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Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co (002304) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 57.4B CNY

JY Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 · SHE
Price¥40.88
Fair Value¥27.82
Upside-32.0%
Quality49/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
3.80% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Moderate moat 51/100
Evidence: High Range ¥23.06 – ¥36.17 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +7.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 32% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥36.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥189.08 ¥37.64 Fair Value ¥27.82 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥37.64 – ¥189.08 · fair‑value band ¥23.06 – ¥36.17 · the ¥40.88 price screens above the ¥27.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co (002304) currently trades at ¥40.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥27.82, implying the stock looks roughly 32.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co generated revenue of 16.3B CNY at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 21.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥23.06 (bear case) to ¥36.17 (bull case); at ¥40.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at -32%, 002304 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥23.88 ¥24.32 ¥23.24 76
ROIC Compounder ¥19.02 ¥20.74 ¥22.24 72
Gordon GGM ¥42.68 ¥88.73 ¥140.77 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥26.00 ¥36.12 ¥51.83 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥9.96 ¥32.90 ¥44.02 54
Lynch FV ¥7.42 ¥10.60 ¥13.78 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.42 ¥10.60 ¥13.78 46
EPV ¥19.02 ¥20.74 ¥22.24 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥42.68 ¥88.73 ¥140.77 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥42.68 ¥72.53 ¥93.13 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥21.97 ¥29.29 ¥36.61 63
P/S Multiple ¥18.67 ¥24.90 ¥31.12 58
P/B Multiple ¥18.67 ¥24.90 ¥31.12 55
EV/EBIT ¥37.88 ¥47.59 ¥57.30 53
EV/EBITDA ¥34.47 ¥43.05 ¥51.62 54
EV/Revenue ¥28.38 ¥36.80 ¥45.21 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥15.53 ¥20.81 ¥31.06 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥23.88 ¥24.32 ¥23.24 76
ROIC Compounder ¥19.02 ¥20.74 ¥22.24 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥18.66 ¥26.65 ¥34.65 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥72.53) versus Earnings-Based (¥10.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 16.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -26.0%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 2.0%
Free cash flow −1.4B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 63.7
More key figures
Operating margin 39.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.6800
Dividend yield 3.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -32.7%
Net cash 21.7B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 2
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands.

Full company description

Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. in June 2024. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Suqian, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co reported revenue of ¥19.2B in FY2025 versus ¥25.4B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.2B in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 14/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
19.2B CNY
Latest YoY
−33.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−13.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+16.4%
Revenue −6.7%/yr
FY21 ¥25.4B
FY22 ¥30.1B
FY23 ¥33.1B
FY24 ¥28.9B
FY25 ¥19.2B
Net income −26.4%/yr
FY21 ¥7.5B
FY22 ¥9.4B
FY23 ¥10.0B
FY24 ¥6.7B
FY25 ¥2.2B

002304 screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002304

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −32% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -26% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 56.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.51× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.82× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 8 · sector 17
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 76 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,251 ¥1,238 -1%
Diageo plc DEON 1,487 MXN 1,239 MXN -17%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥73.69 ¥48.44 -34%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥110.50 ¥185.80 +68%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €65.24 €76.68 +18%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥83.12 ¥149.17 +79%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $26.60 $28.15 +6%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,376 ₹440.56 -68%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4450 SGD 0.6900 SGD +55%
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 ¥79.23 ¥128.26 +62%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co (002304) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥27.82 versus a price of ¥40.88, about −32% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002304?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co is ¥27.82 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥40.88.
What is the quality score of 002304?
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co has a Quality Score of 49/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co (002304)?
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002304?
The net profit margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.42% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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