Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd stock HK$1.68, price HK$0.56, upside +200.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4625 – HK$0.8990 · fair‑value band HK$1.26 – HK$2.10 · the HK$0.5600 price screens below the HK$1.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
Follow Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated municipal water service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company operates in two segments, Tap Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment.
Show moreShow less
It is involved in the water supply and wastewater treatment; construction; software development and sale; and pipeline installation activities.
The company owns and operates twelve tap water plants with a daily supply capacity of approximately 774,000 tons; eight urban wastewater treatment plants with a daily treatment capacity of approximately 533,000 tons; two industrial park wastewater treatment plants; four entrusted wastewater treatment plants; and 292 township and rural sewage treatment plants with a daily treatment capacity of 665,100 tons.
It serves urban and rural residents, industrial and commercial users, local governments, and other institutions. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Luzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Luzhou Xinglu Water (Group) Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Luzhou City Xinglu Assets Management Co Ltd.
Stock analysis
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) currently trades at HK$0.5600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.68, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$3.00 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.5600 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4400, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.26 (bear) to HK$2.10 (bull), the price of HK$0.5600 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 109M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$481M (≈ $61.4M) Micro · P/E ratio 4.1 · P/S ratio 0.36 · Dividend yield 7.1% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 23.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 200%, 2281 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$1.26Fair Value HK$1.68BullHK$2.10
Price HK$0.5600 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.3% vs −1.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 12%
Compare Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)8.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)23.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2281
Frequently asked questions
Is Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.68 versus a price of HK$0.5600, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2281?
Our model-based fair value for Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is HK$1.68 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5600.
What is the quality score of 2281?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.68 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.26, optimistic scenario HK$2.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.68, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$0.5600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.26, optimistic scenario HK$2.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.14% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd it is HK$1.68 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5600. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 2281 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5600, fair value HK$1.68, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2281?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.68). For Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd the two are HK$1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd at about HK$481M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5600; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2281?
Our models span a range for Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.26, base HK$1.68, optimistic HK$2.10 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price HK$0.5600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2281?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 3.6%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2281 from its 52-week high?
Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd trades at HK$0.5600, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$0.8300 and at the low of HK$0.5600 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price HK$0.5600, calculated fair value HK$1.68 (+200%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2281 calculated?
We run Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was HK$0.5600. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.68, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) come from?
Earnings per share at Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd grew +2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The market capitalisation of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is HK$481M (≈ $61.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The dividend yield of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 7.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The net margin of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
The operating margin of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Revenue at Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is growing −6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281)?
Earnings per share at Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd are growing −2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) generate?
The free cash flow of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 287M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd (2281) carry?
The net debt of Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd is 1.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Luzhou Xinglu Water Group Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 30, 2026