China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd HK$3.13, price HK$0.36, upside +781.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2950 – HK$1.78 · fair‑value band HK$2.11 – HK$4.50 · the HK$0.3550 price screens below the HK$3.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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China Xinhua Education Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides higher and secondary vocational education services in the People's Republic of China.
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China Xinhua Education Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides higher and secondary vocational education services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates four private schools, which include Anhui Xinhua University, Clinical College of Anhui Medical University, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics Hongshan College; and Anhui Xinhua School. It also offers technical and management consultancy services, as well as formal undergraduate and junior college education services. China Xinhua Education Group Limited was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Hefei, China.
Stock analysis
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) currently trades at HK$0.3550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.13, implying the stock looks roughly 88.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$3.96 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$0.3550 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.7500, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.11 (bear) to HK$4.50 (bull), the price of HK$0.3550 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd reported revenue of 658M CNY in FY2025 versus 565M CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was 338M CNY in FY2025, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$571M (≈ $72.8M) · P/E ratio 1.3 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1600 · Net margin 51.4% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin 26.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 782%, 2779 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.11Fair Value HK$3.13Bull HK$4.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1210 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.8% vs 8.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.71% → 54%
Compare China Xinhua Education Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.7% · Below median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)51.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)18.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Xinhua Education Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2779
Frequently asked questions
Is China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.13 versus a price of HK$0.3550, about +782% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2779?
Our model-based fair value for China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is HK$3.13 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3550.
What is the quality score of 2779?
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.13 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.11, optimistic scenario HK$4.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Xinhua Education Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.13, about +782% upside versus a price of HK$0.3550 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.11, optimistic scenario HK$4.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 658M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Xinhua Education Group Ltd it is HK$3.13 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3550. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Xinhua Education Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 2779 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3550, fair value HK$3.13, a gap of about +782% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2779?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.13). For China Xinhua Education Group Ltd the two are HK$2.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Xinhua Education Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Xinhua Education Group Ltd at about HK$571M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3550; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2779?
Our models span a range for China Xinhua Education Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.11, base HK$3.13, optimistic HK$4.50 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$0.3550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2779?
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2779 from its 52-week high?
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd trades at HK$0.3550, about 53% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7600 and 20% above the low of HK$0.2950 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Xinhua Education Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Xinhua Education Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.3550, calculated fair value HK$3.13 (+782%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2779 calculated?
We run China Xinhua Education Group Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Xinhua Education Group Ltd currently trades 89 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.3550. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.13, about +782% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Xinhua Education Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.11 to HK$4.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) come from?
Earnings per share at China Xinhua Education Group Ltd grew +9.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.3 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
The market capitalisation of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is HK$571M (≈ $72.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
Earnings per share at China Xinhua Education Group Ltd are HK$0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
The net margin of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is 51.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
The operating margin of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is 26.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
Revenue at China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779)?
Earnings per share at China Xinhua Education Group Ltd are growing −30.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) generate?
The free cash flow of China Xinhua Education Group Ltd is 320M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Xinhua Education Group Ltd (2779) hold?
China Xinhua Education Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 11.9M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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