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GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.1B

GC GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd 2531 · HK
PriceHK$4.47
Fair ValueHK$2.20
Upside-50.7%
Quality35/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.9% net margin
generates free cash flow
Trails peers (1/12)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.88 – HK$2.20 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +0.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 51% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

HK$49.05 HK$2.90 Fair Value HK$2.20 Jul 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

25‑month range HK$2.90 – HK$49.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.88 – HK$2.20 · the HK$4.47 price screens above the HK$2.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) currently trades at HK$4.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.20, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd generated revenue of HK$717M at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$189M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.88 (bear case) to HK$2.20 (bull case); at HK$4.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -51%, 2531 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.07 HK$2.68 HK$3.72 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.11 HK$1.59 HK$2.07 68
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.60 HK$1.78 HK$2.05 67
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.11 HK$2.59 HK$3.85 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.44 HK$3.71 HK$6.07 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.60 HK$1.74 HK$1.99 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.85 HK$2.28 HK$3.05 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.14 HK$3.05 HK$4.21 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.77 HK$2.02 HK$2.25 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.93 HK$2.45 HK$3.35 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.12 HK$2.95 HK$4.36 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3800 HK$2.68 HK$3.76 54
Lynch FV HK$0.8000 HK$1.14 HK$1.48 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.8000 HK$1.14 HK$1.48 46
EPV HK$1.29 HK$1.30 HK$1.30 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.9300 HK$1.24 HK$1.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.7200 HK$0.9600 HK$1.20 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.7200 HK$0.9600 HK$1.20 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.40 HK$1.45 HK$1.49 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.74 HK$1.90 HK$2.07 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.35 HK$1.39 HK$1.43 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9200 HK$1.23 HK$1.84 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.07 HK$2.68 HK$3.72 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.60 HK$1.78 HK$2.05 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.26 HK$1.19 HK$0.9300 61
ROIC Compounder HK$1.29 HK$1.30 HK$1.30 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.11 HK$1.59 HK$2.07 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.45) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$717M
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.6%
Net margin 2.9%
Return on equity 3.3%
Free cash flow HK$24.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 43.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin -0.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500
EPS growth (YoY) -89.6%
Net cash HK$189M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 1
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited provides automotive related products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers in-vehicle hardware products, including in-vehicle infotainment systems and in-vehicle safety systems to 4S Stores.

Full company description

GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited provides automotive related products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers in-vehicle hardware products, including in-vehicle infotainment systems and in-vehicle safety systems to 4S Stores. It is also involved in software-as-a-service (SaaS) marketing and management services comprising of SaaS subscription services that provides software systems to 4S stores; as well as SaaS value added services that integrates online and offline retails services to car users. It serves automotive financing and leasing companies; and in-vehicle device original brand manufacturers. GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd reported revenue of HK$717M in FY2025 versus HK$327M in FY2021, a compound +21.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$20.7M in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$717M
Latest YoY
+2.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.1%
Revenue +21.7%/yr
FY21 HK$327M
FY22 HK$414M
FY23 HK$561M
FY24 HK$700M
FY25 HK$717M
Net income −10.2%/yr
FY21 HK$31.8M
FY22 HK$44.1M
FY23 HK$51.1M
FY24 HK$44.4M
FY25 HK$20.7M

2531 screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

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GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.20 −51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2531

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 641 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −58% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.63× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.54× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 5.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 75.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 16
FUTURE 28 · sector 24
PAST 13 · sector 26
HEALTH 0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.20 versus a price of HK$4.47, about −51% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2531?
Our model-based fair value for GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is HK$2.20 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$4.47.
What is the quality score of 2531?
GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd (2531)?
GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$717M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2531?
The net profit margin of GL-Carlink Tech Hldg Ltd is about 2.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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