3969 (3969) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · Market cap HK$33.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price −7.3% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range HK$3.17 – HK$3.90 · fair‑value band HK$4.42 – HK$7.97 · the HK$3.18 price screens below the HK$6.22 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.
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3969 (3969) currently trades at HK$3.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.22 — implying the stock looks roughly 95.6% undervalued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, 3969 generated revenue of HK$34.3B at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$10.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
3969 reported revenue of HK$34.6B in FY2025 versus HK$38.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.7B in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Similar stocks
6 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNP UNP | 4,617 MXN | 133.28 MXN | -97% |
| Union Pacific Corporation UPAC34 | R$335.92 | R$116.27 | -65% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.23 | $10.82 | -77% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $85.67 | $49.10 | -43% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $119.18 | $63.51 | -47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $308.93 | $102.07 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.