Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$2.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −5.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1900 to HK$0.3600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2705 – HK$3.18 · fair‑value band HK$0.1900 – HK$0.3600 · the HK$0.4700 price screens above the HK$0.2800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Canggang Railway Ltd (2169) currently trades at HK$0.4700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2800, implying the stock looks roughly 40.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canggang Railway Ltd generated revenue of HK$278M at a net margin of 20.8%. Revenue grew 15.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at HK$425M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1900 (bear case) to HK$0.3600 (bull case); at HK$0.4700, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -40%, 2169 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.2600) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canggang Railway Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of local railway in China. The company operates in two segments, Rail Freight Transportation and Ancillary Services.
Full company description
Canggang Railway Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of local railway in China. The company operates in two segments, Rail Freight Transportation and Ancillary Services. It offers rail freight transportation services for various cargo, including coal, petroleum, ore, PVC, asphalt, and gravel, as well as gasoline, diesel oil, naphtha, and methyl tert-butyl ether. The company also provides ancillary services, such as freight loading and unloading; construction, maintenance, and repair services; car arrival services; freight agency; antifreeze treatment and scattering prevention of coal services; and coal filtering services. In addition, it is involved in the operation of freight railway and railway yards; provision of logistics agency services; trading business; and supply chain management services. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Cangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canggang Railway Ltd reported revenue of HK$278M in FY2025 versus HK$356M in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$57.9M in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.
2169 screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $293.73 | $141.29 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $50.08 | $12.62 | -75% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.69 | $34.23 | -63% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$176.01 | C$92.68 | -47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $335.41 | $114.55 | -66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $295.54 | $144.80 | -51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥5.04 | ¥5.65 | +12% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.30 | HK$17.85 | -45% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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