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Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. HK$2.53, price HK$5.02, upside -49.6%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · HK

NG Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd.

2573 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$2.53 · Strongly overvalued (−49.6%)
!Quality 31/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −8.5 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -16.8% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 2.2%
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$22.95 HK$3.50 Fair Value HK$2.53 Jun 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

16‑month range HK$3.50 – HK$22.95 · fair‑value band HK$2.02 – HK$3.29 · the HK$5.02 price screens above the HK$2.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of food-grade and industrial-grade glycine; and sucralose. It offers sugar-free dietary sweeteners and dietary sugar substitutes; amino acids; and curcumin, and carrageenan natural extracts.

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Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of food-grade and industrial-grade glycine; and sucralose. It offers sugar-free dietary sweeteners and dietary sugar substitutes; amino acids; and curcumin, and carrageenan natural extracts. The company exports to Europe, the United States, North America, rest of Asia, Mainland China, South America, Africa, and Oceania. Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Ji'an, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) currently trades at HK$5.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.53, 49.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$5.39 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$5.02 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.98, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$2.02 (bear) to HK$3.29 (bull), the price of HK$5.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 583M CNY in FY2025 versus 761M CNY in FY2022, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 13.1M CNY in FY2025, compounding −52.5%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap HK$528M (≈ $67.3M) · P/E ratio 34.3 · P/S ratio 0.77 · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity −12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin −20.9% · Revenue (TTM) 452M CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −50%, 2573 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$2.02 Fair Value HK$2.53 Bull HK$3.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$2.38 HK$2.56 HK$2.70 71
ROIC Compounder HK$2.38 HK$2.56 HK$2.70 69
Residual Income HK$5.13 HK$4.74 HK$4.48 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.08 HK$1.98 HK$2.45 64
EPV HK$2.38 HK$2.56 HK$2.70 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.50 HK$3.33 HK$4.17 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.02 HK$2.70 HK$3.37 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.02 HK$2.70 HK$3.37 55
EV/EBIT HK$4.24 HK$5.35 HK$6.47 66
EV/EBITDA HK$8.12 HK$10.52 HK$12.93 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.29 HK$4.31 HK$5.33 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.03 HK$5.39 HK$8.05 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.13 HK$4.74 HK$4.48 68
ROIC Compounder HK$2.38 HK$2.56 HK$2.70 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.77 HK$2.53 HK$3.29 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 10
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−46.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−46.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 4%

2573 screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Mondelez International, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 85 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −49.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −16.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −20.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −39.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.15× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ $60.25 $29.03 −52%
The Hershey Company HSY $161.41 $90.80 −44%
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISP CHF 8,580 CHF 11,708 +36%
Barry Callebaut AG BARN CHF 1,118 CHF 654.80 −41%
Cofco Sugar Holding 600737 ¥14.75 ¥10.01 −32%
ORION Corp 271560 106,900 KRW 203,315 KRW +90%
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB $39.00 $21.64 −45%
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 ¥18.76 ¥8.53 −55%
Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN ₹685.80 ₹161.22 −76%
ORION Holdings 001800 23,750 KRW 92,076 KRW +288%

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Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. · Fair Value
HK$2.53 −50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2573

Frequently asked questions

Is Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.53 versus a price of HK$5.02, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2573?
Our model-based fair value for Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is HK$2.53 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.02.
What is the quality score of 2573?
Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.53 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.02, optimistic scenario HK$3.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.53, about −50% upside versus a price of HK$5.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.02, optimistic scenario HK$3.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 452M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. it is HK$2.53 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$5.02. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2573 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$5.02, fair value HK$2.53, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2573?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.53). For Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. the two are HK$2.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. at about HK$528M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.02; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2573?
Our models span a range for Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario HK$2.02, base HK$2.53, optimistic HK$3.29 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$5.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2573?
Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
Balance-sheet figures for Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −12.0%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2573 from its 52-week high?
Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. trades at HK$5.02, about 56% below its 52-week high of HK$11.43 and 43% above the low of HK$3.50 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$5.02, calculated fair value HK$2.53 (−50%), Quality Score 31/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2573 calculated?
We run Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$5.02. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.53, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$3.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd.

How large is the market capitalisation of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
The market capitalisation of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is HK$528M (≈ $67.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
The net margin of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is −12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is 9.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
The operating margin of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is −20.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
Revenue at Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is growing −39.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573)?
Earnings per share at Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. are growing +577% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) generate?
The free cash flow of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is −100M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. (2573) carry?
The net debt of Newtrend Group Holding Co. Ltd. is 134M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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