Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Cathay Media And Education Group In HK$2.03, price HK$0.68, upside +200.0%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5442 – HK$4.95 · fair‑value band HK$1.55 – HK$2.63 · the HK$0.6750 price screens below the HK$2.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Cathay Group Holdings Inc., an investment holding company, provides higher and vocational education services in Mainland China. The company offers higher education for the media and arts; and vocational education services.
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Cathay Group Holdings Inc., an investment holding company, provides higher and vocational education services in Mainland China. The company offers higher education for the media and arts; and vocational education services. It is also involved in the production and distribution of films, TV shows, TV series, web film, and media IP; livestreaming, e-commerce and artist management; film production; and provision of consulting services. The company was formerly known as Cathay Media and Education Group Inc. and changed its name to Cathay Group Holdings Inc. in April 2024. Cathay Group Holdings Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. Cathay Group Holdings Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Cathay Media Holding Inc.
Stock analysis
Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) currently trades at HK$0.6750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.03, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$4.01 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$0.6750 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.6500, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.55 (bear) to HK$2.63 (bull), the price of HK$0.6750 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Cathay Media And Education Group In reported revenue of 788M CNY in FY2025 versus 578M CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was 301M CNY in FY2025, compounding +51.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $140M) · P/E ratio 3.2 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800 · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin 38.2% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 200%, 1981 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.55Fair Value HK$2.03Bull HK$2.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0143 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
’17
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’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 42%
2025 sits 220% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 126 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets6.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)38.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)43.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cathay Media And Education Group In Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1981
Frequently asked questions
Is Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.03 versus a price of HK$0.6750, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1981?
Our model-based fair value for Cathay Media And Education Group In is HK$2.03 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6750.
What is the quality score of 1981?
Cathay Media And Education Group In has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.03 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.55, optimistic scenario HK$2.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cathay Media And Education Group In stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.03, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$0.6750 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.55, optimistic scenario HK$2.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Cathay Media And Education Group In reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 788M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Cathay Media And Education Group In pay a dividend?
Cathay Media And Education Group In currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cathay Media And Education Group In would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1981 use?
Our models discount Cathay Media And Education Group In at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cathay Media And Education Group In that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cathay Media And Education Group In grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cathay Media And Education Group In (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 41.03 %: that much free cash flow Cathay Media And Education Group In produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cathay Media And Education Group In it is HK$2.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6750. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cathay Media And Education Group In stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1981 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6750, fair value HK$2.03, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1981?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.03). For Cathay Media And Education Group In the two are HK$1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cathay Media And Education Group In worth?
The market values Cathay Media And Education Group In at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6750; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1981?
Our models span a range for Cathay Media And Education Group In: cautious scenario HK$1.55, base HK$2.03, optimistic HK$2.63 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.6750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1981?
Cathay Media And Education Group In trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cathay Media And Education Group In (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1981 from its 52-week high?
Cathay Media And Education Group In trades at HK$0.6750, about 49% below its 52-week high of HK$1.32 and 21% above the low of HK$0.5600 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cathay Media And Education Group In?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cathay Media And Education Group In stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.6750, calculated fair value HK$2.03 (+200%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1981 calculated?
We run Cathay Media And Education Group In through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Cathay Media And Education Group In currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.6750. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.03, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cathay Media And Education Group In right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Cathay Media And Education Group In
How large is the market capitalisation of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The market capitalisation of Cathay Media And Education Group In is HK$1.1B (≈ $140M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cathay Media And Education Group In is 1.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Earnings per share at Cathay Media And Education Group In are HK$0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The dividend yield of Cathay Media And Education Group In is 9.0% (payout 76.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The net margin of Cathay Media And Education Group In is 38.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cathay Media And Education Group In is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cathay Media And Education Group In is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
The operating margin of Cathay Media And Education Group In is 43.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Revenue at Cathay Media And Education Group In is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981)?
Earnings per share at Cathay Media And Education Group In are growing +303% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cathay Media And Education Group In (1981) hold?
Cathay Media And Education Group In holds more cash than debt, 866M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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