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Vobile Group Ltd (3738) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$5.8B

VG Vobile Group Ltd 3738 · HK
PriceHK$2.53
Fair ValueHK$2.20
Upside-13.0%
Quality40/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 6.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.26 – HK$2.74 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.57 to HK$2.20 (+40.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +11.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 13% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (HK$1.26 to HK$2.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from HK$1.26 (bear) to HK$2.74 (bull), base HK$2.20. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 40/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$9.64 HK$1.15 Fair Value HK$2.20 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.15 – HK$9.64 · fair‑value band HK$1.26 – HK$2.74 · the HK$2.53 price screens above the HK$2.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Vobile Group Ltd (3738) currently trades at HK$2.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.20, implying the stock looks roughly 13.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Vobile Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.9B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at HK$864M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.26 (bear case) to HK$2.74 (bull case); at HK$2.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -13%, 3738 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.5300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7400 80
ROIC Compounder HK$1.55 HK$1.98 HK$2.37 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.77 HK$3.96 HK$5.15 68
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5300 HK$0.5800 HK$0.7400 38
Owner Earnings HK$2.56 HK$5.15 HK$10.38 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.38 HK$2.32 HK$4.31 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.40 HK$4.38 HK$8.28 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.68 HK$3.60 HK$6.28 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.09 HK$2.43 HK$3.47 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.86 HK$4.58 HK$9.62 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.35 HK$3.07 HK$6.03 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.5300 HK$3.72 HK$5.22 54
Lynch FV HK$1.92 HK$2.74 HK$3.57 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.92 HK$2.74 HK$3.57 46
EPV HK$1.40 HK$1.55 HK$1.68 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.65 HK$2.20 HK$2.74 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.00 HK$1.33 HK$1.67 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.00 HK$1.33 HK$1.67 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.72 HK$3.49 HK$4.25 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.06 HK$3.93 HK$4.80 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.59 HK$2.09 HK$2.59 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6300 HK$0.8500 HK$1.27 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.5300 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7400 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.9900 HK$1.02 HK$1.02 61
ROIC Compounder HK$1.55 HK$1.98 HK$2.37 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.77 HK$3.96 HK$5.15 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$3.96) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.6100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.0%
Net margin 6.9%
Return on equity 7.4%
Free cash flow HK$15.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 28.6 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 11.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400
EPS growth (YoY) -12.4%
Net debt HK$864M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 6

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 52
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Vobile Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides platforms and services for digital content assets protection and transactions in the United States, Mainland China, and internationally.

Full company description

Vobile Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides platforms and services for digital content assets protection and transactions in the United States, Mainland China, and internationally. It also provides RightsID, which offers comprehensive copyright management services to content creators on online content-sharing platforms, such as YouTube, Facebook, and others; and VideoTracker that offers critical protection to ensure exclusive delivery of audiovisual content to theaters, set-top-boxes, and smart devices anywhere in the world, from ultra-HD movie content to premium TV and live events. In addition, the company offers API Arithmetic service, an interface-based offering tailored for copyright service platforms and streaming media websites; and ChannelID, a channel management and content strategy. Further, it provides Vobile Insights solutions, which delivers in-depth official and competitive content analysis at scale utilizing proprietary technology; and Web3 services. Additionally, the company offers subscription and value-added services. It serves film studios, TV networks, sports leagues, music labels, and other IP rights holders. Vobile Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Vobile Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.9B in FY2025 versus HK$687M in FY2021, a compound +43.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$199M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.9B
Latest YoY
+19.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+38.7%
Revenue +43.0%/yr
FY21 HK$687M
FY22 HK$1.4B
FY23 HK$2.0B
FY24 HK$2.4B
FY25 HK$2.9B
Net income
FY21 −HK$22.7M
FY22 HK$42.0M
FY23 −HK$7.8M
FY24 HK$143M
FY25 HK$199M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −4.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +31.0 pp

of which total revenue +39.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −8.0 pp

EBIT margin −3.9 pp
Tax rate +2.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −33.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3738 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vobile Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3738

Peer Group

Software - Application · 718 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.80× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.03× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 48.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 16 · sector 2
FUTURE 80 · sector 38
PAST 30 · sector 13
HEALTH 99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 34

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Shopify Inc SHOP C$209.78 C$28.76 -86%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $75.36 $43.66 -42%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $193.32 $249.28 +29%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $124.94 $43.73 -65%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $323.13 $112.57 -65%
Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 ¥254.50 ¥81.23 -68%
Tata Elxsi Limited TATAELXSI ₹3,712 ₹2,519 -32%
Douzone Bizon Co 012510 120,000 KRW 92,181 KRW -23%
KFin Technologies Limited KFINTECH ₹922.00 ₹556.85 -40%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vobile Group Ltd (3738) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.20 versus a price of HK$2.53, about −13% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3738?
Our model-based fair value for Vobile Group Ltd is HK$2.20 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.53.
What is the quality score of 3738?
Vobile Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?
Vobile Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3738?
The net profit margin of Vobile Group Ltd is about 6.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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