Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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A solid business, but trading 87% above our fair value of ¥7.64.
As of Sep 11, 2026, the fair value of Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd is ¥7.64 per share against a price of ¥14.27, so the fair value sits 46% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.5% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange ¥5.36 to ¥9.92
Fair value as of: Sep 11, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 11, 2026, revised from ¥1.14 to ¥7.64 (+570.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −9.1% over the past month.
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What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (¥5.36 to ¥9.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.88 – ¥27.41 · fair‑value band ¥5.36 – ¥9.92 · the ¥14.27 price screens above the ¥7.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 11, 2026.
Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786) currently trades at ¥14.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.64, implying the stock looks roughly 86.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥4.04 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥14.27 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.9300, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd generated revenue of 578M CNY at a net margin of −1.5%. Revenue grew 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.6%. Net debt stands at 40.1M CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 11, 2026
Scenario range: ¥5.36 (bear) to ¥9.92 (bull), the price of ¥14.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −46%, 300786 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio6.99TTM
EPS (TTM)¥−0.0400
Dividend yield0.1%
Net margin−3.5%FY2025
Return on equity−0.6%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)0.4%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin6.7%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)578M CNYTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+16.8%3y avg +24.0%
EPS growth (YoY)−74.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow24.8M CNYFY2025
Net debt40.1M CNYFY2024 · ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality58/100
Of which business quality 56
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Profitability11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility25
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance80
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Qingdao Guolin Technology Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance of ozone equipment.
Full company description
Qingdao Guolin Technology Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the design and manufacture, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance of ozone equipment. The company offers ozone generators, hydrogen machine water, oxygen atom generators, air purifiers, glyoxylic acids, gas detecting and ozone concentration analyzers, ball valves, thermostatic chillers, and water-cooled cabinet industrial air conditioning and refrigerated air dryers. It also provides piezoelectric ceramics, such as fuses, cleaning vibrators, piezoelectric vibrators, needles, tire balancers, sorting machines, and automatic performance testing machines, as well as ozone gas delivery systems, electronic grade ozone gas generators, semiconductor ozonated water systems, photovoltaic concentration ozonated water systems, ozone dissolved concentration analyzers, and mobile type ozonated water systems. The company's products are used in municipal water, wastewater, industry sewage, flue gas denitrification, chemical oxidation, petroleum, semiconductor, medical, agriculture, and other fields. The company was formerly known as Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Qingdao Guolin Technology Group Co.,Ltd. in January 2023. Qingdao Guolin Technology Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd reported revenue of 558M CNY in FY2025 versus 496M CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −19.4M CNY in FY2025.
Growth Quality 45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
558M CNY
Latest YoY
+13.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.0%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22.5% (2020) → 2.6% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300786
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 806 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.04× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF24.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.5× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+36.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+6.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price0.94 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models12.3 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE84· sector 21
PAST0· sector 28
HEALTH97· sector 96
DIVIDEND2· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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Is Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.64 versus a price of ¥14.27, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300786?
Our model-based fair value for Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd is ¥7.64 (as of Sep 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥14.27.
What is the quality score of 300786?
Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.64 (as of Sep 11, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.36, optimistic scenario ¥9.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.64, about −46% upside versus a price of ¥14.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.36, optimistic scenario ¥9.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786)?
Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 578M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 300786?
The net profit margin of Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd is about −1.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 11, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +36.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 12.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Sep 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300786 use?
Our models discount Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd it is ¥7.64 per share (as of Sep 11, 2026), against a price of ¥14.27. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 11, 2026, 300786 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥14.27, fair value ¥7.64, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300786?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥14.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.64). For Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd the two are ¥6.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd at about 4.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 11, 2026). Per share that is ¥14.27; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300786?
Our models span a range for Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.36, base ¥7.64, optimistic ¥9.92 per share (as of Sep 11, 2026, price ¥14.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (300786)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd (as of Sep 11, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300786 from its 52-week high?
Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd trades at ¥14.27, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥22.14 and 7% above the low of ¥13.36 (as of Sep 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 11, 2026: price ¥14.27, calculated fair value ¥7.64 (−46%), Quality Score 58/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300786 calculated?
We run Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Guolin Environmental Tech Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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