Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. ¥4.25, price ¥16.97, upside -75.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.13 – ¥37.90 · fair‑value band ¥3.19 – ¥5.32 · the ¥16.97 price screens above the ¥4.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co., Ltd. engages in providing technical services. The company provides survey and design, planning consultation, and project operation and management services for water construction projects. It offers urban water resources supply, water security, water environment restoration, and other services.
Show more
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co., Ltd. engages in providing technical services. The company provides survey and design, planning consultation, and project operation and management services for water construction projects. It offers urban water resources supply, water security, water environment restoration, and other services. It provides survey services, including engineering inspection and measurement, hydrological surveying and mapping, water conservancy and water affairs survey, hydrogeological survey, geotechnical engineering survey, and other projects. In addition, the company design services, such as engineering design of water conservancy projects, water diversion, irrigation and drainage, river regulation, urban flood control, soil and water conservation, and hydrological facilities, as well as municipal water supply and drainage, transmission and transformation electrical, architectural, and landscape architecture engineering design services; and generates hydropower. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038) currently trades at ¥16.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.25, implying the stock looks roughly 299.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥5.17 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥16.97 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.96, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥3.19 (bear) to ¥5.32 (bull), the price of ¥16.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 784M CNY in FY2025 versus 935M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 52.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −16.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.3B CNY (≈ $639M) · P/E ratio 80.8 · P/S ratio 5.43 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2100 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −75%, 301038 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.19Fair Value ¥4.25Bull ¥5.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1536 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 12%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.0% a year for the price.
Compare Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 65 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−55% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)80.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.56× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF15.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA68.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 66
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301038
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.25 versus a price of ¥16.97, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301038?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is ¥4.25 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.97.
What is the quality score of 301038?
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.25 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.19, optimistic scenario ¥5.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.25, about −75% upside versus a price of ¥16.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.19, optimistic scenario ¥5.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 770M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +38.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301038 use?
Our models discount Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. that is +38.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +38.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (+38.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.11 %: that much free cash flow Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. it is ¥4.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥16.97. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301038 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.97, fair value ¥4.25, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301038?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.25). For Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. the two are ¥12.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. at about 4.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.97; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301038?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥3.19, base ¥4.25, optimistic ¥5.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥16.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 301038?
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 80.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥4.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 68.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301038 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. trades at ¥16.97, about 46% below its 52-week high of ¥31.35 and 17% above the low of ¥14.45 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, SBS, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥16.97, calculated fair value ¥4.25 (−75%), Quality Score 58/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301038 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥4.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥16.97. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.25, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is 4.3B CNY (≈ $639M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is 5.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. are ¥0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 80.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is 0.4% (payout 30.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is −55.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. is growing −13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. (301038)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. are growing −60.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
Free · no account needed
Watch Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. in the live analysis
One click puts Shenzhen Water Planning & Design Institute Co. Ltd. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
