Xiamen Changelight (300102) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Xiamen Changelight is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.89 – ¥43.33 · fair‑value band ¥6.80 – ¥10.96 · the ¥17.01 price screens above the ¥8.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Xiamen Changelight Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sales of compound semiconductor optoelectronic products in China and internationally.
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Xiamen Changelight Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sales of compound semiconductor optoelectronic products in China and internationally. The company offers LED chips, epitaxial wafers, gallium arsenide solar cells, LEDs/micro-LEDs, and VCSEL products for use in digital, matrix, display, traffic and black lights, lamps, indicators, and other fields. Xiamen Changelight Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Xiamen, China.
Stock analysis
Xiamen Changelight (300102) currently trades at ¥17.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.44, implying the stock looks roughly 101.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥9.41 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥17.01 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.04, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥6.80 (bear) to ¥10.96 (bull), the price of ¥17.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xiamen Changelight reported revenue of 3.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was 115M CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 22.5B CNY (≈ $3.4B) · P/E ratio 141.8 · P/S ratio 4.78 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −50%, 300102 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥1.04 to ¥18.23). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥6.80Fair Value ¥8.44Bull ¥10.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0493 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 3%
2025 sits 92% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−47% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)141.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)7.41× · Pricier than median
P/FCF8.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA49.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xiamen Changelight Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300102
Frequently asked questions
Is Xiamen Changelight (300102) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.44 versus a price of ¥17.01, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300102?
Our model-based fair value for Xiamen Changelight is ¥8.44 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥17.01.
What is the quality score of 300102?
Xiamen Changelight has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.44 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.80, optimistic scenario ¥10.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xiamen Changelight stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.44, about −50% upside versus a price of ¥17.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.80, optimistic scenario ¥10.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
Xiamen Changelight reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Xiamen Changelight pay a dividend?
Xiamen Changelight currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xiamen Changelight would have to grow free cash flow by +19.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300102 use?
Our models discount Xiamen Changelight at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xiamen Changelight that is +19.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xiamen Changelight (300102) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xiamen Changelight grew +20.9 % a year. The price currently implies +19.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xiamen Changelight (300102) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xiamen Changelight (+19.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.61 %: that much free cash flow Xiamen Changelight produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiamen Changelight it is ¥8.44 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ¥17.01. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xiamen Changelight stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 300102 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥17.01, fair value ¥8.44, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300102?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥17.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.44). For Xiamen Changelight the two are ¥8.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xiamen Changelight worth?
The market values Xiamen Changelight at about 22.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥17.01; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300102?
Our models span a range for Xiamen Changelight: cautious scenario ¥6.80, base ¥8.44, optimistic ¥10.96 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ¥17.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300102?
Xiamen Changelight trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 141.8 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.2, P/S 7.4, EV/EBITDA 49.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xiamen Changelight (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300102 from its 52-week high?
Xiamen Changelight trades at ¥17.01, about 64% below its 52-week high of ¥46.73 and 56% above the low of ¥10.92 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xiamen Changelight?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xiamen Changelight stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ¥17.01, calculated fair value ¥8.44 (−50%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300102 calculated?
We run Xiamen Changelight through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Xiamen Changelight itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Xiamen Changelight right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Xiamen Changelight
How large is the market capitalisation of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The market capitalisation of Xiamen Changelight is 22.5B CNY (≈ $3.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xiamen Changelight is 4.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
Earnings per share at Xiamen Changelight are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 141.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The dividend yield of Xiamen Changelight is 0.3% (payout 41.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The net margin of Xiamen Changelight is 3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xiamen Changelight is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiamen Changelight is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
The operating margin of Xiamen Changelight is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xiamen Changelight (300102)?
Revenue at Xiamen Changelight is growing −47.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Xiamen Changelight (300102) carry?
The net debt of Xiamen Changelight is 264M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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