Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$588M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$3.66 to HK$3.67 (+0.3%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +28.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 170% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.75). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.02 – HK$2.16 · fair‑value band HK$2.75 – HK$4.58 · the HK$1.36 price screens below the HK$3.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd (1853) currently trades at HK$1.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.67, implying the stock looks roughly 169.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.7B at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue declined 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$827M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.75 (bear case) to HK$4.58 (bull case); at HK$1.36, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at 170%, 1853 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$4.43) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited provides heat supply services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Heat Supply; and Construction, Maintenance and Design Services. It is involved in the provision, production, supply, sale, and transmission of heat; and pipe network transmission services.
Full company description
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited provides heat supply services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Heat Supply; and Construction, Maintenance and Design Services. It is involved in the provision, production, supply, sale, and transmission of heat; and pipe network transmission services. The company also offers engineering construction, maintenance, and design; design, consulting, and feasibility studies related to heating projects; and applies biomass energy. In addition, it provides installation, repair, and maintenance services for heating facilities; and heat supply network transmission services. Further, the company undertakes heat construction and maintenance works; produces and supplies electricity; and manufacture and sells apparatus. It serves residential and non-residential users. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Changchun, China. Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited is a subsidiary of Changchun Chuncheng Investment Development Group Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$81.7M in FY2025, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $278.68 | $88.09 | -68% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $146.68 | $50.39 | -66% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | -63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.93 | ¥2.79 | -29% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $120.66 | $53.91 | -55% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 65.00 THB | 39.25 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | -78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥6.29 | ¥4.95 | -21% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$57.30 | HK$30.76 | -46% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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