Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Automotive Services Co. stock SAR 31.16, price SAR 36.62, upside -14.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.51 SAR – 89.10 SAR · fair‑value band 21.81 SAR – 40.51 SAR · the 36.62 SAR price screens above the 31.16 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Saudi Automotive Services Company owns and operates a network of motor vehicle service stations in Saudi Arabia. It operates through Retail and Operations; SASCO Palm; Saudi Club; Transportation Fleet; and Others segments.
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The company establishes workshops for repairing cars, heavy equipment, and car service stations; engages in local and international car and motorcycle clubs; issues customs traffic documents and international driving licenses; establishes, manages, maintains, and operates motorsports and motorcycle circuits; organizes races and events related to motorsports and motorcycles; transports and distributes water; and transports refrigerated and frozen goods, equipment, liquids and gases, and cars.
It also imports and sells foodstuffs, drinks, beverages, and raw materials; operates rest houses, motels, and restaurants; motorcycle fuels, gas stations; washes and lubricates cars and equipment; and imports and sells equipment and tools, motor vehicles, and spare parts.
In addition, the company engages in buying, selling, and zoning lands and real estate, off-plan sale activities, managing and renting owned and leased residential and non-residential properties, management activities of properties against commission, and real estate registration services; providing marketing services; temporary employment agencies for domestic and foreign labor services; and constructing roads and bridges.
Further, it undertakes contracts for establishment, management, maintenance, and operation of residential and commercial buildings, and road works; catering; and retail of food and beverages, as well as operates fuel station and related activities, hotels, and integrated office administrative service activities.
Saudi Automotive Services Company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050) currently trades at 36.62 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.16 SAR, 14.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 110.41 SAR per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the 36.62 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.58 SAR, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 21.81 SAR (bear) to 40.51 SAR (bull), the price of 36.62 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Saudi Automotive Services Co. reported revenue of 11.8B SAR in FY2025 versus 4.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +30.6%/yr. Reported net income was 64.3M SAR in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6B SAR (≈ $683M) Small · P/E ratio 40.7 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) 0.9000 SAR · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −15%, 4050 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear21.81 SARFair Value 31.16 SARBull40.51 SAR
Price 36.62 SAR · Upside -14.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7447 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +33.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.6% vs 7.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.5% a year for the price and +7.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 206 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−15.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.75× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 31.16 SAR versus a price of 36.62 SAR, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4050?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 31.16 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 36.62 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4050?
Saudi Automotive Services Co. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 31.16 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 21.81 SAR, optimistic scenario 40.51 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Automotive Services Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 31.16 SAR, about −15% upside versus a price of 36.62 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 21.81 SAR, optimistic scenario 40.51 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Saudi Automotive Services Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.4B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Automotive Services Co. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.8 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4050 use?
Our models discount Saudi Automotive Services Co. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Automotive Services Co. that is -1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Automotive Services Co. grew +40.8 % a year. The price currently implies -1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Automotive Services Co. (-1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.87 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Automotive Services Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Automotive Services Co. it is 31.16 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 36.62 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Automotive Services Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4050 trades above its calculated fair value: price 36.62 SAR, fair value 31.16 SAR, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4050?
No. The price is what the market pays today (36.62 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (31.16 SAR). For Saudi Automotive Services Co. the two are 5.46 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Automotive Services Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Automotive Services Co. at about 2.6B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 36.62 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 31.16 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4050?
Our models span a range for Saudi Automotive Services Co.: cautious scenario 21.81 SAR, base 31.16 SAR, optimistic 40.51 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 36.62 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4050?
Saudi Automotive Services Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.7 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 31.16 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 14.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Automotive Services Co. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 1.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4050 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Automotive Services Co. trades at 36.62 SAR, about 49% below its 52-week high of 71.70 SAR and 8% above the low of 34.00 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 31.16 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Automotive Services Co.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Automotive Services Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 36.62 SAR, calculated fair value 31.16 SAR (−15%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4050 calculated?
We run Saudi Automotive Services Co. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 31.16 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Automotive Services Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 36.62 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 31.16 SAR, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Automotive Services Co. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (21.81 SAR to 40.51 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Saudi Automotive Services Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 2.6B SAR (≈ $683M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Automotive Services Co. are 0.9000 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The net margin of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 0.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
The operating margin of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Revenue at Saudi Automotive Services Co. is growing +12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Automotive Services Co. are growing +91.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Automotive Services Co. (4050) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Automotive Services Co. is 4.4B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 28, 2026