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Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Canggang Railway Ltd HK$0.19, price HK$0.54, upside -64.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG1820D1007

CR Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Canggang Railway Ltd

2169 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$0.1900 · Strongly overvalued (−64.8%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +7.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$3.18 HK$0.2799 Fair Value HK$0.1900 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2799 – HK$3.18 · fair‑value band HK$0.1800 – HK$0.2500 · the HK$0.5400 price screens above the HK$0.1900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Canggang Railway Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of local railway in China. The company operates in two segments, Rail Freight Transportation and Ancillary Services.

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Canggang Railway Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of local railway in China. The company operates in two segments, Rail Freight Transportation and Ancillary Services. It offers rail freight transportation services for various cargo, including coal, petroleum, ore, PVC, asphalt, and gravel, as well as gasoline, diesel oil, naphtha, and methyl tert-butyl ether. The company also provides ancillary services, such as freight loading and unloading; construction, maintenance, and repair services; car arrival services; freight agency; antifreeze treatment and scattering prevention of coal services; and coal filtering services. In addition, it is involved in the operation of freight railway and railway yards; provision of logistics agency services; trading business; and supply chain management services. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Cangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) currently trades at HK$0.5400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1900, 64.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3000 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.5400 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.0500, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1800 (bear) to HK$0.2500 (bull), the price of HK$0.5400 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Canggang Railway Ltd reported revenue of 278M CNY in FY2025 versus 356M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 57.9M CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.1B (≈ $265M) · P/E ratio 26.5 · P/S ratio 5.51 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 20.8% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −65%, 2169 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1800 Fair Value HK$0.1900 Bull HK$0.2500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.1800 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2000 76
EPV HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 72
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 67
EPV HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0500 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0700 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.2800 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4600 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.1300 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2100 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.2200 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3700 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.3400 HK$0.4700 HK$0.6100 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.3500 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6200 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.0400 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1300 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1200 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2500 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1800 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2000 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2000 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3600 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 42/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 37%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 24.1%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

2169 screens overvalued: fair value 65% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −64.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.0% · Below median
Return on assets 3.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 20.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.39× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.38× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 19.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)77 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)81 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $273.79 $153.47 −44%
CSX Corporation CSX $46.78 $12.91 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $86.56 $37.51 −57%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $121.14 $98.68 −19%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $313.00 $133.05 −57%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $288.00 $290.92 +1%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.69 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.97 ¥9.21 +54%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.66 ¥5.48 +18%
Getlink SE GET €18.83 €10.42 −45%

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Canggang Railway Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1900 −65%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canggang Railway Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2169

Frequently asked questions

Is Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1900 versus a price of HK$0.5400, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2169?
Our model-based fair value for Canggang Railway Ltd is HK$0.1900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5400.
What is the quality score of 2169?
Canggang Railway Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1800, optimistic scenario HK$0.2500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canggang Railway Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1900, about −65% upside versus a price of HK$0.5400 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1800, optimistic scenario HK$0.2500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Canggang Railway Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 278M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Canggang Railway Ltd pay a dividend?
Canggang Railway Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canggang Railway Ltd it is HK$0.1900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5400. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canggang Railway Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2169 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5400, fair value HK$0.1900, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2169?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1900). For Canggang Railway Ltd the two are HK$0.3500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canggang Railway Ltd worth?
The market values Canggang Railway Ltd at about HK$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2169?
Our models span a range for Canggang Railway Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1800, base HK$0.1900, optimistic HK$0.2500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2169?
Canggang Railway Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 19.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Balance-sheet figures for Canggang Railway Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2169 from its 52-week high?
Canggang Railway Ltd trades at HK$0.5400, about 37% below its 52-week high of HK$0.8600 and 17% above the low of HK$0.4600 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canggang Railway Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canggang Railway Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5400, calculated fair value HK$0.1900 (−65%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2169 calculated?
We run Canggang Railway Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Canggang Railway Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.5400. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1900, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canggang Railway Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Canggang Railway Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The market capitalisation of Canggang Railway Ltd is HK$2.1B (≈ $265M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canggang Railway Ltd is 5.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Earnings per share at Canggang Railway Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The dividend yield of Canggang Railway Ltd is 1.1% (payout 61.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The net margin of Canggang Railway Ltd is 20.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canggang Railway Ltd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canggang Railway Ltd is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
The operating margin of Canggang Railway Ltd is 20.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Revenue at Canggang Railway Ltd is growing +15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canggang Railway Ltd (2169)?
Earnings per share at Canggang Railway Ltd are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) generate?
The free cash flow of Canggang Railway Ltd is −49.1M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) carry?
The net debt of Canggang Railway Ltd is 425M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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