Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial stock HK$0.39, price HK$1.13, upside -65.4%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range HK$0.8440 – HK$6.41 · fair‑value band HK$0.2550 – HK$0.4845 · the HK$1.13 price screens above the HK$0.3910 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Corporation Limited operates as a fruit retailer in China, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company sells fruits and fresh products through retail stores and online channels.
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It is involved in the provision of supply chain management and financing, brand management, agricultural technology, centralized purchasing, and enterprise management services; sales of fertilizers; development of information technology and information technology applications; and the planting and sale of fruits.
The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411) currently trades at HK$1.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3910, 65.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2550 (bear) to HK$0.4845 (bull), the price of HK$1.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial reported revenue of 8.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was −317M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.1B (≈ $274M) Micro · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 0.24 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −65%, 2411 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.2550Fair Value HK$0.3910BullHK$0.4845
Price HK$1.13 · Upside -65.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)HK$0.3000HK$0.4600HK$0.570055
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$0.3000HK$0.4600HK$0.570055
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.7% (2020) → −3.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 75 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−65.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets−4.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.9× · Pricier than median
P/B0.68× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.21× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3910 versus a price of HK$1.13, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2411?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is HK$0.3910 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.13.
What is the quality score of 2411?
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3910 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2550, optimistic scenario HK$0.4845. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3910, about −65% upside versus a price of HK$1.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2550, optimistic scenario HK$0.4845. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial currently shows a dividend yield of 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial it is HK$0.3910 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of HK$1.13. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 2411 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.13, fair value HK$0.3910, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2411?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3910). For Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial the two are HK$0.7390 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial worth?
The market values Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial at about HK$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.13; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3910 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2411?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial: cautious scenario HK$0.2550, base HK$0.3910, optimistic HK$0.4845 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price HK$1.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2411?
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3910 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 1.7%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2411 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial trades at HK$1.13, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$2.09 and at the low of HK$1.13 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3910 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price HK$1.13, calculated fair value HK$0.3910 (−65%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2411 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3910, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was HK$1.13. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3910, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.4845). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.2550 to HK$0.4845) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is HK$2.1B (≈ $274M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is growing +14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial are growing −64.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is −200M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (2411) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial is 198M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 30, 2026