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Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (2419) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$18.0B

DF Dekon Food and Agriculture Group 2419 · HK
PriceHK$53.75
Fair ValueHK$74.79
Upside+39.1%
Quality48/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range HK$55.28 – HK$96.55 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 36 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from HK$73.70 to HK$74.79 (+1.5%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +8.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 39% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$55.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

HK$104.80 HK$26.28 Fair Value HK$74.79 Dec 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

32‑month range HK$26.28 – HK$104.80 · fair‑value band HK$55.28 – HK$96.55 · the HK$53.75 price screens below the HK$74.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (2419) currently trades at HK$53.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$74.79, implying the stock looks roughly 39.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Dekon Food and Agriculture Group generated revenue of HK$23.2B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 12.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at HK$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$55.28 (bear case) to HK$96.55 (bull case); at HK$53.75, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at 39%, 2419 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$44.81 HK$78.92 HK$147.86 80
Residual Income HK$23.87 HK$31.89 HK$101.59 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$42.97 HK$83.20 HK$147.96 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$47.32 HK$71.50 HK$148.50 38
Owner Earnings HK$45.38 HK$96.68 HK$204.38 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$42.97 HK$73.41 HK$135.65 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$67.17 HK$123.48 HK$231.55 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$56.32 HK$120.07 HK$205.86 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$42.94 HK$88.91 HK$126.59 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$61.86 HK$138.87 HK$285.66 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$54.04 HK$116.47 HK$227.42 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$24.42 HK$170.31 HK$239.01 54
Lynch FV HK$58.78 HK$83.97 HK$109.16 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$58.78 HK$83.97 HK$109.16 46
EPV HK$36.62 HK$41.86 HK$46.45 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.05 HK$16.74 HK$26.56 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.05 HK$14.12 HK$17.57 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$53.87 HK$71.83 HK$89.78 63
P/S Multiple HK$45.79 HK$61.05 HK$76.32 58
P/B Multiple HK$45.79 HK$61.05 HK$76.32 55
EV/EBIT HK$54.71 HK$71.22 HK$87.74 53
EV/EBITDA HK$73.73 HK$96.59 HK$119.44 54
EV/Revenue HK$38.56 HK$52.87 HK$67.19 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$11.39 HK$15.27 HK$22.79 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$44.81 HK$78.92 HK$147.86 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$42.97 HK$83.20 HK$147.96 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$23.87 HK$31.89 HK$101.59 76
ROIC Compounder HK$45.68 HK$67.17 HK$84.31 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$75.36 HK$107.66 HK$139.96 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$107.66) versus Dividend Discount (HK$14.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$23.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.2%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 16.8%
Free cash flow HK$974M FY2026
P/E ratio 11.0
More key figures
Operating margin 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -89.9%
Net debt HK$1.2B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 24
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Dekon Food and Agriculture Group engages in the livestock and poultry breeding and farming businesses. The company operates through three segments: Pig, Poultry, and Ancillary Products. It provides market hogs, breeding pigs, market piglets, and boar semen; yellow-feathered broilers and chicks; and feed ingredients, fresh meat, and other ancillary products.

Full company description

Dekon Food and Agriculture Group engages in the livestock and poultry breeding and farming businesses. The company operates through three segments: Pig, Poultry, and Ancillary Products. It provides market hogs, breeding pigs, market piglets, and boar semen; yellow-feathered broilers and chicks; and feed ingredients, fresh meat, and other ancillary products. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Chengdu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Dekon Food and Agriculture Group reported revenue of HK$22.6B in FY2026 versus HK$9.9B in FY2022, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.4B in FY2026.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$22.6B
Latest YoY
+0.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.6%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.0%
Revenue +22.9%/yr
FY22 HK$9.9B
FY23 HK$15.0B
FY24 HK$16.1B
FY25 HK$22.5B
FY26 HK$22.6B
Net income
FY22 −HK$3.6B
FY23 HK$993M
FY24 −HK$1.8B
FY25 HK$4.1B
FY26 HK$1.4B

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Dekon Food and Agriculture Group · Fair Value
HK$74.79 +39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dekon Food and Agriculture Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2419

Peer Group

Farm Products · 288 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside +39% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.29× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.04× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.78× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 85 · sector 25
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 67 · sector 17
HEALTH 85 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.90 ¥48.19 +18%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.51 ¥12.08 -17%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 188.40 kr 262.59 +39%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,120 IDR 7,076 IDR +127%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.00 THB 55.71 THB +153%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,540 IDR 3,105 IDR +102%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,300 IDR 7,463 IDR +2%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,070 IDR 7,231 IDR +249%
Thaifoods Group TFGR 10.60 THB 23.53 THB +122%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,845 IDR 610.80 IDR -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (2419) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$74.79 versus a price of HK$53.75, about +39% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2419?
Our model-based fair value for Dekon Food and Agriculture Group is HK$74.79 (as of Jul 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$53.75.
What is the quality score of 2419?
Dekon Food and Agriculture Group has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (2419)?
Dekon Food and Agriculture Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$23.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2419?
The net profit margin of Dekon Food and Agriculture Group is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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