AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of AustAsia Group Ltd. HK$4.21, price HK$1.73, upside +143.9%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range HK$0.9100 – HK$6.37 · fair‑value band HK$3.09 – HK$5.96 · the HK$1.73 price screens below the HK$4.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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AustAsia Group Ltd. produces and sells raw milk, beef cattle, and feed products in Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Raw Milk, Beef Cattle, and Ancillary. The company engages in dairy cow breeding and farming; beef cattle breeding and farming; sells beef cattle; and production and sales of feed.
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AustAsia Group Ltd. produces and sells raw milk, beef cattle, and feed products in Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Raw Milk, Beef Cattle, and Ancillary. The company engages in dairy cow breeding and farming; beef cattle breeding and farming; sells beef cattle; and production and sales of feed. In addition, it trades, wholesales, and distributes milk products under the AustAsia brand name. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425) currently trades at HK$1.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.21, implying the stock looks roughly 59.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$4.45 per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$1.73 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.28, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.09 (bear) to HK$5.96 (bull), the price of HK$1.73 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AustAsia Group Ltd. reported revenue of 3.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −751M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.7B (≈ $216M) · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.5400 · Net margin −21.6% · Return on equity −21.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin 11.7% · Revenue (TTM) 3.5B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 144%, 2425 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.09Fair Value HK$4.21Bull HK$5.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
28.1% (2020) → −12.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+144% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−22% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AustAsia Group Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2425
Frequently asked questions
Is AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.21 versus a price of HK$1.73, about +144% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2425?
Our model-based fair value for AustAsia Group Ltd. is HK$4.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.73.
What is the quality score of 2425?
AustAsia Group Ltd. has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.09, optimistic scenario HK$5.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AustAsia Group Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.21, about +144% upside versus a price of HK$1.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.09, optimistic scenario HK$5.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
AustAsia Group Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AustAsia Group Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2425 use?
Our models discount AustAsia Group Ltd. at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AustAsia Group Ltd. that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AustAsia Group Ltd. grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AustAsia Group Ltd. (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.38 %: that much free cash flow AustAsia Group Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AustAsia Group Ltd. it is HK$4.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.73. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AustAsia Group Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2425 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.73, fair value HK$4.21, a gap of about +144% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2425?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.21). For AustAsia Group Ltd. the two are HK$2.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AustAsia Group Ltd. worth?
The market values AustAsia Group Ltd. at about HK$1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.73; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2425?
Our models span a range for AustAsia Group Ltd.: cautious scenario HK$3.09, base HK$4.21, optimistic HK$5.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
Balance-sheet figures for AustAsia Group Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −21.0%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2425 from its 52-week high?
AustAsia Group Ltd. trades at HK$1.73, about 35% below its 52-week high of HK$2.66 and 5% above the low of HK$1.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AustAsia Group Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AustAsia Group Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.73, calculated fair value HK$4.21 (+144%), Quality Score 30/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2425 calculated?
We run AustAsia Group Ltd. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. AustAsia Group Ltd. currently trades 144 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$1.73. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.21, about +144% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AustAsia Group Ltd. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$3.09 to HK$5.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AustAsia Group Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The market capitalisation of AustAsia Group Ltd. is HK$1.7B (≈ $216M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AustAsia Group Ltd. is 0.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
Earnings per share at AustAsia Group Ltd. are HK$−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The net margin of AustAsia Group Ltd. is −21.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AustAsia Group Ltd. is −21.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AustAsia Group Ltd. is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
The operating margin of AustAsia Group Ltd. is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
Revenue at AustAsia Group Ltd. is growing −4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425)?
Earnings per share at AustAsia Group Ltd. are growing −62.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AustAsia Group Ltd. (2425) carry?
The net debt of AustAsia Group Ltd. is 2.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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