Dmall Inc (2586) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Dmall Inc HK$4.97, price HK$8.55, upside -41.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Dmall Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range HK$3.91 – HK$13.80 · fair‑value band HK$3.49 – HK$6.05 · the HK$8.55 price screens above the HK$4.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Dmall in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Dmall is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Dmall Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail digitalization solutions in China, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia, Poland, Macau, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brunei, Australia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, AI Retail Core Solution and AI Retail Value-Added Service.
Show more
Dmall Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail digitalization solutions in China, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia, Poland, Macau, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brunei, Australia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, AI Retail Core Solution and AI Retail Value-Added Service. It offers Dmall OS system, a SaaS solution that provides customization, implementation, software development, and maintenance services to retailers; and AI retail value-added services, including intelligent loss prevention, picking, merchandising, cashier, distribution, and cleaning services, as well as self-service night receiving systems, remote duty, and offline marketing services and products. The company also engages in the provision of various solutions, such as in-store operations, POS checkout, data intelligence hub, and franchising services; omnichannel sales and member engagement; category planning, smart shelf display, and smart replenishment; supplier and sourcing management, smart procurement, and warehousing and transportation; smart security solutions, workforce improvement, and sustainable solutions; and AI merchandising, customer service solutions, and security solutions. In addition, it is involved in research and development. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Dmall Inc (2586) currently trades at HK$8.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.97, 41.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$6.81 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$8.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.8100, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$3.49 (bear) to HK$6.05 (bull), the price of HK$8.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dmall Inc reported revenue of 2.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 848M CNY in FY2021, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was 134M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$7.8B (≈ $997M) · P/E ratio 51.2 · P/S ratio 3.16 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1669 · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −27.0% · Operating margin 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 119% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −42%, 2586 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.49Fair Value HK$4.97Bull HK$6.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0601 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−205.2% (2020) → 6.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 365 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.9% · Above median
Return on assets5.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)51.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.00× · Pricier than median
P/FCF92.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA36.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 53
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dmall Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2586
Frequently asked questions
Is Dmall Inc (2586) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.97 versus a price of HK$8.55, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2586?
Our model-based fair value for Dmall Inc is HK$4.97 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.55.
What is the quality score of 2586?
Dmall Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dmall Inc (2586)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.97 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.49, optimistic scenario HK$6.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dmall Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.97, about −42% upside versus a price of HK$8.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.49, optimistic scenario HK$6.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dmall Inc (2586)?
Dmall Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dmall Inc (2586)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dmall Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +43.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2586 use?
Our models discount Dmall Inc at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dmall Inc that is +43.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dmall Inc (2586) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dmall Inc grew +36.4 % a year. The price currently implies +43.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dmall Inc (2586) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dmall Inc (+43.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.08 %: that much free cash flow Dmall Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dmall Inc (2586)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dmall Inc it is HK$4.97 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$8.55. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dmall Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2586 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$8.55, fair value HK$4.97, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2586?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.97). For Dmall Inc the two are HK$3.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dmall Inc worth?
The market values Dmall Inc at about HK$7.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.55; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2586?
Our models span a range for Dmall Inc: cautious scenario HK$3.49, base HK$4.97, optimistic HK$6.05 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$8.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2586?
Dmall Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.4, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 36.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dmall Inc (2586)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dmall Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2586 from its 52-week high?
Dmall Inc trades at HK$8.55, about 14% below its 52-week high of HK$9.97 and 119% above the low of HK$3.91 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dmall Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dmall Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$8.55, calculated fair value HK$4.97 (−42%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2586 calculated?
We run Dmall Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Dmall Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$8.55. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.97, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dmall Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Dmall Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The market capitalisation of Dmall Inc is HK$7.8B (≈ $997M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dmall Inc is 3.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dmall Inc (2586)?
Earnings per share at Dmall Inc are HK$0.1669 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The net margin of Dmall Inc is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dmall Inc is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dmall Inc (2586)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dmall Inc is −27.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dmall Inc (2586)?
The operating margin of Dmall Inc is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dmall Inc (2586)?
Revenue at Dmall Inc is growing +24.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Dmall Inc (2586) hold?
Dmall Inc holds more cash than debt, 492M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Dmall Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Dmall Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
