Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine HK$7.94, price HK$7.89, upside +0.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.65 – HK$12.36 · fair‑value band HK$6.74 – HK$7.94 · the HK$7.89 price screens below the HK$7.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells wine, brandy, and sparkling wine in China, France, Spain, Chile, and Australia.
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Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells wine, brandy, and sparkling wine in China, France, Spain, Chile, and Australia. The company operates under the Changyu, Noble Dragon, AFIP, Longyu, Long Tailed Cat, Golden Icewine Valley, Zenithwirl, Vermouth, Rena, Baron Balboa, Donelly, Atrio, Kilikanoon, IWCC, Koya, Liquan, Mminni, Pagese, Roullet Fransac, and other names. It is also involved in grape growing and acquisition, and travel resource development activities. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Yantai, China. Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Yantai Changyu Group Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) currently trades at HK$7.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.94, implying the stock looks roughly 0.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$10.55 per share, and 8 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$7.89 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.66, and 15 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$6.74 (bear) to HK$7.94 (bull), the price of HK$7.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 71.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −38.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$5.2B (≈ $661M) · P/E ratio 68.6 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1200 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 1%, 200869 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.74Fair Value HK$7.94Bull HK$7.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32% vs −23%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.2% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
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Is Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.94 versus a price of HK$7.89, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 200869?
Our model-based fair value for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is HK$7.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$7.89.
What is the quality score of 200869?
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.74, optimistic scenario HK$7.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.94, about +1% upside versus a price of HK$7.89 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$6.74, optimistic scenario HK$7.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine pay a dividend?
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine would have to grow free cash flow by -2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 200869 use?
Our models discount Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine that is -2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine grew -2.5 % a year. The price currently implies -2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (-2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.25 %: that much free cash flow Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine it is HK$7.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of HK$7.89. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 200869 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$7.89, fair value HK$7.94, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200869?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$7.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.94). For Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine the two are HK$0.0500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine worth?
The market values Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine at about HK$5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is HK$7.89; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200869?
Our models span a range for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine: cautious scenario HK$6.74, base HK$7.94, optimistic HK$7.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price HK$7.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200869?
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 68.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$7.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 200869?
The PEG ratio of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200869 from its 52-week high?
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine trades at HK$7.89, about 6% below its 52-week high of HK$8.43 and 10% above the low of HK$7.18 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price HK$7.89, calculated fair value HK$7.94 (+1%), Quality Score 64/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200869 calculated?
We run Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$7.89. Our model-based fair value is HK$7.94, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) come from?
Earnings per share at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine grew −9.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.4 %, EBIT margin −7.2 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine
How large is the market capitalisation of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The market capitalisation of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is HK$5.2B (≈ $661M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Earnings per share at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine are HK$0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 68.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The dividend yield of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The net margin of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
The operating margin of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is 24.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Revenue at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869)?
Earnings per share at Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine are growing −4.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (200869) hold?
Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine holds more cash than debt, HK$1.5B net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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