AVCON Information Tech (300074) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AVCON Information Tech is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.53 – ¥5.99 · fair‑value band ¥0.4000 – ¥0.4500 · the ¥3.69 price screens above the ¥0.4200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
AVCON Information Technology Co., Ltd. provides video products and applications in China and internationally.
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AVCON Information Technology Co., Ltd. provides video products and applications in China and internationally. The company offers online education products, such as online classroom server and terminal, and classroom camera; digital surveillance products, that includes AMP monitoring and management platform, HTVS video wall terminal, MAS monitoring gateway, and network hard disk video recorder; video conferencing products, such as multipoint control unit, and wireless individual soldier; and general products, that includes recording and broadcasting servers, audio processors, microphone, and keyboard. It also provides emergency command products, such as integrated image management platform, portable routing center station, HD camera, wireless microphone, satellite portable station, command video terminal, individual soldier and vehicle, detachable aerial and injection truck image terminal, HD ball control, mobile office APP, APP management server, reduce scene image, IP video phone, touch control console, telephone digital trunking, and cluster and video access gateway, as well as national standard, MGS embedded video, and MPH embedded conference gateway. In addition, the company provides smart community services; video surveillance used in various fields, such as security prevention, traffic control, and enterprise management; cloud video platform, a cloud and terminal high-definition video collaboration platform based on cloud computing, including private cloud, public cloud, hybrid cloud, and audio and video communication technology; and ICU ward monitoring and visiting subsystem, remote and multi-department consultation subsystem, mobile and field rescue subsystem, and in-hospital instant messaging subsystem. It serves government, fire protection, banking, insurance, education, medical care, telecommunications, energy, and manufacturing industries. AVCON Information Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
AVCON Information Tech (300074) currently trades at ¥3.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.4200, implying the stock looks roughly 778.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥1.04 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥3.69 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.0900, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.4000 (bear) to ¥0.4500 (bull), the price of ¥3.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
AVCON Information Tech reported revenue of 295M CNY in FY2025 versus 449M CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.9%/yr. Reported net income was −186M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0B CNY (≈ $302M) · P/S ratio 7.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3100 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −63.1% · Return on equity −20.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% · Operating margin −5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −89%, 300074 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0900 to ¥1.04). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥0.4000Fair Value ¥0.4200Bull ¥0.4500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.4% (2020) → −26.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 301 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−63% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF109.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AVCON Information Tech Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300074
Frequently asked questions
Is AVCON Information Tech (300074) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.4200 versus a price of ¥3.69, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300074?
Our model-based fair value for AVCON Information Tech is ¥0.4200 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.69.
What is the quality score of 300074?
AVCON Information Tech has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.4200 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.4000, optimistic scenario ¥0.4500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AVCON Information Tech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.4200, about −89% upside versus a price of ¥3.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.4000, optimistic scenario ¥0.4500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
AVCON Information Tech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 295M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does AVCON Information Tech pay a dividend?
AVCON Information Tech currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AVCON Information Tech would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300074 use?
Our models discount AVCON Information Tech at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AVCON Information Tech that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AVCON Information Tech (300074) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AVCON Information Tech grew -7.9 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AVCON Information Tech (300074) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AVCON Information Tech (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.14 %: that much free cash flow AVCON Information Tech produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AVCON Information Tech it is ¥0.4200 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥3.69. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AVCON Information Tech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 300074 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.69, fair value ¥0.4200, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300074?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.4200). For AVCON Information Tech the two are ¥3.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AVCON Information Tech worth?
The market values AVCON Information Tech at about 2.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.69; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.4200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300074?
Our models span a range for AVCON Information Tech: cautious scenario ¥0.4000, base ¥0.4200, optimistic ¥0.4500 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥3.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
Balance-sheet figures for AVCON Information Tech (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −20.2%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300074 from its 52-week high?
AVCON Information Tech trades at ¥3.69, about 35% below its 52-week high of ¥5.65 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.4200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AVCON Information Tech?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AVCON Information Tech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥3.69, calculated fair value ¥0.4200 (−89%), Quality Score 36/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300074 calculated?
We run AVCON Information Tech through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.4200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. AVCON Information Tech itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with AVCON Information Tech right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥0.4000 to ¥0.4500), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of AVCON Information Tech
How large is the market capitalisation of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The market capitalisation of AVCON Information Tech is 2.0B CNY (≈ $302M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AVCON Information Tech is 7.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
Earnings per share at AVCON Information Tech are ¥−0.3100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The dividend yield of AVCON Information Tech is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The net margin of AVCON Information Tech is −63.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AVCON Information Tech is −20.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AVCON Information Tech is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
The operating margin of AVCON Information Tech is −5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
Revenue at AVCON Information Tech is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AVCON Information Tech (300074)?
Earnings per share at AVCON Information Tech are growing −59.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AVCON Information Tech (300074) hold?
AVCON Information Tech holds more cash than debt, 145M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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