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Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft €145, price €54.58, upside +165.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · IT · Home Germany · ISIN DE0005190003

BM Some data Oct 2, 2026

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

1BMW · MI

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value €145.08 · Strongly undervalued (+165.8%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −2.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!8.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€96.67 €51.17 Fair Value €145.08 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €51.17 – €96.67 · fair‑value band €137.35 – €157.52 · the €54.58 price screens below the €145.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Bayerische Motoren Werke develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke develops, manufactures, and sells automobiles and motorcycles, spare parts, and accessories worldwide. It operates through Automotive, Motorcycles, and Financial Services segments. The company offers automobiles under the BMW, MINI, and Rolls-Royce brands. It also develops, manufactures, and sells scooters, and motorcycles for private use and special-purpose vehicles for operational use under the BMW Motorrad brand. In addition, the company provides car rentals; credit financing; leasing that include insurance and service products; financing for dealership and customer deposits; vehicle fleet financing services for corporate car fleets under the Alphabet brand; and financial services for the automotive sector. It sells its products through retail outlet, agent, and independent dealerships. Bayerische Motoren Werke was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany.

Stock analysis

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW) currently trades at €54.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €145.08, implying the stock looks roughly 62.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €223.73 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the €54.58 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €48.04, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €137.35 (bear) to €157.52 (bull), the price of €54.58 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €133B in FY2025 versus €111B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €36.9B · P/E ratio 5.4 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) €11.19 · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 166%, 1BMW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €137.35 Fair Value €145.08 Bull €157.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€5.13 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €144.42 €154.59 €169.98 73
EPV €63.31 €85.89 €105.65 71
ROIC Compounder €63.31 €85.89 €105.65 69
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €23.67 €61.31 €131.02 67
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €89.49 €109.38 €123.05 65
EPV €63.31 €85.89 €105.65 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €43.89 €48.04 €54.36 67
DDM Multi-Stage €43.89 €55.06 €70.73 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple €217.15 €289.54 €361.92 63
P/S Multiple €167.80 €223.73 €279.66 58
P/B Multiple €167.80 €223.73 €279.66 55
EV/EBIT €170.93 €251.97 €333.01 65
EV/EBITDA €231.04 €332.12 €433.20 67
EV/Revenue €91.70 €161.93 €232.16 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €86.33 €115.69 €172.67 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €144.42 €154.59 €169.98 73
ROIC Compounder €63.31 €85.89 €105.65 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €153.07 €218.68 €284.28 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 8%

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft · Fair Value
€145.08 +62%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1BMW

Frequently asked questions

Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €145.08 versus a price of €54.58, about +166% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1BMW?
Our model-based fair value for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €145.08 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €54.58.
What is the quality score of 1BMW?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €145.08 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €137.35, optimistic scenario €157.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €145.08, about +166% upside versus a price of €54.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €137.35, optimistic scenario €157.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €131B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft pay a dividend?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft it is €145.08 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €54.58. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1BMW trades below its calculated fair value: price €54.58, fair value €145.08, a gap of about +166% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1BMW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€54.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€145.08). For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft the two are €90.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft at about €36.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €54.58; our models calculate a fair value of €145.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1BMW?
Our models span a range for Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €137.35, base €145.08, optimistic €157.52 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €54.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1BMW from its 52-week high?
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft trades at €54.58, about 41% below its 52-week high of €92.15 and at the low of €54.42 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €145.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €54.58, calculated fair value €145.08 (+166%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1BMW calculated?
We run Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €145.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €54.58. Our model-based fair value is €145.08, about +166% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€137.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (€137.35 to €157.52), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

How large is the market capitalisation of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The market capitalisation of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €36.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 5.4 (as of Jul 3, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
Earnings per share at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft are €11.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The dividend yield of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 8.1% (payout 39.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The net margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 5.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
The operating margin of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
Revenue at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW)?
Earnings per share at Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft are growing +21.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW) generate?
The free cash flow of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is −€2.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (1BMW) carry?
The net debt of Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft is €67.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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