Xinming China Holdings Ltd (2699) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$26.4M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$4.54 to HK$4.55 (+0.2%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +17.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$4.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (HK$4.01 to HK$4.55), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0059 – HK$6.10 · fair‑value band HK$4.01 – HK$4.55 · the HK$5.81 price screens above the HK$4.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Xinming China Holdings Ltd (2699) currently trades at HK$5.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.55, implying the stock looks roughly 21.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$109M. Net debt stands at HK$1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.01 (bear case) to HK$4.55 (bull case); at HK$5.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -22%, 2699 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xinming China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, develops, leases, and manages residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, and Others segments. It engages in property investment and investment management activities.
Full company description
Xinming China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, develops, leases, and manages residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, and Others segments. It engages in property investment and investment management activities. Xinming China Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xinming China Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$109M in FY2025 versus HK$102M in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$219M in FY2025.
2699 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 591 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹661.75 | ₹146.13 | -78% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,209 | ₹583.43 | -52% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,150 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 595.00 IDR | 1,488 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 73.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +15% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 610.00 IDR | 1,525 IDR | +150% |
| Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH | 18,150 VND | 20,338 VND | +12% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,300 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +45% |
| PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS | 147.00 IDR | 164.33 IDR | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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