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Diageo plc (DEON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 9, 2026: fair value of Diageo plc MXN 1,604, price MXN 1,458, upside +10.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Diageo plc
DEON · MXNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value 1,604 MXN · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!0.1% dividend yield · Token dividend
✓Wide moat 71/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,279 MXN – 4,026 MXN · fair‑value band 820.50 MXN – 2,575 MXN · the 1,458 MXN price screens below the 1,604 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa.
Show more
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Diageo plc (DEON) currently trades at 1,458 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,604 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1,306 MXN per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the 1,458 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 242.53 MXN, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 820.50 MXN (bear) to 2,575 MXN (bull), the price of 1,458 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Diageo plc reported revenue of $20.2B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 783B MXN (≈ $43.1B) · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 2.23 · EPS (TTM) 75.87 MXN · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 19.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 10%, DEON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 820.50 MXN
Fair Value 1,604 MXN
Bull 2,575 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (75.04 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
751.72 MXN
1,599 MXN
2,941 MXN
76
Residual Income
473.29 MXN
569.30 MXN
839.07 MXN
75
Growth DCF
766.00 MXN
1,601 MXN
2,922 MXN
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
751.72 MXN
1,599 MXN
2,941 MXN
76
Owner Earnings
665.36 MXN
1,459 MXN
2,716 MXN
72
5Y Revenue Exit
295.67 MXN
765.91 MXN
1,361 MXN
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
996.74 MXN
2,114 MXN
3,445 MXN
72
5Y P/E Exit
572.29 MXN
1,298 MXN
2,072 MXN
68
10Y Revenue Exit
423.25 MXN
900.06 MXN
1,540 MXN
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
896.93 MXN
1,850 MXN
3,172 MXN
65
10Y P/E Exit
623.38 MXN
1,275 MXN
2,097 MXN
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
522.49 MXN
1,847 MXN
2,485 MXN
64
Lynch FV
432.44 MXN
617.77 MXN
803.10 MXN
61
PEG = 1.0
432.44 MXN
617.77 MXN
803.10 MXN
57
EPV
438.29 MXN
612.64 MXN
765.19 MXN
73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
688.72 MXN
1,432 MXN
2,272 MXN
66
DDM Multi-Stage
688.72 MXN
1,207 MXN
1,503 MXN
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
1,210 MXN
1,614 MXN
2,017 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
792.98 MXN
1,057 MXN
1,322 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
979.67 MXN
1,306 MXN
1,633 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
1,196 MXN
1,798 MXN
2,399 MXN
65
EV/EBITDA
1,319 MXN
1,961 MXN
2,603 MXN
66
EV/Revenue
86.08 MXN
383.45 MXN
680.82 MXN
48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
180.99 MXN
242.53 MXN
361.99 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
766.00 MXN
1,601 MXN
2,922 MXN
74
Rev-Margin DCF
295.67 MXN
774.56 MXN
1,349 MXN
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
473.29 MXN
569.30 MXN
839.07 MXN
75
ROIC Compounder
464.83 MXN
786.11 MXN
1,223 MXN
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
835.81 MXN
1,194 MXN
1,552 MXN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
56/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.8% a year for the price and −4.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−2.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−1.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.8%
Watch DEON, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- What Does Diageo (LSE:DGE) Gain From Its Sabrina Carpenter Tie Up?
- Strike to bring production ‘to a standstill’ at Diageo distillery, says union
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
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Frequently asked questions
Is Diageo plc (DEON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,604 MXN versus the last price from Sep 9, 2026 of 1,458 MXN, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DEON?
Our model-based fair value for Diageo plc is 1,604 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 9, 2026): 1,458 MXN.
What is the quality score of DEON?
Diageo plc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Diageo plc (DEON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,604 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 820.50 MXN, optimistic scenario 2,575 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Diageo plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,604 MXN, about +10% upside versus the last price from Sep 9, 2026 of 1,458 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 820.50 MXN, optimistic scenario 2,575 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Diageo plc (DEON)?
Diageo plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Diageo plc pay a dividend?
Diageo plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Diageo plc (DEON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Diageo plc would have to grow free cash flow by +36.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DEON use?
Our models discount Diageo plc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Diageo plc that is +36.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Diageo plc (DEON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Diageo plc grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +36.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Diageo plc (DEON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Diageo plc (+36.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.50 %: that much free cash flow Diageo plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Diageo plc (DEON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Diageo plc it is 1,604 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 1,458 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Diageo plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, DEON trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,458 MXN, fair value 1,604 MXN, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DEON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,458 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,604 MXN). For Diageo plc the two are 145.80 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Diageo plc worth?
The market values Diageo plc at about 783B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 1,458 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 1,604 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DEON?
Our models span a range for Diageo plc: cautious scenario 820.50 MXN, base 1,604 MXN, optimistic 2,575 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 1,458 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is DEON from its 52-week high?
Diageo plc trades at 1,458 MXN, about 27% below its 52-week high of 1,992 MXN and 14% above the low of 1,279 MXN (as of Sep 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,604 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Diageo plc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Diageo plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 1,458 MXN, calculated fair value 1,604 MXN (+10%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DEON calculated?
We run Diageo plc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,604 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Diageo plc currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 9, 2026 and stands at 1,458 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 1,604 MXN, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Diageo plc right now?
The model range is unusually wide (820.50 MXN to 2,575 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Diageo plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The market capitalisation of Diageo plc is 783B MXN (≈ $43.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Diageo plc is 19.2. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Diageo plc is 2.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Diageo plc (DEON)?
Earnings per share at Diageo plc are 75.87 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The dividend yield of Diageo plc is 0.1% (payout 1.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The net margin of Diageo plc is 11.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Diageo plc is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Diageo plc (DEON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Diageo plc is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Diageo plc (DEON)?
The operating margin of Diageo plc is 31.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Diageo plc (DEON)?
Revenue at Diageo plc is growing −4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Diageo plc (DEON)?
Earnings per share at Diageo plc are growing +2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Diageo plc (DEON) carry?
The net debt of Diageo plc is $21.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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