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Tuya Inc. (2391) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$9.9B

TI Tuya Inc. 2391 · HK
PriceHK$13.97
Fair ValueHK$16.83
Upside+20.5%
Quality68/100
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Strengths

✓Trades 17% below our fair value of HK$16.83
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 19.1% net margin
✓generates free cash flow

Risks

!Narrow moat 43/100
!Weak on past: 25 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 16 out of 100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.3 %/yr)
Solidly profitable · 19.1% net margin
generates free cash flow
0.72% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range HK$15.84 – HK$17.83 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 25, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 25, 2026, revised from HK$2.15 to HK$16.83 (+682.8%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −0.2% over the past month.

A solid business, trading 17% below our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$15.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • The models converge in a tight band (HK$15.84 to HK$17.83), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$30.94 HK$5.73 Fair Value HK$16.83 Jul 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

50‑month range HK$5.73 – HK$30.94 · fair‑value band HK$15.84 – HK$17.83 · the HK$13.97 price screens below the HK$16.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Tuya Inc. (2391) currently trades at HK$13.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$16.83, implying the stock looks roughly 20.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tuya Inc. generated revenue of HK$328M at a net margin of 19.1%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 20.6 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$15.84 (bear case) to HK$17.83 (bull case); at HK$13.97, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 20%, 2391 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$1.45 HK$1.47 HK$1.44 76
Growth DCF HK$3.34 HK$4.63 HK$6.77 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.78 HK$2.55 HK$3.31 68
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.37 HK$4.83 HK$7.38 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.95 HK$4.06 HK$5.98 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.33 HK$2.59 HK$2.90 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.46 HK$2.87 HK$3.35 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.61 HK$5.29 HK$7.27 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.67 HK$3.04 HK$3.55 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.76 HK$3.24 HK$3.92 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.51 HK$5.01 HK$7.22 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7300 HK$3.69 HK$5.10 54
Lynch FV HK$1.00 HK$1.43 HK$1.86 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.00 HK$1.43 HK$1.86 46
EPV HK$1.79 HK$1.82 HK$1.84 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.24 HK$2.99 HK$3.73 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.36 HK$1.81 HK$2.27 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.36 HK$1.81 HK$2.27 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.02 HK$2.15 HK$2.27 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.05 HK$2.19 HK$2.33 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.83 HK$1.92 HK$2.00 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9400 HK$1.26 HK$1.88 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.34 HK$4.63 HK$6.77 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.33 HK$2.61 HK$2.99 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.45 HK$1.47 HK$1.44 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.79 HK$1.82 HK$1.84 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.78 HK$2.55 HK$3.31 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.24) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.6 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 30.1 TTM
Dividend yield 0.7% payout 12.6%
Net margin 19.1% TTM
Return on equity 6.3% TTM
Return on assets 1.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 9.2% TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$0.7956
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$328M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.3% 3y avg +15.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +41.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$73.9M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 34
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tuya Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI) cloud platform services in the People's Republic of China. Its AI cloud developer platform delivers a suite of offerings, including platform-as-a-service (PaaS), software-as-a-service (SaaS), and smart solutions to developers of smart device, commercial applications, and industries.

Full company description

Tuya Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI) cloud platform services in the People's Republic of China. Its AI cloud developer platform delivers a suite of offerings, including platform-as-a-service (PaaS), software-as-a-service (SaaS), and smart solutions to developers of smart device, commercial applications, and industries. The company's PaaS offering enables original equipment manufacturers and brands, and developers to develop, launch, manage, and monetize software-enabled smart devices and services. Its SaaS offering enables businesses to deploy, connect, and manage smart devices in various vertical scenarios for spatial intelligence and cloud-based software value-added services to build their own autonomous and controllable smart business platforms. Its solutions include cube private cloud, smart hospitality, smart residential, commercial lighting, and smart house and real estate. The company also offers a range of other cloud-based value-added services to enhance their ability to develop and manage IoT experiences for businesses, developers, and end users. In addition, it provides smart solutions for smart devices integrated with AI and intelligent software capabilities. The company serves brands, original equipment manufacturers, industry operators, and system integrators across a range of industry verticals, such as smart home and business, renewable energy, education, agriculture, outdoors and sport, and entertainment. Tuya Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tuya Inc. reported revenue of HK$322M in FY2025 versus HK$302M in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$57.9M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$322M
Latest YoY
+7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.4%
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Revenue +1.6%/yr
FY21 HK$302M
FY22 HK$208M
FY23 HK$230M
FY24 HK$299M
FY25 HK$322M
Net income
FY21 −HK$175M
FY22 −HK$146M
FY23 −HK$60.3M
FY24 HK$5.0M
FY25 HK$57.9M

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Tuya Inc. · Fair Value
HK$16.83 +20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tuya Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2391

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +21% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.23× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.84× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 17.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 17.1× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE61 · sector 3
FUTURE42 · sector 48
PAST25 · sector 12
HEALTH0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND16 · sector 26

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 25, 2026).

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Adyen N.V ADYEN €1,059 €707.53 -33%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Tuya Inc. (2391) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$16.83 versus a price of HK$13.97, about +20% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2391?
Our model-based fair value for Tuya Inc. is HK$16.83 (as of Aug 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.97.
What is the quality score of 2391?
Tuya Inc. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tuya Inc. (2391)?
Tuya Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$328M (latest available figure, as of Aug 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2391?
The net profit margin of Tuya Inc. is about 19.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 19.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tuya Inc. pay a dividend?
Tuya Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 25, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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