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Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd (1596) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$328M

HY Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd 1596 · HK
PriceHK$0.3300
Fair ValueHK$0.3966
Upside+20.2%
Quality77/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 17.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.97% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (14/14)
Moderate moat 64/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.2600 – HK$0.5743 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.4160 to HK$0.3966 (−4.7%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 20% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2600 to HK$0.5743) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from HK$0.2600 (bear) to HK$0.5743 (bull), base HK$0.3966. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 77/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.19 HK$0.2850 Fair Value HK$0.3966 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2850 – HK$5.19 · fair‑value band HK$0.2600 – HK$0.5743 · the HK$0.3300 price screens below the HK$0.3966 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd (1596) currently trades at HK$0.3300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3966, implying the stock looks roughly 20.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.7B at a net margin of 17.1%. Revenue grew 101.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at HK$280M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2600 (bear case) to HK$0.5743 (bull case); at HK$0.3300, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 20%, 1596 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.41 HK$3.29 HK$4.36 80
Residual Income HK$2.48 HK$2.73 HK$3.78 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.28 HK$3.51 HK$4.89 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.39 HK$3.38 HK$4.67 38
Owner Earnings HK$3.25 HK$4.59 HK$6.34 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.28 HK$3.49 HK$5.00 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.24 HK$5.24 HK$7.55 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.58 HK$5.88 HK$8.26 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.24 HK$3.28 HK$4.61 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.85 HK$4.38 HK$6.37 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.05 HK$4.79 HK$6.85 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.16 HK$6.18 HK$8.15 54
Lynch FV HK$1.27 HK$1.81 HK$2.35 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.27 HK$1.81 HK$2.35 46
EPV HK$2.54 HK$2.89 HK$3.18 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.2900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.7100 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2900 HK$0.4300 HK$0.5500 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.01 HK$6.68 HK$8.35 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.80 HK$3.73 HK$4.66 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.06 HK$5.41 HK$6.76 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.75 HK$6.34 HK$7.93 53
EV/EBITDA HK$4.33 HK$5.78 HK$7.23 54
EV/Revenue HK$2.34 HK$3.35 HK$4.35 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.48 HK$1.99 HK$2.96 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.41 HK$3.29 HK$4.36 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.28 HK$3.51 HK$4.89 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.48 HK$2.73 HK$3.78 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.54 HK$2.89 HK$3.33 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.03 HK$5.75 HK$7.48 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$5.75) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.4300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +101%
Net margin 17.1%
Return on equity 11.3%
Free cash flow HK$233M FY2025
P/E ratio 1.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 24.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500
Dividend yield 3.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -11.9%
Net debt HK$280M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and sales of rail fastening system, welding wire, and railway sleeper products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.

Full company description

Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited engages in the research and development, manufacturing, and sales of rail fastening system, welding wire, and railway sleeper products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers high-speed railway fastening systems, track, urban railway transportation, and heavy-haul railway series products, as well as solid and flux-cored wire products to the shipbuilding industry. Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Shijiazhuang, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$284M in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.7B
Latest YoY
+52.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Revenue +5.2%/yr
FY21 HK$1.4B
FY22 HK$1.3B
FY23 HK$1.2B
FY24 HK$1.1B
FY25 HK$1.7B
Net income +3.7%/yr
FY21 HK$246M
FY22 HK$161M
FY23 HK$49.4M
FY24 −HK$50.8M
FY25 HK$284M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −7.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.6 pp

of which total revenue +4.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.2 pp

EBIT margin −9.5 pp
Tax rate +0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1596

Peer Group

Railroads · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +21% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 101% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.13× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.12× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 0.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 62 · sector 25
FUTURE 100 · sector 19
PAST 45 · sector 30
HEALTH 93 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 59 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $293.73 $141.29 -52%
CSX Corporation CSX $50.08 $12.62 -75%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.69 $34.23 -63%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$176.01 C$92.68 -47%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $335.41 $114.55 -66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $295.54 $144.80 -51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.04 ¥5.65 +12%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.30 HK$17.85 -45%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd (1596) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3966 versus a price of HK$0.3300, about +20% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1596?
Our model-based fair value for Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd is HK$0.3966 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.3300.
What is the quality score of 1596?
Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd (1596)?
Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1596?
The net profit margin of Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd is about 17.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.97% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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