 and 6% above the low of HK$1.58 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Qilu Expressway Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Qilu Expressway Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.68, calculated fair value HK$4.37 (+160%), Quality Score 44/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1576 calculated?
We run Qilu Expressway Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Qilu Expressway Co Ltd currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.68. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.37, about +160% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Qilu Expressway Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.78 to HK$5.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576) come from?
Earnings per share at Qilu Expressway Co Ltd grew +0.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.8 %, EBIT margin −15.8 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The market capitalisation of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is HK$3.4B (≈ $428M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Earnings per share at Qilu Expressway Co Ltd are HK$0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The dividend yield of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is 7.1% (payout 120%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The net margin of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is 16.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
The operating margin of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Revenue at Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is growing −69.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576)?
Earnings per share at Qilu Expressway Co Ltd are growing −25.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576) generate?
The free cash flow of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is −HK$342M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576) carry?
The net debt of Qilu Expressway Co Ltd is HK$10.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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