China State Construction International Holdings Ltd (3311) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$37.3B (≈ $4.8B) · ISIN KYG216771363

What is China State Construction International Holdings Ltd really worth?

CS China State Construction International Holdings Ltd 3311 · HK

PriceHK$8.57

Fair ValueHK$25.90

Upside+202.2%

Quality36/100

Below-average quality, trading 67% below our fair value of HK$25.90.

As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of China State Construction International Holdings Ltd is HK$25.90 per share against a price of HK$8.57, so the fair value sits 202% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Ranks above peers (9/13)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 8.8% net margin

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!Moderate moat 45/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·6.56% dividend yield

Evidence: Medium Range HK$15.87 – HK$35.55

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from HK$25.85 to HK$25.90 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$15.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
A fairly wide model range (HK$15.87 to HK$35.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.60 – HK$11.99 · fair‑value band HK$15.87 – HK$35.55 · the HK$8.57 price screens below the HK$25.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

China State Construction International Holdings Ltd (3311) currently trades at HK$8.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$25.90, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$36.01 per share, and 17 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$8.57 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$9.95, and 0 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, China State Construction International Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$100B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue declined 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at HK$69.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$15.87 (bear case) to HK$35.55 (bull case); at HK$8.57, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 202%, 3311 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.3056 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

EPV best evidence HK$13.57 HK$16.95 HK$19.90 74

Owner Earnings HK$16.62 HK$36.01 HK$70.07 72

Residual Income HK$13.83 HK$16.47 HK$33.63 72

All 17 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings HK$16.62 HK$36.01 HK$70.07 72

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$12.31 HK$58.52 HK$80.51 64

Lynch FV HK$15.56 HK$22.23 HK$28.90 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$15.56 HK$22.23 HK$28.90 57

EPV best evidence HK$13.57 HK$16.95 HK$19.90 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$5.74 HK$11.94 HK$18.95 66

DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.74 HK$10.07 HK$12.54 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$28.51 HK$38.02 HK$47.52 63

P/S Multiple HK$23.08 HK$30.78 HK$38.47 58

P/B Multiple HK$23.08 HK$30.78 HK$38.47 55

EV/EBIT HK$28.19 HK$39.82 HK$51.45 65

EV/EBITDA HK$21.74 HK$31.22 HK$40.70 67

EV/Revenue HK$18.20 HK$28.87 HK$39.55 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$7.42 HK$9.95 HK$14.85 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$13.83 HK$16.47 HK$33.63 72

ROIC Compounder HK$13.57 HK$19.49 HK$27.18 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$24.46 HK$34.95 HK$45.43 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$36.01) versus Asset-Based (HK$9.95). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 3.7 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.33 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$1.01 price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7

Dividend yield 6.6% payout 55.6%

Net margin 8.8% FY2025

Return on equity 11.9% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% avg 5y

Operating margin 13.4% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$100B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −10.2% 3y avg +2.2%

EPS growth (YoY) −10.9%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow −HK$2.0B FY2025

Net debt HK$69.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 31

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 33

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 11

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 28

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 64

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 71

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 32

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 26

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 56

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

China State Construction International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the construction business for private and public sectors in Hong Kong, Chinese mainland, Macau, and internationally. It invests in and constructs toll roads and bridges, houses, buildings, hospitals, and schools. The company also undertakes civil engineering projects; operation of infrastructure assets; and mechanical and electrical engineering works. In addition, it is involved in undertaking foundation engineering works, general contracting and prefabricated construction, and industrial plant reconstruction activities; road contracts, and investment-driven contracting and other construction related investment businesses. Further, the company provides insurance brokerage, building construction, project and construction management, and installation repairs and maintenance services; curtain wall; sells and distributes construction materials; issues guaranteed notes; holds trademarks; insurance contracts and rental income from investment properties; leases plant and machinery; generates and supplies heat and electricity; manufactures building-integrated photovoltaics curtain walls and other related products; and manufactures and sells precast structures. Additionally, it engages in the marine engineering works, and property investment and management activities; and infrastructure project investments, infrastructure construction and operation, thermoelectricity, toll road operation, industrial plant reconstruction, project consultancy services, and facade contracting businesses. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. China State Construction International Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of China Overseas Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China State Construction International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 109B CNY in FY2025 versus 77.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 9.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 47/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$109B

Latest YoY

−5.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+2.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+11.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+12.9%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+14.1% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+7.5%

Dividend yield6.6%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 7.5% vs 10Y 5.1%, steady

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11.8% (2020) → 13.3% (2025) · rising

Worst earnings drop25% (2018) · in HKD

Revenue +9.0%/yr

FY21 77.3B CNY

FY22 102B CNY

FY23 114B CNY

FY24 115B CNY

FY25 109B CNY

Net income +7.1%/yr

FY21 7.3B CNY

FY22 8.3B CNY

FY23 9.5B CNY

FY24 9.7B CNY

FY25 9.6B CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.5 % p.a.

Revenue per share +9.6 %

of which total revenue +12.3 % · buybacks/dilution −2.4 %

EBIT margin +2.0 %

Tax rate −1.0 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China State Construction International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$25.90 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China State Construction International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3311.HK

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 817 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%

Revenue growth −10% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 6.6% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 0.88× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.48× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.37× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 5.2× · Cheaper than median

PEG 1.36× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 17

FUTURE0 · sector 12

PAST48 · sector 26

HEALTH56 · sector 94

DIVIDEND100 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is China State Construction International Holdings Ltd (3311) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$25.90 versus a price of HK$8.57, about +202% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 3311?

Our model-based fair value for China State Construction International Holdings Ltd is HK$25.90 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.57.

What is the quality score of 3311?

China State Construction International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China State Construction International Holdings Ltd (3311)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$25.90 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$15.87, optimistic scenario HK$35.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China State Construction International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$25.90, about +202% upside versus a price of HK$8.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$15.87, optimistic scenario HK$35.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China State Construction International Holdings Ltd (3311)?

China State Construction International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$100B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3311?

The net profit margin of China State Construction International Holdings Ltd is about 8.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does China State Construction International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?

China State Construction International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.56% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).

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