Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co (002304) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 57.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +7.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥36.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥37.64 – ¥189.08 · fair‑value band ¥23.06 – ¥36.17 · the ¥40.88 price screens above the ¥27.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co (002304) currently trades at ¥40.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥27.82, implying the stock looks roughly 32.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co generated revenue of 16.3B CNY at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 21.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥23.06 (bear case) to ¥36.17 (bull case); at ¥40.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at -32%, 002304 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥72.53) versus Earnings-Based (¥10.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands.
Full company description
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. in June 2024. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Suqian, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co reported revenue of ¥19.2B in FY2025 versus ¥25.4B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.2B in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
002304 screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥79.23 | ¥128.26 | +62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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