Vobile Group Ltd (3738) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$5.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$1.57 to HK$2.20 (+40.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +11.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (HK$1.26 to HK$2.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from HK$1.26 (bear) to HK$2.74 (bull), base HK$2.20. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 40/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.15 – HK$9.64 · fair‑value band HK$1.26 – HK$2.74 · the HK$2.53 price screens above the HK$2.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vobile Group Ltd (3738) currently trades at HK$2.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.20, implying the stock looks roughly 13.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vobile Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.9B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at HK$864M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.26 (bear case) to HK$2.74 (bull case); at HK$2.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -13%, 3738 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$3.96) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.6100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 6
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vobile Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides platforms and services for digital content assets protection and transactions in the United States, Mainland China, and internationally.
Full company description
Vobile Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides platforms and services for digital content assets protection and transactions in the United States, Mainland China, and internationally. It also provides RightsID, which offers comprehensive copyright management services to content creators on online content-sharing platforms, such as YouTube, Facebook, and others; and VideoTracker that offers critical protection to ensure exclusive delivery of audiovisual content to theaters, set-top-boxes, and smart devices anywhere in the world, from ultra-HD movie content to premium TV and live events. In addition, the company offers API Arithmetic service, an interface-based offering tailored for copyright service platforms and streaming media websites; and ChannelID, a channel management and content strategy. Further, it provides Vobile Insights solutions, which delivers in-depth official and competitive content analysis at scale utilizing proprietary technology; and Web3 services. Additionally, the company offers subscription and value-added services. It serves film studios, TV networks, sports leagues, music labels, and other IP rights holders. Vobile Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vobile Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.9B in FY2025 versus HK$687M in FY2021, a compound +43.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$199M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +39.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −8.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
3738 screens 13% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 718 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.46 | C$16.26 | +30% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | -86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $75.36 | $43.66 | -42% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $193.32 | $249.28 | +29% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $124.94 | $43.73 | -65% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $323.13 | $112.57 | -65% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥254.50 | ¥81.23 | -68% |
| Tata Elxsi Limited TATAELXSI | ₹3,712 | ₹2,519 | -32% |
| Douzone Bizon Co 012510 | 120,000 KRW | 92,181 KRW | -23% |
| KFin Technologies Limited KFINTECH | ₹922.00 | ₹556.85 | -40% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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