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China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd (1600) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$2.6B

CT China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd 1600 · HK
PriceHK$2.66
Fair ValueHK$2.30
Upside-13.5%
Quality48/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.5% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
3.75% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.60 – HK$3.00 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.14 to HK$2.30 (+101.8%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −2.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$1.60 to HK$3.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.63 HK$2.16 Fair Value HK$2.30 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.16 – HK$7.63 · fair‑value band HK$1.60 – HK$3.00 · the HK$2.66 price screens above the HK$2.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd (1600) currently trades at HK$2.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.30, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$7.9B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at HK$5.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.60 (bear case) to HK$3.00 (bull case); at HK$2.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -14%, 1600 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.77 HK$6.99 HK$16.30 80
Residual Income HK$4.10 HK$3.82 HK$2.64 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.06 HK$5.34 HK$11.57 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.00 HK$6.05 HK$16.73 38
Owner Earnings — HK$2.31 HK$8.56 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.06 HK$5.20 HK$12.10 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.32 HK$7.99 HK$16.86 41
5Y P/E Exit — — HK$0.3700 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.16 HK$5.72 HK$12.09 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.18 HK$7.95 HK$18.10 37
10Y P/E Exit — HK$0.9400 HK$2.98 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2800 HK$1.80 HK$2.52 54
Lynch FV HK$0.5300 HK$0.7500 HK$0.9800 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.5300 HK$0.7500 HK$0.9800 46
EPV — HK$0.5700 HK$1.08 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.25 HK$2.48 HK$3.76 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.25 HK$2.15 HK$2.62 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.5500 HK$0.7300 HK$0.9100 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5200 HK$0.6900 HK$0.8600 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.5200 HK$0.6900 HK$0.8600 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.52 HK$3.27 HK$5.02 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.69 HK$4.83 HK$6.97 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.5200 HK$2.34 HK$4.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.06 HK$4.10 HK$6.12 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.77 HK$6.99 HK$16.30 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.06 HK$5.34 HK$11.57 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.10 HK$3.82 HK$2.64 76
ROIC Compounder — HK$0.5700 HK$1.08 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.6900 HK$0.9800 HK$1.28 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$5.72) versus Economic Profit (HK$0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$7.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.3%
Net margin 0.5%
Return on equity 0.9%
Free cash flow HK$381M FY2025
P/E ratio 54.6 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 2.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1200
Dividend yield 3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -9.0%
Net debt HK$5.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gas pipeline construction and infrastructure laying and installation in China. It operates through four segments: Sales of Natural Gas in Cylinders, Sales of Natural Gas in Bulk, Engineering Construction Services, and Other.

Full company description

Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gas pipeline construction and infrastructure laying and installation in China. It operates through four segments: Sales of Natural Gas in Cylinders, Sales of Natural Gas in Bulk, Engineering Construction Services, and Other. The company engages in the transportation, distribution, and sale of natural gas and compressed natural gas, as well as production and sale of liquified natural gas in bulk and cylinders. It is also involved in city gas processing, transmission, supply, engineering design, and construction; heating, cooling, and photovoltaic businesses; gasification of rural areas; investment and construction of rooftop distributed photovoltaic systems for power generation; and provision of gas safety support and renewable resource recycling services, financial and health, after-sales, online marketplace, and maintenance services. In addition, the company engages in the trading of natural gas equipment; consulting services; new energy technology development services; gas pipelines designing services; electricity generation; technology promotion and application services; and sales and services of daily necessities for residents. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was formerly known as China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited and changed its name to Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited in September 2021. Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$7.9B in FY2025 versus HK$7.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$38.6M in FY2025, compounding −55.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$7.9B
Latest YoY
+2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.5%
Revenue +0.9%/yr
FY21 HK$7.7B
FY22 HK$7.5B
FY23 HK$7.7B
FY24 HK$7.8B
FY25 HK$7.9B
Net income −55.7%/yr
FY21 HK$1.0B
FY22 HK$445M
FY23 HK$480M
FY24 HK$301M
FY25 HK$38.6M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +15.2 pp

of which total revenue +15.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp

EBIT margin −8.5 pp
Tax rate −1.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1600 screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

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China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.30 −14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1600

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −14% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.84× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 54.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.45× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.33× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.25× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 15 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 4 · sector 34
HEALTH 58 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 75 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.94 €31.58 +9%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $169.59 $85.67 -49%
NiSource Inc NI $42.01 $28.59 -32%
Uniper SE UN0 €47.45 €48.32 +2%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$6.76 HK$4.79 -29%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹177.95 ₹130.21 -27%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹654.05 ₹101.36 -85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.32 ¥25.71 +48%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$47.16 HK$107.98 +129%
China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 ¥7.26 ¥7.37 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd (1600) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.30 versus a price of HK$2.66, about −14% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1600?
Our model-based fair value for China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd is HK$2.30 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.66.
What is the quality score of 1600?
China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd (1600)?
China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$7.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1600?
The net profit margin of China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd is about 0.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.75% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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