Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd HK$3.68, price HK$1.20, upside +208.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.02 – HK$2.16 · fair‑value band HK$2.76 – HK$4.60 · the HK$1.20 price screens below the HK$3.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited provides heat supply services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Heat Supply; and Construction, Maintenance and Design Services. It is involved in the provision, production, supply, sale, and transmission of heat; and pipe network transmission services.
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Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited provides heat supply services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Heat Supply; and Construction, Maintenance and Design Services. It is involved in the provision, production, supply, sale, and transmission of heat; and pipe network transmission services. The company also offers engineering construction, maintenance, and design; design, consulting, and feasibility studies related to heating projects; and applies biomass energy. In addition, it provides installation, repair, and maintenance services for heating facilities; and heat supply network transmission services. Further, the company undertakes heat construction and maintenance works; produces and supplies electricity; and manufacture and sells apparatus. It serves residential and non-residential users. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Changchun, China. Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited is a subsidiary of Changchun Chuncheng Investment Development Group Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) currently trades at HK$1.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.68, implying the stock looks roughly 67.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$5.01 per share, and 21 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$1.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.08, and 2 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.76 (bear) to HK$4.60 (bull), the price of HK$1.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was 81.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$558M (≈ $71.1M) · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 208%, 1853 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.76Fair Value HK$3.68Bull HK$4.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1512 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.9% vs 1.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 72 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1853
Frequently asked questions
Is Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.68 versus a price of HK$1.20, about +208% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1853?
Our model-based fair value for Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is HK$3.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.20.
What is the quality score of 1853?
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.76, optimistic scenario HK$4.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.68, about +208% upside versus a price of HK$1.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.76, optimistic scenario HK$4.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1853 use?
Our models discount Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd grew -2.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.01 %: that much free cash flow Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd it is HK$3.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.20. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1853 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.20, fair value HK$3.68, a gap of about +208% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1853?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.68). For Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd the two are HK$2.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd worth?
The market values Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd at about HK$558M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1853?
Our models span a range for Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.76, base HK$3.68, optimistic HK$4.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1853?
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1853 from its 52-week high?
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd trades at HK$1.20, about 45% below its 52-week high of HK$2.16 and 17% above the low of HK$1.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.20, calculated fair value HK$3.68 (+208%), Quality Score 44/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1853 calculated?
We run Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd currently trades 68 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$1.20. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.68, about +208% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The market capitalisation of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is HK$558M (≈ $71.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Earnings per share at Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd are HK$0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The dividend yield of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is 2.5% (payout 13.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The net margin of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
The operating margin of Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Revenue at Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd is growing −14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853)?
Earnings per share at Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd are growing −27.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) hold?
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 827M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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