Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp TWD 22.72, price TWD 25.55, upside -11.1%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation constructs, operates, and manages railway systems and related facilities in Taiwan. The company operates a 350-kilometer rail system passing through Nangang, Taipei, Banqiao, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Taichung, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, and Zuoying stations.
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Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation constructs, operates, and manages railway systems and related facilities in Taiwan. The company operates a 350-kilometer rail system passing through Nangang, Taipei, Banqiao, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Taichung, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, and Zuoying stations. It also offers accessibility services; standard, business, and accessible car services; in-train shop that provides snack, beverage, bread, gift set, meal box, themed souvenirs, and vending machines; and in-train magazine. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633) currently trades at 25.55 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.72 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 12.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 40.71 TWD per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the 25.55 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 6.71 TWD, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 16.38 TWD (bear) to 27.52 TWD (bull), the price of 25.55 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp reported revenue of 54.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 30.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B TWD in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 144B TWD (≈ $4.5B) · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 2.63 · EPS (TTM) 1.17 TWD · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −11%, 2633 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 16.38 TWDFair Value 22.72 TWDBull 27.52 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0146 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs −6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 39%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.0% a year for the price.
Compare Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.98× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2633
Frequently asked questions
Is Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.72 TWD versus a price of 25.55 TWD, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2633?
Our model-based fair value for Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 22.72 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25.55 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2633?
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.72 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16.38 TWD, optimistic scenario 27.52 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.72 TWD, about −11% upside versus a price of 25.55 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 16.38 TWD, optimistic scenario 27.52 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 55.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp pay a dividend?
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2633 use?
Our models discount Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp that is +3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies +3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (+3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.34 %: that much free cash flow Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp it is 22.72 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 25.55 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2633 trades above its calculated fair value: price 25.55 TWD, fair value 22.72 TWD, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2633?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25.55 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.72 TWD). For Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp the two are 2.83 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp worth?
The market values Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp at about 144B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 25.55 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 22.72 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2633?
Our models span a range for Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp: cautious scenario 16.38 TWD, base 22.72 TWD, optimistic 27.52 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 25.55 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2633?
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 22.72 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Balance-sheet figures for Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 3.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2633 from its 52-week high?
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp trades at 25.55 TWD, about 11% below its 52-week high of 28.70 TWD and 3% above the low of 24.80 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.72 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 25.55 TWD, calculated fair value 22.72 TWD (−11%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2633 calculated?
We run Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.72 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 25.55 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 22.72 TWD, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The market capitalisation of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 144B TWD (≈ $4.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 2.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp are 1.17 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The dividend yield of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 4.5% (payout 98.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The net margin of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
The operating margin of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 43.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Revenue at Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp are growing +12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp (2633) carry?
The net debt of Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp is 223B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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