Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Ceramic Co. stock SAR 11.91, price SAR 21.58, upside -44.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.22 SAR – 49.42 SAR · fair‑value band 8.52 SAR – 16.70 SAR · the 21.58 SAR price screens above the 11.91 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Saudi Ceramic Company engages in the production and sale of ceramic products, water heaters, and related component in Saudi Arabia and internationally.
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The company offers ceramic, porcelain, outdoor, and swimming pool tiles; sanitary ware products comprising wash basins, water closets, wall hangings, and above counters; bathroom furniture and accessories, including bathtubs, shower trays, taps, and seat covers; red bricks; bathroom fixtures and finishes; and industrial minerals, such as limestone, silica sands, kaolin, feldspar, clay, dolomite, and calcite.
It also sells its products online. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040) currently trades at 21.58 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.91 SAR, 44.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 29.42 SAR per share, and 6 of the 15 models we run sit above the 21.58 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 5.52 SAR, and 9 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 8.52 SAR (bear) to 16.70 SAR (bull), the price of 21.58 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Saudi Ceramic Co. reported revenue of 1.5B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.5B SAR in FY2021, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 181M SAR in FY2025, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.2B SAR (≈ $574M) Small · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 1.37 · EPS (TTM) 0.9000 SAR · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −45%, 2040 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear8.52 SARFair Value 11.91 SARBull16.70 SAR
Price 21.58 SAR · Upside -44.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3310 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings10.02 SAR14.01 SAR19.65 SAR77
Residual Income13.88 SAR15.48 SAR18.89 SAR76
EPV5.00 SAR6.04 SAR6.92 SAR74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings10.02 SAR14.01 SAR19.65 SAR77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd12.33 SAR24.21 SAR30.32 SAR66
EPV5.00 SAR6.04 SAR6.92 SAR74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM4.10 SAR5.56 SAR6.93 SAR69
DDM Multi-Stage4.10 SAR5.52 SAR7.04 SAR67
Multiples
P/E Multiple28.55 SAR38.07 SAR47.58 SAR63
P/S Multiple22.43 SAR29.90 SAR37.38 SAR58
P/B Multiple52.26 SAR69.68 SAR87.10 SAR55
EV/EBIT3.93 SAR7.92 SAR11.91 SAR63
EV/EBITDA16.87 SAR25.17 SAR33.48 SAR66
EV/Revenue0.5000 SAR4.16 SAR7.82 SAR47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)7.74 SAR10.37 SAR15.48 SAR54
Economic Profit
Residual Income13.88 SAR15.48 SAR18.89 SAR76
ROIC Compounder5.00 SAR6.04 SAR6.92 SAR72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E20.60 SAR29.42 SAR38.25 SAR67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.1% vs −6.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Return on assets6.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.37× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)46· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.91 SAR versus a price of 21.58 SAR, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2040?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Ceramic Co. is 11.91 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21.58 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2040?
Saudi Ceramic Co. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.91 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.52 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.70 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Ceramic Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.91 SAR, about −45% upside versus a price of 21.58 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.52 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.70 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Saudi Ceramic Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Saudi Ceramic Co. pay a dividend?
Saudi Ceramic Co. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Ceramic Co. it is 11.91 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 21.58 SAR. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Ceramic Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 2040 trades above its calculated fair value: price 21.58 SAR, fair value 11.91 SAR, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2040?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21.58 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.91 SAR). For Saudi Ceramic Co. the two are 9.67 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Ceramic Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Ceramic Co. at about 2.2B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 21.58 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 11.91 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2040?
Our models span a range for Saudi Ceramic Co.: cautious scenario 8.52 SAR, base 11.91 SAR, optimistic 16.70 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 21.58 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2040?
Saudi Ceramic Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.91 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Ceramic Co. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2040 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Ceramic Co. trades at 21.58 SAR, about 30% below its 52-week high of 30.80 SAR and 22% above the low of 17.62 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.91 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Ceramic Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Ceramic Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 21.58 SAR, calculated fair value 11.91 SAR (−45%), Quality Score 45/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2040 calculated?
We run Saudi Ceramic Co. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.91 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Ceramic Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 21.58 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 11.91 SAR, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Ceramic Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (16.70 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (8.52 SAR to 16.70 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Saudi Ceramic Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 2.2B SAR (≈ $574M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 1.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Ceramic Co. are 0.9000 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 2.3% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The net margin of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
The operating margin of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Revenue at Saudi Ceramic Co. is growing +30.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Ceramic Co. are growing −82.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040) generate?
The free cash flow of Saudi Ceramic Co. is −25.1M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Saudi Ceramic Co. (2040) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Ceramic Co. is 802M SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 28, 2026