Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd HK$0.11, price HK$0.08, upside +37.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0680 – HK$0.2148 · fair‑value band HK$0.0828 – HK$0.1438 · the HK$0.0830 price screens below the HK$0.1143 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Capital Environment Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the waste treatment and waste-to-energy businesses in Mainland China.
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Capital Environment Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the waste treatment and waste-to-energy businesses in Mainland China. The company is involved in the provision of waste technologies and services, including technology development, design, system integration, project investment, consultancy, operation, and maintenance of waste treatment facilities and waste-to-energy projects. It also offers kitchen and hazardous waste treatment; municipal solid waste treatment; waste collection and transportation; waste management; construction waste treatment technical and other technical services; and recycles and disassembles waste electrical and electronic equipment. In addition, the company is involved in the environment restoration; restoration and operation of waste accumulation sites; construction waste treatment technical services; municipal solid waste treatment; waste-to-energy generation; and biomass incineration power generation activities. The company was formerly known as New Environmental Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to Capital Environment Holdings Limited in May 2014. Capital Environment Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989) currently trades at HK$0.0830, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1143, implying the stock looks roughly 27.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.9600 per share, and 12 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$0.0830 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.3300, and 0 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0828 (bear) to HK$0.1438 (bull), the price of HK$0.0830 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Capital Environment Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.6B in FY2025 versus HK$5.4B in FY2021, a compound −9.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$267M in FY2025, compounding −14.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.2B (≈ $151M) · P/E ratio 4.1 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 17.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 38%, 3989 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0828Fair Value HK$0.1143Bull HK$0.1438
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 25%
Compare Capital Environment Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 168 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+38% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1143 versus a price of HK$0.0830, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3989?
Our model-based fair value for Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1143 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0830.
What is the quality score of 3989?
Capital Environment Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1143 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0828, optimistic scenario HK$0.1438. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capital Environment Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1143, about +38% upside versus a price of HK$0.0830 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0828, optimistic scenario HK$0.1438. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Capital Environment Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capital Environment Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.1143 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0830. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Capital Environment Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3989 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0830, fair value HK$0.1143, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3989?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0830); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1143). For Capital Environment Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0313 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capital Environment Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Capital Environment Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0830; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1143 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3989?
Our models span a range for Capital Environment Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0828, base HK$0.1143, optimistic HK$0.1438 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.0830). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3989?
Capital Environment Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1143 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 3989?
The PEG ratio of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Balance-sheet figures for Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.0%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3989 from its 52-week high?
Capital Environment Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.0830, about 43% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1460 and 22% above the low of HK$0.0680 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1143 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capital Environment Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capital Environment Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.0830, calculated fair value HK$0.1143 (+38%), Quality Score 42/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3989 calculated?
We run Capital Environment Holdings Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1143, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Capital Environment Holdings Ltd currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$0.0830. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1143, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Capital Environment Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989) come from?
Earnings per share at Capital Environment Holdings Ltd grew +8.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
The market capitalisation of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is HK$1.2B (≈ $151M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Earnings per share at Capital Environment Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
The net margin of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
The operating margin of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Revenue at Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989)?
Earnings per share at Capital Environment Holdings Ltd are growing +36.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989) generate?
The free cash flow of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is −HK$270M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Capital Environment Holdings Ltd (3989) carry?
The net debt of Capital Environment Holdings Ltd is HK$10.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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