China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd (1600) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd HK$4.29, price HK$2.75, upside +56.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd
1600 · HKCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.16 – HK$7.63 · fair‑value band HK$3.81 – HK$4.29 · the HK$2.75 price screens below the HK$4.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gas pipeline construction and infrastructure laying and installation in China. It operates through four segments: Sales of Natural Gas in Cylinders, Sales of Natural Gas in Bulk, Engineering Construction Services, and Other.
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Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gas pipeline construction and infrastructure laying and installation in China. It operates through four segments: Sales of Natural Gas in Cylinders, Sales of Natural Gas in Bulk, Engineering Construction Services, and Other. The company engages in the transportation, distribution, and sale of natural gas and compressed natural gas, as well as production and sale of liquified natural gas in bulk and cylinders. It is also involved in city gas processing, transmission, supply, engineering design, and construction; heating, cooling, and photovoltaic businesses; gasification of rural areas; investment and construction of rooftop distributed photovoltaic systems for power generation; and provision of gas safety support and renewable resource recycling services, financial and health, after-sales, online marketplace, and maintenance services. In addition, the company engages in the trading of natural gas equipment; consulting services; new energy technology development services; gas pipelines designing services; electricity generation; technology promotion and application services; and sales and services of daily necessities for residents. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was formerly known as China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited and changed its name to Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited in September 2021. Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, China.
Stock analysis
China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd (1600) currently trades at HK$2.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.29, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$9.21 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$2.75 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.8500, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.81 (bear) to HK$4.29 (bull), the price of HK$2.75 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 7.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was 38.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −55.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.7B (≈ $339M) · P/E ratio 54.6 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1200 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 56%, 1600 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.10 | €32.79 | +13% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $157.21 | $77.00 | −51% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €45.25 | €45.97 | +2% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $39.42 | $19.90 | −50% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.08 | HK$4.79 | −32% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹172.70 | ₹132.97 | −23% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.35 | €9.19 | +10% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥18.54 | ¥36.99 | +100% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $36.24 | $32.74 | −10% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$48.76 | HK$107.85 | +121% |
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