Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3600 – HK$2.78 · fair‑value band HK$0.5581 – HK$0.6736 · the HK$0.6750 price screens above the HK$0.6087 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Sino Gas Holdings Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the People's Republic of China.
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Sino Gas Holdings Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail and wholesale of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the People's Republic of China. The company is involved fuel transportation activities; and sale of CNG, LPG, and LNG to vehicular end-users by operating gas refueling stations. It serves industrial customers and gas merchants. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. Sino Gas Holdings Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Full Limited.
Stock analysis
Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759) currently trades at HK$0.6750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6087, implying the stock looks roughly 10.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.5581 (bear) to HK$0.6736 (bull), the price of HK$0.6750 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was −25.4M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$162M (≈ $20.7M) · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −1.2% · Return on equity −9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin −1.6% · Revenue (TTM) HK$2.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −10%, 1759 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.5581Fair Value HK$0.6087Bull HK$0.6736
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.9% (2019) → −1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−30.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1759
Frequently asked questions
Is Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6087 versus a price of HK$0.6750, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1759?
Our model-based fair value for Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is HK$0.6087 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6750.
What is the quality score of 1759?
Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6087 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5581, optimistic scenario HK$0.6736. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6087, about −10% upside versus a price of HK$0.6750 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5581, optimistic scenario HK$0.6736. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -30.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1759 use?
Our models discount Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd that is -30.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies -30.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (-30.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.04 %: that much free cash flow Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd it is HK$0.6087 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6750. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 1759 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6750, fair value HK$0.6087, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1759?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6087). For Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0663 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd worth?
The market values Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd at about HK$162M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6750; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6087 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1759?
Our models span a range for Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5581, base HK$0.6087, optimistic HK$0.6736 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.6750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −9.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1759 from its 52-week high?
Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd trades at HK$0.6750, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$1.49 and 38% above the low of HK$0.4900 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6087 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.6750, calculated fair value HK$0.6087 (−10%), Quality Score 42/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1759 calculated?
We run Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6087, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
The market capitalisation of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is HK$162M (≈ $20.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is 0.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Earnings per share at Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
The net margin of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is −1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is −9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
The operating margin of Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Revenue at Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759)?
Earnings per share at Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd are growing −9.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd (1759) hold?
Sino Gas Holdings Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$77.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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