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Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$1.1B

CM Cathay Media And Education Group In 1981 · HK
PriceHK$0.6550
Fair ValueHK$0.9656
Upside+47.4%
Quality77/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 38.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
8.97% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Wide moat 76/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.7450 – HK$1.18 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.9611 to HK$0.9656 (+0.5%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +0.8% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.7450). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.50 HK$0.5442 Fair Value HK$0.9656 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5442 – HK$5.50 · fair‑value band HK$0.7450 – HK$1.18 · the HK$0.6550 price screens below the HK$0.9656 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) currently trades at HK$0.6550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.9656, implying the stock looks roughly 47.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cathay Media And Education Group In generated revenue of HK$788M at a net margin of 38.2%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$866M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7450 (bear case) to HK$1.18 (bull case); at HK$0.6550, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 47%, 1981 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.71 HK$3.46 HK$4.37 80
Residual Income HK$1.32 HK$1.49 HK$2.44 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.98 HK$2.57 HK$3.22 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.69 HK$3.53 HK$4.61 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.58 HK$1.99 HK$2.51 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.98 HK$2.53 HK$3.20 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.60 HK$3.65 HK$4.84 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.00 HK$4.39 HK$5.80 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.23 HK$2.76 HK$3.40 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.61 HK$3.46 HK$4.52 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.85 HK$3.92 HK$5.17 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.26 HK$3.40 HK$4.46 54
Lynch FV HK$0.6700 HK$0.9500 HK$1.24 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.6700 HK$0.9500 HK$1.24 46
EPV HK$1.99 HK$2.19 HK$2.36 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.4300 HK$0.7800 HK$1.08 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4300 HK$0.6400 HK$0.8200 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.06 HK$4.08 HK$5.10 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.27 HK$1.70 HK$2.12 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.36 HK$3.15 HK$3.94 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.97 HK$3.78 HK$4.59 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.82 HK$3.58 HK$4.34 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.55 HK$1.99 HK$2.43 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.7500 HK$1.00 HK$1.50 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.71 HK$3.46 HK$4.37 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.98 HK$2.57 HK$3.22 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.32 HK$1.49 HK$2.44 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.05 HK$2.35 HK$2.67 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.40 HK$3.43 HK$4.47 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.46) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$788M
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.2%
Net margin 38.2%
Return on equity 12.9%
Free cash flow HK$384M FY2025
P/E ratio 3.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 43.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800
Dividend yield 9.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +303%
Net cash HK$866M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cathay Group Holdings Inc., an investment holding company, provides higher and vocational education services in Mainland China. The company offers higher education for the media and arts; and vocational education services.

Full company description

Cathay Group Holdings Inc., an investment holding company, provides higher and vocational education services in Mainland China. The company offers higher education for the media and arts; and vocational education services. It is also involved in the production and distribution of films, TV shows, TV series, web film, and media IP; livestreaming, e-commerce and artist management; film production; and provision of consulting services. The company was formerly known as Cathay Media and Education Group Inc. and changed its name to Cathay Group Holdings Inc. in April 2024. Cathay Group Holdings Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Cathay Group Holdings Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Cathay Media Holding Inc.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cathay Media And Education Group In reported revenue of HK$788M in FY2025 versus HK$578M in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$301M in FY2025, compounding +51.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$788M
Latest YoY
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Revenue +8.0%/yr
FY21 HK$578M
FY22 HK$657M
FY23 HK$759M
FY24 HK$782M
FY25 HK$788M
Net income +51.2%/yr
FY21 HK$57.5M
FY22 HK$96.5M
FY23 −HK$196M
FY24 HK$92.1M
FY25 HK$301M

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Cathay Media And Education Group In · Fair Value
HK$0.9656 +47%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cathay Media And Education Group In Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1981

Peer Group

Education & Training Services · 149 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +48% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.0% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.45× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.38× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 0.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 97 · sector 37
FUTURE 16 · sector 22
PAST 52 · sector 19
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN 966.48 MXN 875.84 MXN -9%
TAL Education Group TAL $11.87 $15.60 +31%
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR $36.99 $41.45 +12%
Physicswallah Limited PWL ₹123.90 ₹14.81 -88%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE $142.06 $152.01 +7%
Covista Inc CVSA $128.22 $135.45 +6%
Stride, Inc LRN $78.59 $139.45 +77%
Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI $25.64 $20.98 -18%
Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO $31.24 $40.65 +30%
Strategic Education, Inc STRA $79.98 $105.48 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.9656 versus a price of HK$0.6550, about +47% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1981?
Our model-based fair value for Cathay Media And Education Group In is HK$0.9656 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6550.
What is the quality score of 1981?
Cathay Media And Education Group In has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Cathay Media And Education Group In reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$788M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1981?
The net profit margin of Cathay Media And Education Group In is about 38.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 38.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Cathay Media And Education Group In pay a dividend?
Cathay Media And Education Group In currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.97% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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