Tokyo Chuo Auction Holdings Ltd (1939) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$241M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +4.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3700 – HK$10.20 · fair‑value band HK$0.1700 – HK$0.2500 · the HK$0.4250 price screens above the HK$0.2100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tokyo Chuo Auction Holdings Ltd (1939) currently trades at HK$0.4250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2100, implying the stock looks roughly 50.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tokyo Chuo Auction Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$107M at a net margin of -16.8%. Revenue grew 139.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$32.7M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1700 (bear case) to HK$0.2500 (bull case); at HK$0.4250, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -51%, 1939 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.5500) versus Multiples (HK$0.2500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shangshan Gold International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides auction, artwork sales, and related services in Hong Kong and Japan. It offers auctions for Chinese and Japanese artworks, such as paintings and calligraphies, antiques, and teawares under the Tokyo Chuo Auction brand name; and exhibition services.
Full company description
Shangshan Gold International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides auction, artwork sales, and related services in Hong Kong and Japan. It offers auctions for Chinese and Japanese artworks, such as paintings and calligraphies, antiques, and teawares under the Tokyo Chuo Auction brand name; and exhibition services. The company is also involved in the money lending services, as well as operates an online trading and information platform. Its customers primarily include sellers who consign artworks for art auction and related business; and buyers who purchase artworks in the art auctions, including artworks artists, masters, experts, merchants, collectors, art galleries, and private museums. The company was formerly known as Tokyo Chuo Auction Holdings Limited and changed its name to Shangshan Gold International Holdings Limited in August 2025. Shangshan Gold International Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tokyo Chuo Auction Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$62.1M in FY2025 versus HK$80.8M in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$19.5M in FY2025.
1939 screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$93.19 | C$75.00 | -20% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $245.15 | $162.63 | -34% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $531.89 | $475.40 | -11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | -27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $544.22 | $423.35 | -22% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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