Nanjing Railway New Technology Co (301016) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 33 days ago
Share price −1.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.75 – ¥20.93 · fair‑value band ¥2.70 – ¥4.07 · the ¥13.15 price screens above the ¥3.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Nanjing Railway New Technology Co (301016) currently trades at ¥13.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.03, implying the stock looks roughly 77.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nanjing Railway New Technology Co generated revenue of 382M CNY at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue declined 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 275M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.70 (bear case) to ¥4.07 (bull case); at ¥13.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -77%, 301016 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥3.94) versus Growth DCF (¥1.02). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nanjing Railway New Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of rail vehicle body parts, bogie parts, and electrical system components in China and internationally. The company offers stainless steel, aluminum alloy, carbon steel, machining, fabricated and electrical finished, and other products.
Full company description
Nanjing Railway New Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of rail vehicle body parts, bogie parts, and electrical system components in China and internationally. The company offers stainless steel, aluminum alloy, carbon steel, machining, fabricated and electrical finished, and other products. It includes end frames, driver's cabs, wall panels, roofs, molded parts, body assemblies, bogie and braking systems, metal and rubber parts, precision forgings, embedded controllers, switch and button assemblies, battery management systems, axle temperature alarm systems, and wheel flange lubrication systems. The company's products are used in railway and urban rail transit sectors. Nanjing Railway New Technology Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is based in Nanjing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nanjing Railway New Technology Co reported revenue of ¥385M in FY2025 versus ¥510M in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥70.8M in FY2025, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2021.
301016 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 112 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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