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Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Orient Securities Co Ltd H HK$9.58, price HK$5.71, upside +67.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE1000027F2

OS Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Orient Securities Co Ltd H

3958 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$9.58 · Strongly undervalued (+67.8%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 40.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!3.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$8.23 HK$2.44 Fair Value HK$9.58 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.44 – HK$8.23 · fair‑value band HK$7.19 – HK$11.98 · the HK$5.71 price screens below the HK$9.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Orient Securities Company Limited operates as an integrated securities company in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management; Investment Banking and Alternative Investment; Institutional and Sales Trading; and International and Other Operations segments.

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Orient Securities Company Limited operates as an integrated securities company in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management; Investment Banking and Alternative Investment; Institutional and Sales Trading; and International and Other Operations segments. The company provides securities brokerage, financial products, investment advisory, margin financing and securities lending, asset management, and futures services. It also offers stock underwriting and sponsoring, bond underwriting, financial advisory, and diversified corporate solutions, as well as alternative investment. In addition, the company is involved in the market making, research services, and custodian business; provision of proprietary investment, including investment transactions such as in equity, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange; and client-oriented services comprfising OTC derivatives and FICC agency services. Further, it engages in commodity and financial futures brokerage; investment advisory; equity, asset, investment, securities asset, and fund management; investment consultancy; private equity, bond, industrial, financial asset, and securities investment; securities underwriting; and provision of corporate finance advisory services. Additionally, the company acts as a foreign exchange brokers and dealers; and offers software development services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) currently trades at HK$5.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.58, implying the stock looks roughly 40.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$33.20 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$5.71 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.18, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$7.19 (bear) to HK$11.98 (bull), the price of HK$5.71 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Orient Securities Co Ltd H reported revenue of 25.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 27.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 5.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$49.7B (≈ $6.3B) · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 1.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1900 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 21.9% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 68%, 3958 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$7.19 Fair Value HK$9.58 Bull HK$11.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$8.62 HK$9.07 HK$9.86 76
Owner Earnings HK$10.98 HK$33.20 HK$78.13 68
Gordon GGM HK$5.18 HK$10.32 HK$15.62 67
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$10.98 HK$33.20 HK$78.13 68
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$5.01 HK$34.97 HK$49.07 63
Lynch FV HK$12.12 HK$17.32 HK$22.52 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$5.18 HK$10.32 HK$15.62 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.18 HK$8.92 HK$10.89 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$7.19 HK$9.59 HK$11.98 63
P/B Multiple HK$9.40 HK$12.54 HK$15.67 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.36 HK$7.18 HK$10.71 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$8.62 HK$9.07 HK$9.86 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.8% vs 1.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 38%
2025 sits 86% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +67.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.9% · Above median
Return on assets 1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 40.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 66.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.91× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.53× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.54× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 96
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)55 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)70 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $196.31 $314.07 +60%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $935.45 $766.86 −18%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.03 $118.07 +19%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.24 $23.12 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $116.22 $47.77 −59%
Macquarie Group MQG A$239.53 A$80.51 −66%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.29 ¥18.35 −30%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.21 ¥19.35 +12%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.28 ¥4.94 −73%
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.91 $10.19 +3%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orient Securities Co Ltd H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3958

Frequently asked questions

Is Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.58 versus a price of HK$5.71, about +68% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3958?
Our model-based fair value for Orient Securities Co Ltd H is HK$9.58 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.71.
What is the quality score of 3958?
Orient Securities Co Ltd H has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.58 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.19, optimistic scenario HK$11.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orient Securities Co Ltd H stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.58, about +68% upside versus a price of HK$5.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.19, optimistic scenario HK$11.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Orient Securities Co Ltd H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Orient Securities Co Ltd H pay a dividend?
Orient Securities Co Ltd H currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orient Securities Co Ltd H it is HK$9.58 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$5.71. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orient Securities Co Ltd H stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3958 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.71, fair value HK$9.58, a gap of about +68% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3958?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.58). For Orient Securities Co Ltd H the two are HK$3.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orient Securities Co Ltd H worth?
The market values Orient Securities Co Ltd H at about HK$49.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.71; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3958?
Our models span a range for Orient Securities Co Ltd H: cautious scenario HK$7.19, base HK$9.58, optimistic HK$11.98 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$5.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3958?
Orient Securities Co Ltd H trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orient Securities Co Ltd H (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3958 from its 52-week high?
Orient Securities Co Ltd H trades at HK$5.71, about 26% below its 52-week high of HK$7.76 and 10% above the low of HK$5.20 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orient Securities Co Ltd H?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orient Securities Co Ltd H stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$5.71, calculated fair value HK$9.58 (+68%), Quality Score 41/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3958 calculated?
We run Orient Securities Co Ltd H through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Orient Securities Co Ltd H currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$5.71. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.58, about +68% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orient Securities Co Ltd H right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) come from?
Earnings per share at Orient Securities Co Ltd H grew −5.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin −9.4 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Orient Securities Co Ltd H

How large is the market capitalisation of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The market capitalisation of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is HK$49.7B (≈ $6.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 1.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Earnings per share at Orient Securities Co Ltd H are HK$0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The dividend yield of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 3.5% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The net margin of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 21.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
The operating margin of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 66.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Revenue at Orient Securities Co Ltd H is growing +43.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958)?
Earnings per share at Orient Securities Co Ltd H are growing +38.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) generate?
The free cash flow of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is −7.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) carry?
The net debt of Orient Securities Co Ltd H is 193B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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