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GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd HK$2.31, price HK$3.05, upside -24.4%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · HK

GC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd

2531 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value HK$2.31 · Overvalued (−24.4%)

!Quality 35/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +20.1 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 2.9% net margin (TTM)

✓generates free cash flow

!Trails peers (2/12)

!Narrow moat 18/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on valuation: 1 out of 100

!Weak on future: 28 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear HK$1.86 to bull HK$2.99 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 35/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

27‑month range HK$2.72 – HK$49.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.86 – HK$2.99 · the HK$3.05 price screens above the HK$2.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited provides automotive related products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers in-vehicle hardware products, including in-vehicle infotainment systems and in-vehicle safety systems to 4S Stores. It is also involved in software-as-a-service (SaaS) marketing and management services comprising of SaaS subscription services that provides software systems to 4S stores; as well as SaaS value added services that integrates online and offline retails services to car users. It serves automotive financing and leasing companies; and in-vehicle device original brand manufacturers. GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) currently trades at HK$3.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.31, 24.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.78 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$3.05 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.31, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.86 (bear) to HK$2.99 (bull), the price of HK$3.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd reported revenue of 717M CNY in FY2025 versus 327M CNY in FY2021, a compound +21.7%/yr. Reported net income was 20.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $143M) · P/E ratio 43.0 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% · Operating margin −0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −24%, 2531 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.86 Fair Value HK$2.31 Bull HK$2.99

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0375 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$2.39 HK$2.85 HK$4.00 76

Growth DCF HK$2.34 HK$2.91 HK$3.84 74

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.14 HK$2.62 HK$3.47 71

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$2.39 HK$2.85 HK$4.00 76

Owner Earnings HK$2.72 HK$3.94 HK$6.06 70

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.87 HK$2.03 HK$2.31 68

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.14 HK$2.62 HK$3.47 71

5Y P/E Exit HK$2.46 HK$3.46 HK$4.74 66

10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.06 HK$2.34 HK$2.58 63

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.22 HK$2.78 HK$3.71 64

10Y P/E Exit HK$2.41 HK$3.28 HK$4.74 59

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.4500 HK$3.13 HK$4.40 60

Lynch FV HK$0.9300 HK$1.33 HK$1.73 58

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.9300 HK$1.33 HK$1.73 55

EPV HK$1.51 HK$1.51 HK$1.52 70

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$1.09 HK$1.45 HK$1.82 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.8400 HK$1.12 HK$1.40 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.8400 HK$1.12 HK$1.40 55

EV/EBIT HK$1.63 HK$1.69 HK$1.75 63

EV/EBITDA HK$2.03 HK$2.22 HK$2.41 64

EV/Revenue HK$1.58 HK$1.63 HK$1.67 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$1.08 HK$1.44 HK$2.15 51

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$2.34 HK$2.91 HK$3.84 74

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.87 HK$2.08 HK$2.38 68

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$1.40 HK$1.31 HK$1.28 68

ROIC Compounder HK$1.51 HK$1.51 HK$1.52 67

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.30 HK$1.86 HK$2.41 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8

Profitability 41

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 29

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 50

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 80

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 33

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 0

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 17

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 1

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 1

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 85/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

+2.4%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+20.1%

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−12.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 1%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations

The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+19.4%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.5% a year for the price.

2531 screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

Compare GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

First stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 680 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −24.4% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 3.3% · Below median

Return on assets 0.3% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 2.9% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) −0.8% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 5.6% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.0× · Priciest 25%

P/B 1.41× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 1.33× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 38.7× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 58.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)1 · sector 26

FUTURE (revenue growth)28 · sector 25

PAST (return on equity)13 · sector 28

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.31 −24%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2531" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$2.31</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−24%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2531

Frequently asked questions

Is GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.31 versus a price of HK$3.05, about −24% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 2531?

Our model-based fair value for GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is HK$2.31 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.05.

What is the quality score of 2531?

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.31 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.86, optimistic scenario HK$2.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$2.31, about −24% upside versus a price of HK$3.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.86, optimistic scenario HK$2.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 717M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).

What growth is priced into GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +21.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2531 use?

Our models discount GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) delivered so far?

Over the past 4 years revenue at GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd grew +21.7 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (+19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.58 %: that much free cash flow GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd it is HK$2.31 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.05. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 27, 2026, 2531 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.05, fair value HK$2.31, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 2531?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.31). For GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd the two are HK$0.7430 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd worth?

The market values GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.05; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.31 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2531?

Our models span a range for GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.86, base HK$2.31, optimistic HK$2.99 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 2531?

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 58.3.

How solid is the balance sheet of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

Balance-sheet figures for GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 2531 from its 52-week high?

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd trades at HK$3.05, about 80% below its 52-week high of HK$15.13 and 12% above the low of HK$2.72 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.31 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.05, calculated fair value HK$2.31 (−24%), Quality Score 35/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 2531 calculated?

We run GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.05. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.31, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The market capitalisation of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is HK$1.1B (≈ $143M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The price-to-sales ratio of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

Earnings per share at GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The net margin of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The return on equity (ROE) of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

The operating margin of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

Revenue at GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?

Earnings per share at GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd are growing −89.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net cash does GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) hold?

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd holds more cash than debt, 189M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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