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Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company (200869) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap HK$5.4B

PriceHK$8.22
Fair ValueHK$6.02
Upside-26.8%
Quality93/100
Evidence: High Range HK$4.90 – HK$7.14

Analysis

Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company (200869) currently trades at HK$8.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.02 — implying the stock looks roughly 26.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 93/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

About the company

Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells wine, brandy, and sparkling wine in China, France, Spain, Chile, and Australia. The company operates under the Changyu, Noble Dragon, AFIP, Longyu, Long Tailed Cat, Golden Icewine Valley, Zenithwirl, Vermouth, Rena, Baron Balboa, Donelly, Atrio, Kilikanoon, IWCC, Koya, Liquan, Mminni, Pagese, Roullet Fransac, and other names. It is also involved in grape growing and acquisition, and travel resource development activities. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Yantai, China. Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Yantai Changyu Group Company Limited.

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.