1861 (1861) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · Market cap HK$676M

1 1861 1861 · HK

PriceHK$2.89

Fair ValueHK$4.71

Upside+63.0%

Quality73/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$3.51 – HK$6.11

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Share price +37.6% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.7722 – HK$3.18 · fair‑value band HK$3.51 – HK$6.11 · the HK$2.89 price screens below the HK$4.71 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

1861 (1861) currently trades at HK$2.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.71 — implying the stock looks roughly 63.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, 1861 generated revenue of HK$656M at a net margin of 9.0%. Revenue declined 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$157M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$656M

Revenue growth (YoY) -2.3%

Net margin 9.0%

Return on equity 16.7%

Free cash flow HK$72.9M FY2025

P/E ratio 11.6

More key figures

Operating margin 13.6%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.2200

Dividend yield 2.3%

EPS growth (YoY) -39.5%

Net cash HK$157M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

1861 reported revenue of HK$656M in FY2025 versus HK$610M in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$58.8M in FY2025, compounding +34.3%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +1.8%/yr

FY21 HK$610M

FY22 HK$560M

FY23 HK$557M

FY24 HK$613M

FY25 HK$656M

Net income +34.3%/yr

FY21 HK$18.1M

FY22 HK$42.0M

FY23 HK$56.9M

FY24 HK$34.1M

FY25 HK$58.8M

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Similar stocks

6 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ANCTF	$57.91	$61.82	+7%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY	$831.67	$308.04	-63%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM	$206.94	$116.29	-44%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA	$465.06	$647.05	+39%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS	$214.97	$283.60	+32%
China Tourism Group 601888	¥58.05	¥37.51	-35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 1861 (1861) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.71 versus a price of HK$2.89 — about +63% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 1861?

Our model-based fair value for 1861 is HK$4.71 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.89.

What is the quality score of 1861?

1861 has a Quality Score of 73/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 1861 (1861)?

1861 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$656M (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1861?

The net profit margin of 1861 is about 9.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 1861 pay a dividend?

1861 currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.