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China Railway Signal & Commun (3969) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Railway Signal & Commun HK$2.56, price HK$3.00, upside -14.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE1000021L3

CR Thin data Sep 28, 2026

China Railway Signal & Commun

3969 · HK

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value HK$2.56 · Overvalued (−14.6%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +6.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!6.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 14 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$3.74 HK$1.71 Fair Value HK$2.56 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.71 – HK$3.74 · fair‑value band HK$1.91 – HK$2.97 · the HK$3.00 price screens above the HK$2.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transportation control system solutions in China and internationally. It operates through Rail Transportation Control System, General Engineering Contracting, and Others segments.

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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail transportation control system solutions in China and internationally. It operates through Rail Transportation Control System, General Engineering Contracting, and Others segments. The company offers design and integration, and system integration services for rail transportation control system-related products; and design and consulting services for rail transportation projects. It also produces and sells signal system products, communication information system products, infrastructure equipment and information systems, and other related products. In addition, the company offers construction, installation, testing, operation, and maintenance services for rail transportation control projects; and services relating to municipal engineering projects and other construction projects. Further, it engages in the system delivery service, investment management, and technical exchange and trade activities, as well as provision of project management activities. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Railway Signal & Communication (Group) Corporation Limited.

Stock analysis

China Railway Signal & Commun (3969) currently trades at HK$3.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.56, 14.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$9.02 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$3.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$2.45, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.91 (bear) to HK$2.97 (bull), the price of HK$3.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Railway Signal & Commun reported revenue of 34.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 38.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$31.8B (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3729 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 84.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −15%, 3969 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.91 Fair Value HK$2.56 Bull HK$2.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1332 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings HK$5.85 HK$7.56 HK$9.89 78
Residual Income HK$4.30 HK$4.56 HK$5.05 76
EPV HK$5.68 HK$6.32 HK$6.87 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$5.85 HK$7.56 HK$9.89 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.77 HK$6.33 HK$8.12 65
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.06 HK$1.51 HK$1.96 57
EPV HK$5.68 HK$6.32 HK$6.87 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.70 HK$2.75 HK$3.92 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.70 HK$2.45 HK$3.26 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$8.54 HK$11.39 HK$14.24 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.19 HK$6.91 HK$8.64 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.19 HK$6.91 HK$8.64 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.95 HK$14.05 HK$17.16 66
EV/EBITDA HK$9.73 HK$12.43 HK$15.13 67
EV/Revenue HK$6.35 HK$8.37 HK$10.38 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.61 HK$3.50 HK$5.23 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.30 HK$4.56 HK$5.05 76
ROIC Compounder HK$5.74 HK$6.61 HK$7.56 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$6.31 HK$9.02 HK$11.72 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.0% vs 0.6%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

3969 screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −14.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.9% · Above median
Return on assets 2.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.57× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.80× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)14 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $273.79 $153.47 −44%
CSX Corporation CSX $46.78 $12.91 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $86.56 $37.51 −57%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $121.14 $98.68 −19%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $313.00 $133.05 −57%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $288.00 $290.92 +1%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.69 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.97 ¥9.21 +54%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.66 ¥5.48 +18%
Getlink SE GET €18.83 €10.42 −45%

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China Railway Signal & Commun · Fair Value
HK$2.56 −15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Signal & Commun Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3969

Frequently asked questions

Is China Railway Signal & Commun (3969) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.56 versus a price of HK$3.00, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3969?
Our model-based fair value for China Railway Signal & Commun is HK$2.56 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.00.
What is the quality score of 3969?
China Railway Signal & Commun has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.56 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.91, optimistic scenario HK$2.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Railway Signal & Commun stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.56, about −15% upside versus a price of HK$3.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.91, optimistic scenario HK$2.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
China Railway Signal & Commun reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does China Railway Signal & Commun pay a dividend?
China Railway Signal & Commun currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway Signal & Commun it is HK$2.56 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$3.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Railway Signal & Commun stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 3969 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.00, fair value HK$2.56, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3969?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.56). For China Railway Signal & Commun the two are HK$0.4370 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Railway Signal & Commun worth?
The market values China Railway Signal & Commun at about HK$31.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3969?
Our models span a range for China Railway Signal & Commun: cautious scenario HK$1.91, base HK$2.56, optimistic HK$2.97 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$3.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3969?
China Railway Signal & Commun trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Railway Signal & Commun (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3969 from its 52-week high?
China Railway Signal & Commun trades at HK$3.00, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$3.67 and 3% above the low of HK$2.92 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Railway Signal & Commun?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Railway Signal & Commun stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$3.00, calculated fair value HK$2.56 (−15%), Quality Score 58/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3969 calculated?
We run China Railway Signal & Commun through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway Signal & Commun itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.56, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Railway Signal & Commun right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969) come from?
Earnings per share at China Railway Signal & Commun grew +1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin +48.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −33.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Railway Signal & Commun

How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The market capitalisation of China Railway Signal & Commun is HK$31.8B (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway Signal & Commun is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
Earnings per share at China Railway Signal & Commun are HK$0.3729 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The dividend yield of China Railway Signal & Commun is 6.5% (payout 52.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The net margin of China Railway Signal & Commun is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway Signal & Commun is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway Signal & Commun is 84.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
The operating margin of China Railway Signal & Commun is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
Revenue at China Railway Signal & Commun is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Railway Signal & Commun (3969)?
Earnings per share at China Railway Signal & Commun are growing −12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Railway Signal & Commun (3969) generate?
The free cash flow of China Railway Signal & Commun is −1.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Railway Signal & Commun (3969) hold?
China Railway Signal & Commun holds more cash than debt, 10.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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