EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Microsoft Corporation €300, price €458, upside -34.6%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · IT · ISIN US5949181045

MC Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Microsoft Corporation

1MSFT · MI

Overvalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €299.62 · Overvalued (−34.6%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +12.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 39.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 98/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€465.49 €203.18 Fair Value €299.62 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €203.18 – €465.49 · fair‑value band €173.10 – €471.24 · the €457.75 price screens above the €299.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide.

Show more

Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The Personal Computing segment provides windows and devices, such as Windows OEM licensing and devices and surface and PC accessories; gaming services and solutions, such as Xbox hardware, content, and services, first- and third-party content Xbox game pass, subscriptions, and cloud gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; search and news advertising services. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and online and retail stores. The company has a strategic collaboration with Mayo Clinic, Inc. for the development of a frontier AI model for healthcare; and Global Objects, Inc. to build a retrieval-grounded generative AI world model. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

Stock analysis

Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT) currently trades at €457.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €299.62, 34.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €211.96 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €457.75 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €49.54, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €173.10 (bear) to €471.24 (bull), the price of €457.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Microsoft Corporation reported revenue of $282B in FY2025 versus $198B in FY2022, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $102B in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €3.4T · P/E ratio 31.1 · P/S ratio 11.2 · EPS (TTM) €14.73 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 36.1% · Return on equity 34.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −35%, 1MSFT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €173.10 Fair Value €299.62 Bull €471.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€11.17 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €125.56 €250.60 €491.07 72
EPV €120.23 €141.66 €160.71 71
Growth DCF €123.62 €236.00 €447.05 71
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €125.56 €250.60 €491.07 72
Owner Earnings €125.26 €249.99 €489.89 69
5Y Revenue Exit €56.43 €87.70 €128.22 69
5Y EBITDA Exit €94.36 €169.17 €264.77 70
5Y P/E Exit €121.09 €226.57 €351.40 66
10Y Revenue Exit €76.18 €114.99 €172.03 63
10Y EBITDA Exit €103.41 €177.53 €293.79 64
10Y P/E Exit €121.85 €221.59 €371.03 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €82.80 €439.11 €608.05 61
Lynch FV €120.96 €172.79 €224.63 58
PEG = 1.0 €120.96 €172.79 €224.63 55
EPV €120.23 €141.66 €160.71 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €27.70 €60.47 €101.75 63
DDM Multi-Stage €27.70 €49.54 €63.02 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple €127.86 €170.48 €213.10 63
P/S Multiple €30.32 €40.43 €50.53 58
P/B Multiple €55.45 €73.93 €92.42 55
EV/EBIT €114.09 €152.51 €190.93 66
EV/EBITDA €86.36 €115.54 €144.72 67
EV/Revenue €27.11 €39.24 €51.37 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €20.54 €27.52 €41.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €123.62 €236.00 €447.05 71
Rev-Margin DCF €56.43 €88.14 €131.00 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income €78.11 €116.09 €265.87 66
ROIC Compounder €139.78 €191.56 €259.18 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €148.37 €211.96 €275.54 65

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when 1MSFT reaches fair value

Put 1MSFT on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 1
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 46%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.8% a year for the price and +11.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+16.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+16.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+14.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+13.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.2%

1MSFT screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Palantir Technologies Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare Microsoft Corporation with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $187.05 $42.16 −77%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $137.30 $112.26 −18%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $264.75 $37.31 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $176.33 $164.68 −7%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $434.94 $249.20 −43%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $87.12 $58.32 −33%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.04 $76.95 +4%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $204.41 $157.26 −23%
Okta, Inc OKTA $202.18 $142.12 −30%
MongoDB, Inc MDB $334.68 $130.27 −61%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Technology stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Microsoft Corporation · Fair Value
€299.62 −35%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Microsoft Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1MSFT

Frequently asked questions

Is Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €299.62 versus a price of €457.75, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1MSFT?
Our model-based fair value for Microsoft Corporation is €299.62 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €457.75.
What is the quality score of 1MSFT?
Microsoft Corporation has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €299.62 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €173.10, optimistic scenario €471.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Microsoft Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €299.62, about −35% upside versus a price of €457.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €173.10, optimistic scenario €471.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
Microsoft Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $318B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Microsoft Corporation pay a dividend?
Microsoft Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Microsoft Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +32.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1MSFT use?
Our models discount Microsoft Corporation at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Microsoft Corporation that is +32.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Microsoft Corporation grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +32.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Microsoft Corporation (+32.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.87 %: that much free cash flow Microsoft Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Microsoft Corporation it is €299.62 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €457.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Microsoft Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 1MSFT trades above its calculated fair value: price €457.75, fair value €299.62, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1MSFT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€457.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€299.62). For Microsoft Corporation the two are €158.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Microsoft Corporation worth?
The market values Microsoft Corporation at about €3.4T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €457.75; our models calculate a fair value of €299.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1MSFT?
Our models span a range for Microsoft Corporation: cautious scenario €173.10, base €299.62, optimistic €471.24 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €457.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1MSFT from its 52-week high?
Microsoft Corporation trades at €457.75, about 1% below its 52-week high of €462.18 and 47% above the low of €311.97 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €299.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Microsoft Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, Fortinet, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Microsoft Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €457.75, calculated fair value €299.62 (−35%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1MSFT calculated?
We run Microsoft Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €299.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Microsoft Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €457.75. Our model-based fair value is €299.62, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Microsoft Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€173.10 to €471.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Microsoft Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The market capitalisation of Microsoft Corporation is €3.4T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Microsoft Corporation is 31.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Microsoft Corporation is 11.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
Earnings per share at Microsoft Corporation are €14.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The dividend yield of Microsoft Corporation is 0.8% (payout 24.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The net margin of Microsoft Corporation is 36.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Microsoft Corporation is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Microsoft Corporation is 21.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
The operating margin of Microsoft Corporation is 46.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
Revenue at Microsoft Corporation is growing +18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT)?
Earnings per share at Microsoft Corporation are growing +23.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Microsoft Corporation (1MSFT) carry?
The net debt of Microsoft Corporation is $12.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Continue in the live analysis

Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Open the live analysis →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.