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LOPAL TECH (2465) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of LOPAL TECH HK$6.08, price HK$8.71, upside -30.2%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · HK

LT Some data Sep 24, 2026

LOPAL TECH

2465 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value HK$6.08 · Overvalued (−30%)
!Quality 33/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +36.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.6% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$22.96 HK$3.84 Fair Value HK$6.08 Oct 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

23‑month range HK$3.84 – HK$22.96 · fair‑value band HK$5.76 – HK$6.36 · the HK$8.71 price screens above the HK$6.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and environmental protection fine chemicals for vehicles in China and internationally.

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Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and environmental protection fine chemicals for vehicles in China and internationally. The company provides automotive lubricants, grease, coolants, brake fluids, chemicals, industrial lubricating grease, automotive maintenance products, lithium battery materials, hydrogen energy, and plastic new materials. It provides its products under the Longpan brand name. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group Co., Ltd. in August 2025. Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is based in Nanjing, China.

Stock analysis

LOPAL TECH (2465) currently trades at HK$8.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.08, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$4.05 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$8.71 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.39, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$5.76 (bear) to HK$6.36 (bull), the price of HK$8.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

LOPAL TECH reported revenue of 8.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was −171M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$9.6B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 151.5 · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.3242 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin −1.9% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −30%, 2465 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$5.76 Fair Value HK$6.08 Bull HK$6.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder HK$2.28 HK$2.39 HK$2.48 72
EPV HK$2.28 HK$2.39 HK$2.48 71
Gordon GGM HK$2.46 HK$4.43 HK$6.10 68
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$2.28 HK$2.39 HK$2.48 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.46 HK$4.43 HK$6.10 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.46 HK$4.05 HK$4.74 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$2.43 HK$2.76 HK$3.08 66
EV/EBITDA HK$7.04 HK$8.90 HK$10.77 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.64 HK$3.15 HK$3.66 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.06 HK$2.77 HK$4.13 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$2.28 HK$2.39 HK$2.48 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 30
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.5% (2020) → 1.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2465 screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 120% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.99× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 151.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 3.39× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)51 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)45 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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HF Sinclair Corporation DINO $106.69 $52.19 −51%
SK Innovation Co 096770 149,200 KRW 50,008 KRW −66%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹315.75 ₹846.81 +168%

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LOPAL TECH · Fair Value
HK$6.08 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LOPAL TECH Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2465

Frequently asked questions

Is LOPAL TECH (2465) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.08 versus a price of HK$8.71, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2465?
Our model-based fair value for LOPAL TECH is HK$6.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.71.
What is the quality score of 2465?
LOPAL TECH has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LOPAL TECH (2465)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$6.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.76, optimistic scenario HK$6.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LOPAL TECH stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$6.08, about −30% upside versus a price of HK$8.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.76, optimistic scenario HK$6.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
LOPAL TECH reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does LOPAL TECH pay a dividend?
LOPAL TECH currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LOPAL TECH it is HK$6.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$8.71. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LOPAL TECH stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2465 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$8.71, fair value HK$6.08, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2465?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$6.08). For LOPAL TECH the two are HK$2.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LOPAL TECH worth?
The market values LOPAL TECH at about HK$9.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.71; our models calculate a fair value of HK$6.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2465?
Our models span a range for LOPAL TECH: cautious scenario HK$5.76, base HK$6.08, optimistic HK$6.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$8.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2465?
LOPAL TECH trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 151.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$6.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
Balance-sheet figures for LOPAL TECH (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2465 from its 52-week high?
LOPAL TECH trades at HK$8.71, about 62% below its 52-week high of HK$22.96 and at the low of HK$8.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$6.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LOPAL TECH?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LOPAL TECH stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$8.71, calculated fair value HK$6.08 (−30%), Quality Score 33/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2465 calculated?
We run LOPAL TECH through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$6.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. LOPAL TECH itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$8.71. Our model-based fair value is HK$6.08, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LOPAL TECH right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (HK$5.76 to HK$6.36), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of LOPAL TECH

How large is the market capitalisation of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The market capitalisation of LOPAL TECH is HK$9.6B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LOPAL TECH is 0.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
Earnings per share at LOPAL TECH are HK$−0.3242 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 151.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The dividend yield of LOPAL TECH is 2.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The net margin of LOPAL TECH is −1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LOPAL TECH is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LOPAL TECH is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LOPAL TECH (2465)?
The operating margin of LOPAL TECH is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LOPAL TECH (2465)?
Revenue at LOPAL TECH is growing +120% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does LOPAL TECH (2465) generate?
The free cash flow of LOPAL TECH is −HK$572M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LOPAL TECH (2465) carry?
The net debt of LOPAL TECH is HK$3.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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