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Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group (301197) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 3.6B CNY

HG Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group 301197 · SHE
Price¥24.96
Fair Value¥7.88
Upside-68.4%
Quality52/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 5.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.17% dividend yield
Trails peers (1/13)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥5.90 – ¥9.84 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 9, 2026, revised from ¥7.89 to ¥7.88 (−0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

¥40.64 ¥8.97 Fair Value ¥7.88 Aug 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range ¥8.97 – ¥40.64 · fair‑value band ¥5.90 – ¥9.84 · the ¥24.96 price screens above the ¥7.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group (301197) currently trades at ¥24.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.88, implying the stock looks roughly 68.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group generated revenue of 440M CNY at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue declined 47.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 150.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.90 (bear case) to ¥9.84 (bull case); at ¥24.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -68%, 301197 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥7.74 ¥7.35 ¥5.82 76
ROIC Compounder ¥9.04 ¥9.75 ¥10.36 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.27 ¥4.67 ¥6.07 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥6.94 ¥8.69 ¥11.57 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.79 ¥7.89 ¥10.81 54
Lynch FV ¥2.04 ¥2.92 ¥3.79 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥2.04 ¥2.92 ¥3.79 46
EPV ¥9.04 ¥9.75 ¥10.36 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥3.94 ¥5.26 ¥6.57 63
P/S Multiple ¥3.35 ¥4.47 ¥5.59 58
P/B Multiple ¥3.35 ¥4.47 ¥5.59 55
EV/EBIT ¥12.99 ¥15.80 ¥18.62 53
EV/EBITDA ¥12.59 ¥15.28 ¥17.96 54
EV/Revenue ¥10.24 ¥12.68 ¥15.12 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.53 ¥7.41 ¥11.06 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥7.74 ¥7.35 ¥5.82 76
ROIC Compounder ¥9.04 ¥9.75 ¥10.36 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.27 ¥4.67 ¥6.07 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.69) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.92). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 440M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -47.1%
Net margin 5.2%
Return on equity 1.6%
Free cash flow −13.1M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 150.0
More key figures
Operating margin -32.2%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2000
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -4.6%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd., a software company, provides heating operation management and heating energy-saving technical services in China and internationally.

Full company description

Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd., a software company, provides heating operation management and heating energy-saving technical services in China and internationally. It offers heating intelligent management platforms for government heating authorities; heating monitoring platforms for heating companies, including software and hardware serialized products; and smart heating information platform. Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Hebei Gongda Keya Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd. in March 2025. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Shijiazhuang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group reported revenue of ¥463M in FY2025 versus ¥403M in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥31.7M in FY2025, compounding −22.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
463M CNY
Latest YoY
+17.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+14.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.5%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y)
+7.2%
Revenue +3.5%/yr
FY21 ¥403M
FY22 ¥312M
FY23 ¥358M
FY24 ¥395M
FY25 ¥463M
Net income −22.1%/yr
FY21 ¥86.1M
FY22 ¥40.5M
FY23 ¥56.7M
FY24 ¥55.7M
FY25 ¥31.7M

301197 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301197

Peer Group

Software - Application · 709 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −68% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -32% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -47% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 150.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 8.22× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 80.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 38
PAST 6 · sector 13
HEALTH 98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 3 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAPS C$12.69 C$16.26 +28%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$173.23 C$20.54 -88%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $72.67 $51.11 -30%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $170.77 $182.10 +7%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $107.71 $33.12 -69%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $384.17 $80.41 -79%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $271.87 $34.04 -87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $230.61 $379.48 +65%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $241.92 $177.51 -27%
Intuit Inc INTU $291.09 $258.69 -11%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group (301197) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.88 versus a price of ¥24.96, about −68% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301197?
Our model-based fair value for Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group is ¥7.88 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥24.96.
What is the quality score of 301197?
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group (301197)?
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 440M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 301197?
The net profit margin of Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group is about 5.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group pay a dividend?
Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.17% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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