Citic Press Corporation (300788) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · CN · Market cap 4.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥15.72 to ¥15.05 (−4.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥18.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥16.15 – ¥46.70 · fair‑value band ¥11.29 – ¥18.81 · the ¥25.72 price screens above the ¥15.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Citic Press Corporation (300788) currently trades at ¥25.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.05, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Citic Press Corporation generated revenue of 1.7B CNY at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥11.29 (bear case) to ¥18.81 (bull case); at ¥25.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at -41%, 300788 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥22.62) versus Dividend Discount (¥5.97). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Citic Press Corporation engages in the book publishing and distribution, digital services, and urban cultural space operations business in China and internationally. It operates through Book Publishing and Distribution; and Cultural Consumption and Other Value-Added Services segments.
Full company description
Citic Press Corporation engages in the book publishing and distribution, digital services, and urban cultural space operations business in China and internationally. It operates through Book Publishing and Distribution; and Cultural Consumption and Other Value-Added Services segments. The company also operates a chain of bookstores under the CITIC brand, as well as offers digital reading products, courses, podcasts, video programs, enterprise learning platforms, AI intelligent agents, digital content distribution, and millet and plush toys. It offers its products through online and offline direct sales, and partnerships. The company was formerly known as CITIC Press Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CITIC Press Corporation in September 2013. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Citic Press Corporation operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Citic Press Corporation reported revenue of ¥1.7B in FY2025 versus ¥1.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥130M in FY2025, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2021.
300788 screens 41% overvalued. Compare with The New York Times Company →
Peer Group
Publishing · 110 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Publishing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times Company NYT | $76.71 | $41.95 | -45% |
| Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation 601928 | ¥9.20 | ¥10.07 | +9% |
| China Science Publishing & Media Ltd 601858 | ¥26.32 | ¥10.31 | -61% |
| People.cn CO., LTD 603000 | ¥17.10 | ¥4.23 | -75% |
| China South Publishing & Media Group 601098 | ¥10.43 | ¥14.66 | +41% |
| John Wiley & Sons, Inc WLY | $49.51 | $57.01 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Publishing & Media Co 601921 | ¥7.15 | ¥7.54 | +5% |
| Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co 601811 | ¥11.87 | ¥21.61 | +82% |
| Shandong Publishing&Media Co 601019 | ¥6.98 | ¥11.60 | +66% |
| Guangdong Guangzhou Daily Media Co 002181 | ¥7.61 | ¥1.35 | -82% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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