Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥37.64 – ¥189.08 · fair‑value band ¥19.48 – ¥25.55 · the ¥38.06 price screens above the ¥24.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands.
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Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. in June 2024. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Suqian, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) currently trades at ¥38.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥24.64, implying the stock looks roughly 54.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥72.53 per share, and 4 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥38.06 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥10.60, and 13 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥19.48 (bear) to ¥25.55 (bull), the price of ¥38.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd reported revenue of 19.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 25.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 57.3B CNY (≈ $8.6B) · P/E ratio 56.0 · P/S ratio 6.43 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6800 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at −35%, 002304 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥19.48Fair Value ¥24.64Bull ¥25.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 17%
Compare Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 97 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002304
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥24.64 versus a price of ¥38.06, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002304?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is ¥24.64 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥38.06.
What is the quality score of 002304?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥24.64 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥19.48, optimistic scenario ¥25.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥24.64, about −35% upside versus a price of ¥38.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥19.48, optimistic scenario ¥25.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd it is ¥24.64 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥38.06. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 002304 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥38.06, fair value ¥24.64, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002304?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥38.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥24.64). For Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd the two are ¥13.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd worth?
The market values Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd at about 57.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥38.06; our models calculate a fair value of ¥24.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002304?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥19.48, base ¥24.64, optimistic ¥25.55 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥38.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002304?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥24.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 18.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 002304?
The PEG ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 0.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002304 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd trades at ¥38.06, about 50% below its 52-week high of ¥75.50 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥24.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Diageo plc, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥38.06, calculated fair value ¥24.64 (−35%), Quality Score 56/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002304 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥24.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥38.06. Our model-based fair value is ¥24.64, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥25.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) come from?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd grew +6.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 57.3B CNY (≈ $8.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 6.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd are ¥0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 3.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 11.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 39.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is growing −26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd are growing −32.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is −1.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) hold?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 21.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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