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China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd (1969) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$1.1B

CC China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd 1969 · HK
PriceHK$1.09
Fair ValueHK$0.9240
Upside-15.2%
Quality55/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 46.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Wide moat 79/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.6928 – HK$1.92 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.01 to HK$0.9240 (−8.7%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +11.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.6928 to HK$1.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.19 HK$0.9000 Fair Value HK$0.9240 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9000 – HK$7.19 · fair‑value band HK$0.6928 – HK$1.92 · the HK$1.09 price screens above the HK$0.9240 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd (1969) currently trades at HK$1.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9240, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.9B at a net margin of 46.3%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at HK$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.6928 (bear case) to HK$1.92 (bull case); at HK$1.09, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -15%, 1969 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$7.28 HK$13.24 HK$21.64 80
Residual Income HK$3.93 HK$5.37 HK$17.33 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.51 HK$5.21 HK$7.60 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$7.56 HK$12.58 HK$24.30 38
Owner Earnings HK$6.63 HK$12.52 HK$22.68 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$3.51 HK$5.16 HK$7.25 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.49 HK$14.10 HK$22.89 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$9.69 HK$19.04 HK$30.55 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.86 HK$7.04 HK$10.13 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.41 HK$13.33 HK$23.23 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$8.79 HK$16.80 HK$29.61 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.68 HK$28.43 HK$39.65 54
Lynch FV HK$8.13 HK$11.61 HK$15.10 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.13 HK$11.61 HK$15.10 46
EPV HK$4.69 HK$5.31 HK$5.83 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.7400 HK$1.33 HK$1.83 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.7400 HK$1.21 HK$1.42 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$11.36 HK$15.15 HK$18.94 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.33 HK$1.77 HK$2.21 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.78 HK$11.71 HK$14.64 55
EV/EBIT HK$8.68 HK$11.53 HK$14.39 53
EV/EBITDA HK$7.92 HK$10.52 HK$13.12 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.37 HK$1.90 HK$2.43 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.92 HK$2.57 HK$3.84 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$7.28 HK$13.24 HK$21.64 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$3.51 HK$5.21 HK$7.60 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.93 HK$5.37 HK$17.33 76
ROIC Compounder HK$5.14 HK$6.85 HK$8.58 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$12.01 HK$17.16 HK$22.31 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$17.16) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.4%
Net margin 46.3%
Return on equity 18.6%
Free cash flow HK$752M FY2025
P/E ratio 1.1 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 47.7%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3500
EPS growth (YoY) +6.1%
Net debt HK$1.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 17
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates universities/colleges. It also participates in the operation of an independent college. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shangqiu, the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides private higher education services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates universities/colleges. It also participates in the operation of an independent college. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shangqiu, the People's Republic of China. China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Chunlai Investment Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$826M in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.8B
Latest YoY
+8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.3%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.1%
Revenue +14.2%/yr
FY21 HK$1.0B
FY22 HK$1.3B
FY23 HK$1.5B
FY24 HK$1.6B
FY25 HK$1.8B
Net income +8.0%/yr
FY21 HK$607M
FY22 HK$552M
FY23 HK$684M
FY24 HK$778M
FY25 HK$826M

1969 screens 15% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →

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China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.9240 −15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1969

Peer Group

Education & Training Services · 149 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −16% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 46% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 48% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.15× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 1.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.24× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.59× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 0.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 13 · sector 37
FUTURE 37 · sector 22
PAST 74 · sector 19
HEALTH 93 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN 966.48 MXN 875.84 MXN -9%
TAL Education Group TAL $11.87 $15.60 +31%
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR $36.99 $41.45 +12%
Physicswallah Limited PWL ₹123.90 ₹14.81 -88%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE $142.06 $152.01 +7%
Covista Inc CVSA $128.22 $135.45 +6%
Stride, Inc LRN $78.59 $139.45 +77%
Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI $25.64 $20.98 -18%
Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO $31.24 $40.65 +30%
Strategic Education, Inc STRA $79.98 $105.48 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd (1969) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.9240 versus a price of HK$1.09, about −15% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1969?
Our model-based fair value for China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd is HK$0.9240 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.09.
What is the quality score of 1969?
China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd (1969)?
China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1969?
The net profit margin of China Chunlai Education Group Co. Ltd is about 46.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 46.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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