Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group HK$94.20, price HK$56.40, upside +67.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range HK$26.28 – HK$104.80 · fair‑value band HK$60.08 – HK$156.28 · the HK$56.40 price screens below the HK$94.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Dekon Food and Agriculture Group engages in the livestock and poultry breeding and farming businesses. The company operates through three segments: Pig, Poultry, and Ancillary Products. It provides market hogs, breeding pigs, market piglets, and boar semen; yellow-feathered broilers and chicks; and feed ingredients, fresh meat, and other ancillary products.
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Dekon Food and Agriculture Group engages in the livestock and poultry breeding and farming businesses. The company operates through three segments: Pig, Poultry, and Ancillary Products. It provides market hogs, breeding pigs, market piglets, and boar semen; yellow-feathered broilers and chicks; and feed ingredients, fresh meat, and other ancillary products. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419) currently trades at HK$56.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$94.20, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$127.73 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$56.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$13.26, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$60.08 (bear) to HK$156.28 (bull), the price of HK$56.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group reported revenue of 22.6B CNY in FY2026 versus 9.9B CNY in FY2022, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B CNY in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$21.9B (≈ $2.8B) · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 0.68 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 67%, 2419 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$60.08Fair Value HK$94.20Bull HK$156.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+45.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.7% a year for the price and +42.7% for the forecasts.
Compare Dekon Food & Agriculture Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+67% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dekon Food & Agriculture Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2419
Frequently asked questions
Is Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$94.20 versus a price of HK$56.40, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2419?
Our model-based fair value for Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is HK$94.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$56.40.
What is the quality score of 2419?
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$94.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$60.08, optimistic scenario HK$156.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dekon Food & Agriculture Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$94.20, about +67% upside versus a price of HK$56.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$60.08, optimistic scenario HK$156.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 23.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Dekon Food & Agriculture Group pay a dividend?
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dekon Food & Agriculture Group would have to grow free cash flow by +11.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2419 use?
Our models discount Dekon Food & Agriculture Group at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.44, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dekon Food & Agriculture Group that is +11.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dekon Food & Agriculture Group grew +22.6 % a year. The price currently implies +11.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (+11.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.19 %: that much free cash flow Dekon Food & Agriculture Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dekon Food & Agriculture Group it is HK$94.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$56.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dekon Food & Agriculture Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2419 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$56.40, fair value HK$94.20, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2419?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$56.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$94.20). For Dekon Food & Agriculture Group the two are HK$37.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dekon Food & Agriculture Group worth?
The market values Dekon Food & Agriculture Group at about HK$21.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$56.40; our models calculate a fair value of HK$94.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2419?
Our models span a range for Dekon Food & Agriculture Group: cautious scenario HK$60.08, base HK$94.20, optimistic HK$156.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$56.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2419?
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$94.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2419 from its 52-week high?
Dekon Food & Agriculture Group trades at HK$56.40, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$85.00 and 43% above the low of HK$39.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$94.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dekon Food & Agriculture Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dekon Food & Agriculture Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$56.40, calculated fair value HK$94.20 (+67%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2419 calculated?
We run Dekon Food & Agriculture Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$94.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Dekon Food & Agriculture Group currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$56.40. Our model-based fair value is HK$94.20, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dekon Food & Agriculture Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$60.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$60.08 to HK$156.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The market capitalisation of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is HK$21.9B (≈ $2.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The dividend yield of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 1.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The net margin of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 6.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
The operating margin of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
Revenue at Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is growing −12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419)?
Earnings per share at Dekon Food & Agriculture Group are growing −89.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419) carry?
The net debt of Dekon Food & Agriculture Group is 1.2B CNY (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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