Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Greentown China Holdings Ltd HK$9.71, price HK$6.24, upside +55.7%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.54 – HK$15.32 · fair‑value band HK$9.71 – HK$26.91 · the HK$6.24 price screens below the HK$9.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Greentown China Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development for sale of residential properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property Development, Hotel Operations, Property Investment, Project Management, and Other segments. The company develops and sells residential properties.
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Greentown China Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development for sale of residential properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property Development, Hotel Operations, Property Investment, Project Management, and Other segments. The company develops and sells residential properties. It also offers investment and asset management; project management; technology research and development; and design and architectural decoration services, as well as sells construction materials. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900) currently trades at HK$6.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.71, implying the stock looks roughly 35.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$47.65 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$6.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$5.30, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$9.71 (bear) to HK$26.91 (bull), the price of HK$6.24 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Greentown China Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 155B CNY in FY2025 versus 100B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 71.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding −64.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$15.8B (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 233.0 · P/S ratio 0.11 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 56%, 3900 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.71Fair Value HK$9.71Bull HK$26.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−55.0% vs −27.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−10.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.0% a year for the price and −11.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Greentown China Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 570 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+55.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−26.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greentown China Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3900
Frequently asked questions
Is Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.71 versus a price of HK$6.24, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3900?
Our model-based fair value for Greentown China Holdings Ltd is HK$9.71 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.24.
What is the quality score of 3900?
Greentown China Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.71 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.71, optimistic scenario HK$26.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greentown China Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.71, about +56% upside versus a price of HK$6.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.71, optimistic scenario HK$26.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
Greentown China Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 141B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Greentown China Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Greentown China Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.62% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greentown China Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +42.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.7 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3900 use?
Our models discount Greentown China Holdings Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greentown China Holdings Ltd that is +42.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Greentown China Holdings Ltd grew +18.7 % a year. The price currently implies +42.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greentown China Holdings Ltd (+42.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.96 %: that much free cash flow Greentown China Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greentown China Holdings Ltd it is HK$9.71 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$6.24. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Greentown China Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 3900 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$6.24, fair value HK$9.71, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3900?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$6.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.71). For Greentown China Holdings Ltd the two are HK$3.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greentown China Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Greentown China Holdings Ltd at about HK$15.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$6.24; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3900?
Our models span a range for Greentown China Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$9.71, base HK$9.71, optimistic HK$26.91 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$6.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3900?
Greentown China Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 233.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.71 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 6.1 (reported for FY2025: 191.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 8.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.1, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 3900?
The PEG ratio of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 0.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greentown China Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 3.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3900 from its 52-week high?
Greentown China Holdings Ltd trades at HK$6.24, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$11.55 and 13% above the low of HK$5.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greentown China Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greentown China Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$6.24, calculated fair value HK$9.71 (+56%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3900 calculated?
We run Greentown China Holdings Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Greentown China Holdings Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$6.24. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.71, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greentown China Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.71). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$9.71 to HK$26.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Greentown China Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The market capitalisation of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is HK$15.8B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The dividend yield of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The net margin of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
The operating margin of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
Revenue at Greentown China Holdings Ltd is growing −26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900)?
Earnings per share at Greentown China Holdings Ltd are growing −62.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Greentown China Holdings Ltd (3900) carry?
The net debt of Greentown China Holdings Ltd is 70.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 87.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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