Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co (301198) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY

A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range ¥5.96 – ¥33.01 · fair‑value band ¥2.08 – ¥3.05 · the ¥12.49 price screens above the ¥2.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co (301198) currently trades at ¥12.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.56, implying the stock looks roughly 79.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co generated revenue of 438M CNY at a net margin of -2.4%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 104M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.08 (bear case) to ¥3.05 (bull case); at ¥12.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -80%, 301198 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥3.59) versus Multiples (¥2.82). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of recyclable packaging appliances.

Full company description

Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of recyclable packaging appliances. The company's products include combined set packaging products, thick-walled blister packaging units, thin-walled blister packaging units, turnover box packaging units, and other series of recyclable plastic packaging products. It also offers small load container, such as EU box, KLT, foldable small load carrier, reinforced load carrier, fresh food container, nest and stack totes, and household totes; pallets and lids, including blow-molded pallet, thermoformed pallet, injected pallet, steel pallet, and compression-moulded pallet; inner packaging, such as custom made trays and custom inner packaging; honeycomb boxes and divider, such as honeycomb boxes and divider sheets; metal rack; big load carrier, including L-GLT sleeves and big foldable containers; and accessories. Its products are used in the production, circulation, transport, and storage of auto parts. It serves new energy batteries, liquor, household appliance, food, automotive, and electronics industries. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Cixi, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co reported revenue of ¥430M in FY2025 versus ¥363M in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥13.3M in FY2025.

301198 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.