Diageo plc (DEON) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · MX · Market cap 783B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 1,240 MXN to 1,239 MXN (−0.1%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +7.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (627.71 MXN to 1,936 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,279 MXN – 4,026 MXN · fair‑value band 627.71 MXN – 1,936 MXN · the 1,487 MXN price screens above the 1,239 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Diageo plc (DEON) currently trades at 1,487 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,239 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Diageo plc generated revenue of 19.8B MXN at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.7%. Net debt stands at 21.5B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 627.71 MXN (bear case) to 1,936 MXN (bull case); at 1,487 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at -17%, DEON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (1,346 MXN) versus Asset-Based (250.05 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa.
Full company description
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Diageo plc reported revenue of 20.2B MXN in FY2025 versus 12.7B MXN in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B MXN in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.
DEON screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Diageo to Report FY26 Earnings: What Should Investors Know?
- Guinness-owner Diageo poaches P&G exec as City awaits turnaround plan
- Diageo Exec at Global Game Summit Our Brands Need to Be at ‘Center of Culture’
- Global Game Summit: Diageo SVP on Why Tequilia's the Perfect World Cup Companion
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥79.23 | ¥128.26 | +62% |
Compare Diageo plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Diageo plc (DEON) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of DEON?
What is the quality score of DEON?
What is the revenue of Diageo plc (DEON)?
What is the net profit margin of DEON?
Does Diageo plc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Diageo plc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.