CGN Meiya Power Hldg Co Ltd (1811) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$9.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.7900 to HK$0.7300 (−7.6%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −8.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.44 – HK$7.24 · fair‑value band HK$0.6200 – HK$1.05 · the HK$2.08 price screens above the HK$0.7300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CGN Meiya Power Hldg Co Ltd (1811) currently trades at HK$2.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.7300, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Meiya Power Hldg Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.7B at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue declined 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. Net debt stands at HK$6.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.6200 (bear case) to HK$1.05 (bull case); at HK$2.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -65%, 1811 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$0.8800) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, generates and supplies electricity and steam in the People's Republic of China and Republic of Korea. It operates wind, solar, gas-fired, coal-fired, oil-fired, hydro, and biomass power generation projects, as well as an energy storage project.
Full company description
CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, generates and supplies electricity and steam in the People's Republic of China and Republic of Korea. It operates wind, solar, gas-fired, coal-fired, oil-fired, hydro, and biomass power generation projects, as well as an energy storage project. The company also engages in the construction and operation of power stations and other associated facilities. In addition, it provides management services to power plants. The company was formerly known as CGN Meiya Power Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. in November 2015. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of CGN Energy International Holdings Co., Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CGN Meiya Power Hldg Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.8B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$276M in FY2025, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1811 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $278.68 | $88.09 | -68% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $146.68 | $50.39 | -66% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | -63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.93 | ¥2.79 | -29% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $120.66 | $53.91 | -55% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 65.00 THB | 39.25 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | -78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥6.29 | ¥4.95 | -21% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$57.30 | HK$30.76 | -46% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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