Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Vobile Group Ltd (3738) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Vobile Group Ltd HK$2.16, price HK$3.30, upside -34.6%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Technology · HK · ISIN KYG9390R1103

Thin data Oct 1, 2026

Vobile Group Ltd

3738 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value HK$2.16 · Overvalued (−34.6%)

!Quality 35/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 8.9% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)

!Narrow moat 44/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear HK$1.09 to bull HK$2.69 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 35/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.15 – HK$9.64 · fair‑value band HK$1.09 – HK$2.69 · the HK$3.30 price screens above the HK$2.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Vobile Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides platforms and services for digital content assets protection and transactions in the United States, Mainland China, and internationally.

Vobile Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides platforms and services for digital content assets protection and transactions in the United States, Mainland China, and internationally. It also provides RightsID, which offers comprehensive copyright management services to content creators on online content-sharing platforms, such as YouTube, Facebook, and others; and VideoTracker that offers critical protection to ensure exclusive delivery of audiovisual content to theaters, set-top-boxes, and smart devices anywhere in the world, from ultra-HD movie content to premium TV and live events. In addition, the company offers API Arithmetic service, an interface-based offering tailored for copyright service platforms and streaming media websites; and ChannelID, a channel management and content strategy. Further, it provides Vobile Insights solutions, which delivers in-depth official and competitive content analysis at scale utilizing proprietary technology; and Web3 services. Additionally, the company offers subscription and value-added services. It serves film studios, TV networks, sports leagues, music labels, and other IP rights holders. Vobile Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Vobile Group Ltd (3738) currently trades at HK$3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.16, 34.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$3.89 per share, and 8 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$3.30 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.8400, and 15 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.09 (bear) to HK$2.69 (bull), the price of HK$3.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Vobile Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.9B in FY2025 versus HK$687M in FY2021, a compound +43.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$199M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$9.3B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 2.08 · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 14.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$3.2B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −35%, 3738 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.09 Fair Value HK$2.16 Bull HK$2.69

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$0.8300 HK$1.02 HK$1.57 78

Growth DCF HK$0.8100 HK$1.08 HK$1.51 77

EPV HK$1.26 HK$1.37 HK$1.46 74

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$0.8300 HK$1.02 HK$1.57 78

Owner Earnings HK$2.52 HK$4.77 HK$8.94 70

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.40 HK$2.28 HK$4.13 68

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.33 HK$4.17 HK$7.78 69

5Y P/E Exit HK$1.67 HK$3.47 HK$5.96 66

10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.17 HK$2.40 HK$3.30 64

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.84 HK$4.24 HK$8.66 61

10Y P/E Exit HK$1.40 HK$2.95 HK$5.58 58

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.5200 HK$3.65 HK$5.12 61

Lynch FV HK$1.89 HK$2.69 HK$3.50 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$1.89 HK$2.69 HK$3.50 55

EPV HK$1.26 HK$1.37 HK$1.46 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$1.62 HK$2.16 HK$2.69 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.9800 HK$1.31 HK$1.64 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.9800 HK$1.31 HK$1.64 55

EV/EBIT HK$2.68 HK$3.42 HK$4.17 66

EV/EBITDA HK$3.00 HK$3.86 HK$4.72 67

EV/Revenue HK$1.56 HK$2.05 HK$2.54 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6200 HK$0.8400 HK$1.25 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$0.8100 HK$1.08 HK$1.51 77

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.9300 HK$0.9400 HK$1.00 68

ROIC Compounder HK$1.27 HK$1.55 HK$1.79 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.72 HK$3.89 HK$5.06 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 33

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 46

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 25

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 62

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 33

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 0

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 41

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 12

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 15

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Revenue growth 1 year

+19.6%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+25.8%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+1.7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +35.6% a year

Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+38.7%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.

−12.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−43.7% vs −2.1%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 11%

2025 sits 107% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

more than +80 %

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

3738 screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 700 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −34.5% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 8.8% · Above median

Return on assets 4.6% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 8.9% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 14.0% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 24.0% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.0× · Pricier than median

P/B 2.89× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 2.90× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 15.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 39

PAST (return on equity)35 · sector 16

HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Adobe Inc ADBE	$235.47	$454.04	+93%
Datadog, Inc DDOG	$268.70	$32.52	−88%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS	$326.70	$225.48	−31%

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Vobile Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$2.16 −35%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3738" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Vobile Group Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$2.16</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−35%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vobile Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3738

Frequently asked questions

Is Vobile Group Ltd (3738) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.16 versus a price of HK$3.30, about −35% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 3738?

Our model-based fair value for Vobile Group Ltd is HK$2.16 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.30.

What is the quality score of 3738?

Vobile Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.16 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.09, optimistic scenario HK$2.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Vobile Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$2.16, about −35% upside versus a price of HK$3.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.09, optimistic scenario HK$2.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

Vobile Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).

What growth is priced into Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vobile Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3738 use?

Our models discount Vobile Group Ltd at 14.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.93, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vobile Group Ltd that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Vobile Group Ltd (3738) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Vobile Group Ltd grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Vobile Group Ltd (3738) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vobile Group Ltd (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.16 %: that much free cash flow Vobile Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vobile Group Ltd it is HK$2.16 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$3.30. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Vobile Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 1, 2026, 3738 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.30, fair value HK$2.16, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 3738?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.16). For Vobile Group Ltd the two are HK$1.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Vobile Group Ltd worth?

The market values Vobile Group Ltd at about HK$9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.30; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.16 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3738?

Our models span a range for Vobile Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.09, base HK$2.16, optimistic HK$2.69 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$3.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 3738?

Vobile Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 15.6.

How solid is the balance sheet of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

Balance-sheet figures for Vobile Group Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 8.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 3738 from its 52-week high?

Vobile Group Ltd trades at HK$3.30, about 50% below its 52-week high of HK$6.60 and 49% above the low of HK$2.22 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.16 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Vobile Group Ltd?

From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Vobile Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$3.30, calculated fair value HK$2.16 (−35%), Quality Score 35/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 3738 calculated?

We run Vobile Group Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Vobile Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.30. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.16, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Vobile Group Ltd right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.09 to HK$2.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of Vobile Group Ltd (3738) come from?

Earnings per share at Vobile Group Ltd grew −4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +31.0 %, EBIT margin −3.9 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −25.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Vobile Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The market capitalisation of Vobile Group Ltd is HK$9.3B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Vobile Group Ltd is 2.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What is the net margin of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The net margin of Vobile Group Ltd is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Vobile Group Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vobile Group Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

The operating margin of Vobile Group Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

Revenue at Vobile Group Ltd is growing +24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Vobile Group Ltd (3738)?

Earnings per share at Vobile Group Ltd are growing +68.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Vobile Group Ltd (3738) carry?

The net debt of Vobile Group Ltd is HK$864M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 56.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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