Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd stock HK$0.10, price HK$0.50, upside -79.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0163 – HK$1.25 · fair‑value band HK$0.0680 – HK$0.1445 · the HK$0.5000 price screens above the HK$0.1020 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Pengo Holdings Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides infrastructural pipeline construction and related engineering services for gas, water, telecommunications, and power industries in Singapore and the People's Republic of China.
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It operates in two segments, Construction Contracts and Engineering Services, and Trading of Building Materials.
The company also engages in the money lending business; and provides engineering management and development consultation services, as well as offers infrastructural water and electricity pipeline construction and related engineering services. It serves government agencies and private companies.
The company was formerly known as Trendzon Holdings Group Limited and changed its name to Pengo Holdings Group Limited in April 2025. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865) currently trades at HK$0.5000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1020, 79.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1300 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.5000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0680 (bear) to HK$0.1445 (bull), the price of HK$0.5000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$77.0M in FY2026 versus HK$59.1M in FY2022, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$5.7M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$717M (≈ $91.4M) Micro · P/E ratio 3.1 · P/S ratio 7.97 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −7.4% · Return on equity −6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.5% · Operating margin 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −80%, 1865 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.0680Fair Value HK$0.1020BullHK$0.1445
Price HK$0.5000 · Upside -79.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$0.0900HK$0.1300HK$0.190080
Growth DCFHK$0.0900HK$0.1200HK$0.170079
5Y Revenue ExitHK$0.0800HK$0.1300HK$0.180072
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$0.0900HK$0.1300HK$0.190080
5Y Revenue ExitHK$0.0800HK$0.1300HK$0.180072
10Y Revenue ExitHK$0.0800HK$0.1200HK$0.170067
Multiples
EV/RevenueHK$0.0700HK$0.1000HK$0.120054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$0.0200HK$0.0400HK$0.050054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$0.0900HK$0.1200HK$0.170079
Rev-Margin DCFHK$0.0800HK$0.1300HK$0.180072
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.3% (2021) → −9.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.2% a year for the price.
Compare Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 786 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−79.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)55.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)3.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B8.93× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.27× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow69.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1865
Frequently asked questions
Is Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1020 versus a price of HK$0.5000, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1865?
Our model-based fair value for Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is HK$0.1020 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5000.
What is the quality score of 1865?
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1020 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0680, optimistic scenario HK$0.1445. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1020, about −80% upside versus a price of HK$0.5000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0680, optimistic scenario HK$0.1445. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$77.4M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.1 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1865 use?
Our models discount Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd that is +33.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd grew +12.1 % a year. The price currently implies +33.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (+33.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.95 %: that much free cash flow Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd it is HK$0.1020 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5000. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 1865 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5000, fair value HK$0.1020, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1865?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1020). For Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd the two are HK$0.3980 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd worth?
The market values Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd at about HK$717M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1020 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1865?
Our models span a range for Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0680, base HK$0.1020, optimistic HK$0.1445 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price HK$0.5000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1865?
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.1 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1020 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.9, P/S 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −6.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1865 from its 52-week high?
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd trades at HK$0.5000, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$0.6300 and 112% above the low of HK$0.2360 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1020 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price HK$0.5000, calculated fair value HK$0.1020 (−80%), Quality Score 51/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1865 calculated?
We run Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1020, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was HK$0.5000. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1020, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1445). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0680 to HK$0.1445) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The market capitalisation of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is HK$717M (≈ $91.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is 7.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Earnings per share at Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd are HK$−0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The net margin of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is −7.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is −6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is −3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
The operating margin of Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Revenue at Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd is growing +55.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865)?
Earnings per share at Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd are growing +56.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd (1865) hold?
Trendzon Holdings Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$4.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 4, 2026