Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group (301197) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 3.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥7.89 to ¥7.88 (−0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range ¥8.97 – ¥40.64 · fair‑value band ¥5.90 – ¥9.84 · the ¥24.96 price screens above the ¥7.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group (301197) currently trades at ¥24.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.88, implying the stock looks roughly 68.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group generated revenue of 440M CNY at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue declined 47.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 150.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.90 (bear case) to ¥9.84 (bull case); at ¥24.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -68%, 301197 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.69) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.92). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd., a software company, provides heating operation management and heating energy-saving technical services in China and internationally.
Full company description
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd., a software company, provides heating operation management and heating energy-saving technical services in China and internationally. It offers heating intelligent management platforms for government heating authorities; heating monitoring platforms for heating companies, including software and hardware serialized products; and smart heating information platform. Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Hebei Gongda Keya Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd. in March 2025. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Shijiazhuang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group reported revenue of ¥463M in FY2025 versus ¥403M in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥31.7M in FY2025, compounding −22.1%/yr from FY2021.
301197 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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