3958 (3958) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · Market cap HK$47.1B

3 3958 3958 · HK

PriceHK$5.55

Fair ValueHK$11.10

Upside+100.0%

Quality46/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$8.33 – HK$13.88

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated today

Share price +0.1% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$4.95 – HK$8.23 · fair‑value band HK$8.33 – HK$13.88 · the HK$5.55 price screens below the HK$11.10 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

3958 (3958) currently trades at HK$5.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.10 — implying the stock looks roughly 100.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, 3958 generated revenue of HK$15.0B at a net margin of 38.5%. Revenue grew 3.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at HK$193B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$15.0B

Revenue growth (YoY) +3.7%

Net margin 38.5%

Return on equity 6.9%

Free cash flow −HK$7.6B FY2025

P/E ratio 7.1

More key figures

Operating margin 48.5%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.4300

Dividend yield 5.9%

EPS growth (YoY) +18.8%

Net debt HK$193B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

3958 reported revenue of HK$25.0B in FY2025 versus HK$27.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.5B in FY2025, compounding +0.5%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue −2.3%/yr

FY21 HK$27.4B

FY22 HK$22.1B

FY23 HK$20.8B

FY24 HK$23.0B

FY25 HK$25.0B

Net income +0.5%/yr

FY21 HK$5.4B

FY22 HK$3.0B

FY23 HK$2.8B

FY24 HK$3.4B

FY25 HK$5.5B

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Similar stocks

6 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Huatai Securities Co HTSC	$0.2700	$0.0500	-81%
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS	$214.98	$138.97	-35%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS	$1,001	$283.83	-72%
CITIC Securities Company 600030	¥25.67	¥51.34	+100%
6030 6030	HK$27.26	HK$30.74	+13%
Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800	46,100 KRW	36,828 KRW	-20%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 3958 (3958) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.10 versus a price of HK$5.55 — about +100% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 3958?

Our model-based fair value for 3958 is HK$11.10 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$5.55.

What is the quality score of 3958?

3958 has a Quality Score of 46/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 3958 (3958)?

3958 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$15.0B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3958?

The net profit margin of 3958 is about 38.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 38.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 3958 pay a dividend?

3958 currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.85% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.