Beijing Originwater Technology (300070) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Beijing Originwater Technology stock ¥0.35, price ¥3.30, upside -89.4%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.14 – ¥8.54 · fair‑value band ¥0.2700 – ¥0.5200 · the ¥3.30 price screens above the ¥0.3500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Beijing Originwater Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the water treatment business in China and internationally. The company offers sewage treatment technical solutions.
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It also provides recycling with membrane technology, such as scheme and engineering design, electronic control and system integration technology, system installation and engineering technology commissioning, technical support, and managed operation services; and solid waste treatment, atmospheric environment treatment, ecological engineering, and restoration technology related services.
In addition, the company offers light environment construction, municipal, water supply, and drainage related services, as well as produces membranes, membrane modules, membrane materials and elements, membrane module systems, and membrane equipment used in household water purifiers and drinking water.
Further, it engages in the municipal sewage and industrial wastewater treatment, tap water treatment, seawater desalination, civil water purification, wetland protection, and reconstruction businesses; general and professional contracting; environmental pollution treatment engineering design; construction project management; technical consulting; and water production, supply, and drainage activities.
Beijing Originwater Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Beijing Originwater Technology (300070) currently trades at ¥3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3500, 89.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥2.13 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥3.30 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.1300, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.2700 (bear) to ¥0.5200 (bull), the price of ¥3.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Beijing Originwater Technology reported revenue of 7.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 61.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.0B CNY (≈ $1.8B) Small · P/E ratio 66.0 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −89%, 300070 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0400 to ¥5.67). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥0.2700Fair Value ¥0.3500Bull¥0.5200
Price ¥3.30 · Upside -89.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0377 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−45.8% vs −28.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 15%
Compare Beijing Originwater Technology with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−89.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)66.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.44× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.56× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA17.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.14× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 37
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Beijing Originwater Technology (300070) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.3500 versus a price of ¥3.30, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300070?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Originwater Technology is ¥0.3500 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.30.
What is the quality score of 300070?
Beijing Originwater Technology has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.3500 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.2700, optimistic scenario ¥0.5200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing Originwater Technology stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.3500, about −89% upside versus a price of ¥3.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.2700, optimistic scenario ¥0.5200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Beijing Originwater Technology reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Beijing Originwater Technology pay a dividend?
Beijing Originwater Technology currently shows a dividend yield of 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beijing Originwater Technology it is ¥0.3500 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥3.30. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beijing Originwater Technology stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 300070 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.30, fair value ¥0.3500, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300070?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.3500). For Beijing Originwater Technology the two are ¥2.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beijing Originwater Technology worth?
The market values Beijing Originwater Technology at about 12.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.30; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.3500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300070?
Our models span a range for Beijing Originwater Technology: cautious scenario ¥0.2700, base ¥0.3500, optimistic ¥0.5200 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥3.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300070?
Beijing Originwater Technology trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.0 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.3500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.4, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 17.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 300070?
The PEG ratio of Beijing Originwater Technology is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 26, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beijing Originwater Technology (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300070 from its 52-week high?
Beijing Originwater Technology trades at ¥3.30, about 27% below its 52-week high of ¥4.51 and 3% above the low of ¥3.19 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.3500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beijing Originwater Technology?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beijing Originwater Technology stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥3.30, calculated fair value ¥0.3500 (−89%), Quality Score 39/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300070 calculated?
We run Beijing Originwater Technology through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.3500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Beijing Originwater Technology itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥3.30. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.3500, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beijing Originwater Technology right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.5200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.2700 to ¥0.5200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070) come from?
Earnings per share at Beijing Originwater Technology grew −10.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin −14.0 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Beijing Originwater Technology
How large is the market capitalisation of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The market capitalisation of Beijing Originwater Technology is 12.0B CNY (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beijing Originwater Technology is 1.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Originwater Technology are ¥0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The dividend yield of Beijing Originwater Technology is 0.1% (payout 8.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The net margin of Beijing Originwater Technology is 2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beijing Originwater Technology is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beijing Originwater Technology is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
The operating margin of Beijing Originwater Technology is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Revenue at Beijing Originwater Technology is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Beijing Originwater Technology (300070)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Originwater Technology are growing +0.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Beijing Originwater Technology (300070) generate?
The free cash flow of Beijing Originwater Technology is −958M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Beijing Originwater Technology (300070) carry?
The net debt of Beijing Originwater Technology is 18.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 26, 2026