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Tuya Inc. (2391) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Tuya Inc. HK$19.99, price HK$13.07, upside +53.0%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Technology · HK · Based in China

Broad data Oct 2, 2026

Tuya Inc.

2391 · HK

Strongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.

Fair value HK$19.99 · Strongly undervalued (+53.0%)

Quality 75/100

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.3 %/yr in USD)

Highly profitable · 20.2% net margin (TTM)

Generates free cash flow

Ranks above peers (10/13)

Broad data

0.5% dividend yield · Payout strained

Moderate moat 45/100

26 models, one by oneBear HK$15.86 to bull HK$25.99 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 75/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

Watch Tuya Inc. for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

51‑month range HK$5.73 – HK$30.94 · fair‑value band HK$15.86 – HK$25.99 · the HK$13.07 price screens below the HK$19.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Tuya Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI) cloud platform services in the People's Republic of China. Its AI cloud developer platform delivers a suite of offerings, including platform-as-a-service (PaaS), software-as-a-service (SaaS), and smart solutions to developers of smart device, commercial applications, and industries. The company's PaaS offering enables original equipment manufacturers and brands, and developers to develop, launch, manage, and monetize software-enabled smart devices and services. Its SaaS offering enables businesses to deploy, connect, and manage smart devices in various vertical scenarios for spatial intelligence and cloud-based software value-added services to build their own autonomous and controllable smart business platforms. Its solutions include cube private cloud, smart hospitality, smart residential, commercial lighting, and smart house and real estate. The company also offers a range of other cloud-based value-added services to enhance their ability to develop and manage IoT experiences for businesses, developers, and end users. In addition, it provides smart solutions for smart devices integrated with AI and intelligent software capabilities. The company serves brands, original equipment manufacturers, industry operators, and system integrators across a range of industry verticals, such as smart home and business, renewable energy, education, agriculture, outdoors and sport, and entertainment. Tuya Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Tuya Inc. (2391) currently trades at HK$13.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.99, implying the stock looks roughly 34.6% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$24.41 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$13.07 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$9.90, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: HK$15.86 (bear) to HK$25.99 (bull), the price of HK$13.07 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Tuya Inc. reported revenue of $322M in FY2025 versus $302M in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $57.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$8.0B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 15.1 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.8716 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 18.0% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 53%, 2391 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$15.86 Fair Value HK$19.99 Bull HK$25.99

Price HK$13.07 · Upside +53.0%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.6263 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$24.59 HK$33.23 HK$46.99 79

Growth DCF HK$24.33 HK$31.73 HK$42.69 77

Residual Income HK$10.85 HK$10.85 HK$11.43 76

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$24.59 HK$33.23 HK$46.99 79

Owner Earnings HK$21.74 HK$28.28 HK$38.69 75

5Y Revenue Exit HK$18.07 HK$20.00 HK$22.26 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.03 HK$22.02 HK$25.57 74

5Y P/E Exit HK$27.42 HK$39.79 HK$54.28 68

10Y Revenue Exit HK$20.38 HK$23.03 HK$26.56 66

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.01 HK$24.41 HK$29.16 67

10Y P/E Exit HK$26.16 HK$36.49 HK$51.69 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$5.69 HK$28.96 HK$40.01 64

Lynch FV HK$7.88 HK$11.25 HK$14.63 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$7.88 HK$11.25 HK$14.63 57

EPV HK$13.92 HK$14.06 HK$14.18 68

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$17.57 HK$23.43 HK$29.28 63

P/S Multiple HK$10.67 HK$14.22 HK$17.78 58

P/B Multiple HK$10.67 HK$14.22 HK$17.78 55

EV/EBIT HK$15.86 HK$16.86 HK$17.85 63

EV/EBITDA HK$16.12 HK$17.21 HK$18.29 64

EV/Revenue HK$14.38 HK$15.03 HK$15.68 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$7.39 HK$9.90 HK$14.78 51

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$24.33 HK$31.73 HK$42.69 77

Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.07 HK$20.14 HK$22.91 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$10.85 HK$10.85 HK$11.43 76

ROIC Compounder HK$13.92 HK$14.06 HK$14.18 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$14.00 HK$19.99 HK$25.99 67

