Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd stock ¥2.74, price ¥26.57, upside -89.7%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.46 – ¥47.45 · fair‑value band ¥2.74 – ¥2.91 · the ¥26.57 price screens above the ¥2.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech. Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, design, production, and sales of thermal management equipment and control systems in China and internationally.
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The company offers high power electronics thermal management products, including semiconductor valves, static var compensator, high voltage frequency converter, big science and nuclear medicine, mechanical rotating components, and mechanical static components; and high power density devices thermal management products, such as electric energy storage and data center.
It also provides engineering operation and maintenance services comprising annual overhaul, technical renovation, and site resident technical services; and key components, including air cooler, cooling tower, canned pump, piping system, and water distribution pipeline.
The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499) currently trades at ¥26.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.74, 89.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥4.64 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥26.57 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.39, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.74 (bear) to ¥2.91 (bull), the price of ¥26.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd reported revenue of 989M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −12.4%/yr. Reported net income was 28.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.1B CNY (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/E ratio 295.2 · P/S ratio 7.62 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0900 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −90%, 300499 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0400 to ¥19.56). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥2.74Fair Value ¥2.74Bull¥2.91
Price ¥26.57 · Upside -89.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0196 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.0% vs −6.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.9% a year for the price.
Compare Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 785 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−89.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)41.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)295.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.62× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow95.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300499
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.74 versus a price of ¥26.57, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300499?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is ¥2.74 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥26.57.
What is the quality score of 300499?
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.74 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.74, optimistic scenario ¥2.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.74, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥26.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.74, optimistic scenario ¥2.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +43.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.2 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300499 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd that is +43.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd grew -4.2 % a year. The price currently implies +43.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (+43.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.05 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd it is ¥2.74 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of ¥26.57. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 300499 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥26.57, fair value ¥2.74, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300499?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥26.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.74). For Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd the two are ¥23.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd at about 8.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is ¥26.57; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300499?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.74, base ¥2.74, optimistic ¥2.91 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price ¥26.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300499?
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 295.2 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 2.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300499 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd trades at ¥26.57, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥47.45 and 12% above the low of ¥23.80 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price ¥26.57, calculated fair value ¥2.74 (−90%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300499 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥26.57. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.74, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥2.74 to ¥2.91), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 8.1B CNY (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 7.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd are ¥0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 295.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 0.2% (payout 73.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd is growing +41.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd are growing −22.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd (300499) hold?
Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 120M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 25, 2026