Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$433M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$3.15 to HK$3.03 (−3.8%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +20.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$3.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range HK$3.50 – HK$22.95 · fair‑value band HK$2.01 – HK$3.50 · the HK$5.52 price screens above the HK$3.03 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) currently trades at HK$5.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.03, implying the stock looks roughly 45.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. generated revenue of HK$583M at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue declined 29.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at HK$134M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$2.01 (bear case) to HK$3.50 (bull case); at HK$5.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -45%, 2573 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.61) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.14). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of food-grade and industrial-grade glycine; and sucralose. It offers sugar-free dietary sweeteners and dietary sugar substitutes; amino acids; and curcumin, and carrageenan natural extracts.
Full company description
Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of food-grade and industrial-grade glycine; and sucralose. It offers sugar-free dietary sweeteners and dietary sugar substitutes; amino acids; and curcumin, and carrageenan natural extracts. The company exports to Europe, the United States, North America, rest of Asia, Mainland China, South America, Africa, and Oceania. Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Ji'an, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. reported revenue of HK$583M in FY2025 versus HK$761M in FY2022, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$13.1M in FY2025, compounding −52.5%/yr from FY2022.
2573 screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 94,500 | CHF 9,669 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.78 | $27.36 | -56% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $184.23 | $91.25 | -50% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,136 | CHF 711.91 | -37% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 132,800 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +53% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | -56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹604.70 | ₹304.54 | -50% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | -12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 26,850 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +57% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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