Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd TWD 30.79, price TWD 19.55, upside +57.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and processing of fructose, maltose, glucose, and starch in Taiwan.
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Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and processing of fructose, maltose, glucose, and starch in Taiwan. The company offers fructose products used for soft drinks, juices, tea beverages, sports drinks, energy drinks, flavored milk, yogurt drinks, lac fermentum, ice creams, popsicles, ice cream bars, jellies and puddings, breads and cakes, and soy sauce and health food products applications; and maltose products for candy, iced products, jams, jelly, sachima, bean fillings, chewing gums, peanut candy, and candied fruits applications. It also provides oligosaccharide used for lactic acid beverages, sports drinks, low fat milk, iced products, candies, jams, and desserts applications; maltodextrine used in candies, iced products, bakery, biscuits, and desserts applications; and non-dairy creamers for coffee, milk tea, 3in1 instant drink, bakery, and food processing applications. In addition, the company offers sorbitol and dextrose used for food, fillings, toothpaste, cleaning and makeup products, and interface activators, as well as for candy, beverage, bakery, and candied fruit applications. Further, it engages in the trading of tinplate products. Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207) currently trades at 19.55 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30.79 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 36.81 TWD per share, and 19 of the 23 models we run sit above the 19.55 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.94 TWD, and 4 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 20.73 TWD (bear) to 40.03 TWD (bull), the price of 19.55 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 4.4B TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 349M TWD in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.9B TWD (≈ $122M) · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) 1.75 TWD · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 57%, 4207 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20.73 TWDFair Value 30.79 TWDBull 40.03 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4038 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
2025 sits 62% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+56% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4207
Frequently asked questions
Is Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30.79 TWD versus a price of 19.55 TWD, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4207?
Our model-based fair value for Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 30.79 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.55 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4207?
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 30.79 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20.73 TWD, optimistic scenario 40.03 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 30.79 TWD, about +57% upside versus a price of 19.55 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 20.73 TWD, optimistic scenario 40.03 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4207 use?
Our models discount Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd that is +1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies +1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (+1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.94 %: that much free cash flow Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd it is 30.79 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 19.55 TWD. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4207 trades below its calculated fair value: price 19.55 TWD, fair value 30.79 TWD, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4207?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.55 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (30.79 TWD). For Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd the two are 11.24 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd worth?
The market values Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd at about 3.9B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 19.55 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 30.79 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4207?
Our models span a range for Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd: cautious scenario 20.73 TWD, base 30.79 TWD, optimistic 40.03 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 19.55 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4207?
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 30.79 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Balance-sheet figures for Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4207 from its 52-week high?
Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd trades at 19.55 TWD, about 8% below its 52-week high of 21.20 TWD and 14% above the low of 17.14 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 30.79 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 19.55 TWD, calculated fair value 30.79 TWD (+57%), Quality Score 62/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4207 calculated?
We run Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 30.79 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 19.55 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 30.79 TWD, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (20.73 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (20.73 TWD to 40.03 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The market capitalisation of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 3.9B TWD (≈ $122M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd are 1.75 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The dividend yield of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 6.1% (payout 68.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The net margin of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
The operating margin of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Revenue at Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd are growing +76.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd (4207) carry?
The net debt of Taiwan Fructose Co Ltd is 881M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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