Citic Press Corp (300788) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Citic Press Corp ¥15.05, price ¥34.79, upside -56.7%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥16.15 – ¥46.70 · fair‑value band ¥11.29 – ¥18.81 · the ¥34.79 price screens above the ¥15.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Citic Press Corporation engages in the book publishing and distribution, digital services, and urban cultural space operations business in China and internationally. It operates through Book Publishing and Distribution; and Cultural Consumption and Other Value-Added Services segments.
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Citic Press Corporation engages in the book publishing and distribution, digital services, and urban cultural space operations business in China and internationally. It operates through Book Publishing and Distribution; and Cultural Consumption and Other Value-Added Services segments. The company also operates a chain of bookstores under the CITIC brand, as well as offers digital reading products, courses, podcasts, video programs, enterprise learning platforms, AI intelligent agents, digital content distribution, and millet and plush toys. It offers its products through online and offline direct sales, and partnerships. The company was formerly known as CITIC Press Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CITIC Press Corporation in September 2013. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Citic Press Corporation operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Limited.
Stock analysis
Citic Press Corp (300788) currently trades at ¥34.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.05, implying the stock looks roughly 131.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥22.03 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥34.79 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.07, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥11.29 (bear) to ¥18.81 (bull), the price of ¥34.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Citic Press Corp reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 130M CNY in FY2025, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.6B CNY (≈ $988M) · P/E ratio 57.0 · P/S ratio 4.38 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6100 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −57%, 300788 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥11.29Fair Value ¥15.05Bull ¥18.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1902 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.5% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Publishing · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)57.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.45× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.59× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF4.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Citic Press Corp (300788) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥15.05 versus a price of ¥34.79, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300788?
Our model-based fair value for Citic Press Corp is ¥15.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥34.79.
What is the quality score of 300788?
Citic Press Corp has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥15.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.29, optimistic scenario ¥18.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citic Press Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥15.05, about −57% upside versus a price of ¥34.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.29, optimistic scenario ¥18.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Citic Press Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Citic Press Corp pay a dividend?
Citic Press Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Citic Press Corp (300788)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Citic Press Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300788 use?
Our models discount Citic Press Corp at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Citic Press Corp that is +15.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Citic Press Corp (300788) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Citic Press Corp grew -2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +15.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Citic Press Corp (300788) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Citic Press Corp (+15.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.59 %: that much free cash flow Citic Press Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Citic Press Corp it is ¥15.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥34.79. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Citic Press Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 300788 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥34.79, fair value ¥15.05, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300788?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥34.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥15.05). For Citic Press Corp the two are ¥19.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Citic Press Corp worth?
The market values Citic Press Corp at about 6.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥34.79; our models calculate a fair value of ¥15.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300788?
Our models span a range for Citic Press Corp: cautious scenario ¥11.29, base ¥15.05, optimistic ¥18.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥34.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300788?
Citic Press Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥15.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Balance-sheet figures for Citic Press Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300788 from its 52-week high?
Citic Press Corp trades at ¥34.79, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥46.70 and 55% above the low of ¥22.47 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥15.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Citic Press Corp?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The New York Times Company, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation, China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, People.cn CO., LTD, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Citic Press Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥34.79, calculated fair value ¥15.05 (−57%), Quality Score 69/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300788 calculated?
We run Citic Press Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥15.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Citic Press Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥34.79. Our model-based fair value is ¥15.05, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Citic Press Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥18.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Citic Press Corp (300788) come from?
Earnings per share at Citic Press Corp grew −3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin −5.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Citic Press Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The market capitalisation of Citic Press Corp is 6.6B CNY (≈ $988M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Citic Press Corp is 4.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Earnings per share at Citic Press Corp are ¥0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The dividend yield of Citic Press Corp is 1.0% (payout 57.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The net margin of Citic Press Corp is 7.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Citic Press Corp is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Citic Press Corp is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Citic Press Corp (300788)?
The operating margin of Citic Press Corp is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Revenue at Citic Press Corp is growing −4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Citic Press Corp (300788)?
Earnings per share at Citic Press Corp are growing −24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Citic Press Corp (300788) hold?
Citic Press Corp holds more cash than debt, 1.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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