China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$499M
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 15, 2026, revised from HK$0.2779 to HK$0.2771 (−0.3%) since Aug 6, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1858 to HK$0.3725) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from HK$0.1858 (bear) to HK$0.3725 (bull), base HK$0.2771. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2950 – HK$1.78 · fair‑value band HK$0.1858 – HK$0.3725 · the HK$0.3100 price screens above the HK$0.2771 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) currently trades at HK$0.3100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2771, implying the stock looks roughly 10.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Xinhua Education Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$658M at a net margin of 51.4%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$11.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1858 (bear case) to HK$0.3725 (bull case); at HK$0.3100, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -11%, 2779 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$3.39) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.7400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Xinhua Education Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides higher and secondary vocational education services in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
China Xinhua Education Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides higher and secondary vocational education services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates four private schools, which include Anhui Xinhua University, Clinical College of Anhui Medical University, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics Hongshan College; and Anhui Xinhua School. It also offers technical and management consultancy services, as well as formal undergraduate and junior college education services. China Xinhua Education Group Limited was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Hefei, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$658M in FY2025 versus HK$565M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$338M in FY2025, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
2779 screens 11% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 875.84 MXN | -9% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $11.87 | $15.60 | +31% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.99 | $41.45 | +12% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹123.90 | ₹14.81 | -88% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $142.06 | $152.01 | +7% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $128.22 | $135.45 | +6% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $78.59 | $139.45 | +77% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $25.64 | $20.98 | -18% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.24 | $40.65 | +30% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $79.98 | $105.48 | +32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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