P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 37

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 71

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 83

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 100

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 92

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 59

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 14

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 1

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 68

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 91/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+7.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+15.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+12.3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+20.4%

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

−38.8% (2020) → 3.6% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year

not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

less than -40 %

The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+10.3%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.6%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+11.6%

Projected 2028 (sales)+10.4%

Projected 2029 (sales)+9.2%

Projected 2030 (sales)+8.0%

Watch 2391, get fair value alerts →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 351 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +52.9% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 6.7% · Above median

Return on assets 1.6% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 20.2% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 10.0% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 16.0% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.1× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.00× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 3.00× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 13.8× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 25

FUTURE (revenue growth)80 · sector 56

PAST (return on equity)27 · sector 21

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98

DIVIDEND (yield)9 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT	$525.18	$577.70	+10%	vs 2391
Block, Inc XYZ	$76.07	$76.95	+1%	vs 2391
Fortinet, Inc FTNT	$180.95	$164.68	−9%	vs 2391
Oracle Corporation ORCL	$142.48	$112.26	−21%	vs 2391
NetApp, Inc NTAP	$204.41	$157.26	−23%	vs 2391
Okta, Inc OKTA	$211.49	$142.12	−33%	vs 2391
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV	$87.39	$58.32	−33%	vs 2391
Synopsys, Inc SNPS	$505.17	$249.20	−51%	vs 2391
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR	$189.40	$42.16	−78%	vs 2391
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD	$272.67	$37.31	−86%	vs 2391

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Tuya Inc. · Fair Value
HK$19.99 +35%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2391" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Tuya Inc. · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$19.99</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+35%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tuya Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2391

Frequently asked questions

Is Tuya Inc. (2391) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$19.99 versus a price of HK$13.07, about +53% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 2391?

Our model-based fair value for Tuya Inc. is HK$19.99 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.07.

What is the quality score of 2391?

Tuya Inc. has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$19.99 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$15.86, optimistic scenario HK$25.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Tuya Inc. stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$19.99, about +53% upside versus a price of HK$13.07 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$15.86, optimistic scenario HK$25.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Tuya Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $341M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).

Does Tuya Inc. pay a dividend?

Tuya Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).

What growth is priced into Tuya Inc. (2391)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tuya Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2391 use?

Our models discount Tuya Inc. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tuya Inc. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Tuya Inc. (2391) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Tuya Inc. grew +12.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Tuya Inc. (2391) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tuya Inc. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.24 %: that much free cash flow Tuya Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tuya Inc. it is HK$19.99 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$13.07. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Tuya Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 2, 2026, 2391 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$13.07, fair value HK$19.99, a gap of about +53% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 2391?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$13.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$19.99). For Tuya Inc. the two are HK$6.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Tuya Inc. worth?

The market values Tuya Inc. at about HK$8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$13.07; our models calculate a fair value of HK$19.99 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2391?

Our models span a range for Tuya Inc.: cautious scenario HK$15.86, base HK$19.99, optimistic HK$25.99 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$13.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 2391?

Tuya Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$19.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 4.4.

How solid is the balance sheet of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Balance-sheet figures for Tuya Inc. (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 6.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 2391 from its 52-week high?

Tuya Inc. trades at HK$13.07, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$19.91 and 1% above the low of HK$13.00 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$19.99 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Tuya Inc.?

From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Tuya Inc. stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$13.07, calculated fair value HK$19.99 (+53%), Quality Score 75/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 2391 calculated?

We run Tuya Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$19.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tuya Inc. currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was HK$13.07. Our model-based fair value is HK$19.99, about +53% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Tuya Inc. right now?

The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$15.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Key figures of Tuya Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The market capitalisation of Tuya Inc. is HK$8.0B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Tuya Inc. is 2.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Earnings per share at Tuya Inc. are HK$0.8716 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The dividend yield of Tuya Inc. is 0.5% (payout 7.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The net margin of Tuya Inc. is 18.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Tuya Inc. is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tuya Inc. is −8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Tuya Inc. (2391)?

The operating margin of Tuya Inc. is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Revenue at Tuya Inc. is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Tuya Inc. (2391)?

Earnings per share at Tuya Inc. are growing +50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

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