Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$47.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$11.40 to HK$9.45 (−17.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +0.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 70% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.44 – HK$8.23 · fair‑value band HK$7.37 – HK$12.28 · the HK$5.56 price screens below the HK$9.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Orient Securities Co Ltd H (3958) currently trades at HK$5.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.45, implying the stock looks roughly 70.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Orient Securities Co Ltd H generated revenue of HK$15.0B at a net margin of 38.5%. Revenue grew 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at HK$193B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$7.37 (bear case) to HK$12.28 (bull case); at HK$5.56, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 70%, 3958 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$18.57) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.32). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orient Securities Company Limited operates as an integrated securities company in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management; Investment Banking and Alternative Investment; Institutional and Sales Trading; and International and Other Operations segments.
Full company description
Orient Securities Company Limited operates as an integrated securities company in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management; Investment Banking and Alternative Investment; Institutional and Sales Trading; and International and Other Operations segments. The company provides securities brokerage, financial products, investment advisory, margin financing and securities lending, asset management, and futures services. It also offers stock underwriting and sponsoring, bond underwriting, financial advisory, and diversified corporate solutions, as well as alternative investment. In addition, the company is involved in the market making, research services, and custodian business; provision of proprietary investment, including investment transactions such as in equity, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange; and client-oriented services comprfising OTC derivatives and FICC agency services. Further, it engages in commodity and financial futures brokerage; investment advisory; equity, asset, investment, securities asset, and fund management; investment consultancy; private equity, bond, industrial, financial asset, and securities investment; securities underwriting; and provision of corporate finance advisory services. Additionally, the company acts as a foreign exchange brokers and dealers; and offers software development services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orient Securities Co Ltd H reported revenue of HK$25.0B in FY2025 versus HK$27.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.5B in FY2025, compounding +0.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Capital Markets · 423 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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