H World Group (1179) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of H World Group HK$50.42, price HK$34.28, upside +47.1%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$15.74 – HK$41.97 · fair‑value band HK$35.29 – HK$65.55 · the HK$34.28 price screens below the HK$50.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 11, 2026.
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H World Group Limited develops and operates leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China.
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H World Group Limited develops and operates leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotels in the People's Republic of China. The company operates hotels under its own brands, such as HanTing Hotel, Ni Hao Hotel, Hi Inn, Elan Hotel, Zleep Hotels, Ibis Hotel, JI Hotel, Orange Hotel, Starway Hotel, Ibis Styles Hotel, Crystal Orange Hotel, IntercityHotel, Grand JI Hotel, Manxin Hotel, Mercure Hotel, Madison Hotel, Novotel Hotel, CitiGO Hotel, MAXX, Joya Hotel, Blossom House, Steigenberger Hotels & Resorts, Jaz in the City, Grand Mercure Hotel, Steigenberger Icons, and Song Hotels. The company was formerly known as Huazhu Group Limited and changed its name to H World Group Limited in June 2022. H World Group Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
H World Group (1179) currently trades at HK$34.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$50.42, implying the stock looks roughly 32.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$66.93 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$34.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$13.74, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$35.29 (bear) to HK$65.55 (bull), the price of HK$34.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
H World Group reported revenue of 25.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 12.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was 5.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$112B (≈ $14.2B) · P/E ratio 32.6 · P/S ratio 6.55 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.76 · Net margin 20.1% · Return on equity 38.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 31.2%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 47%, 1179 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$35.29Fair Value HK$50.42Bull HK$65.55
Price HK$34.28 · Upside +47.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.8% vs 24.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+47.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)38.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)45.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "H World Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1179
Frequently asked questions
Is H World Group (1179) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$50.42 versus a price of HK$34.28, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1179?
Our model-based fair value for H World Group is HK$50.42 (as of Oct 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$34.28.
What is the quality score of 1179?
H World Group has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for H World Group (1179)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$50.42 (as of Oct 11, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$35.29, optimistic scenario HK$65.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the H World Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$50.42, about +47% upside versus a price of HK$34.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$35.29, optimistic scenario HK$65.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of H World Group (1179)?
H World Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 11, 2026).
What growth is priced into H World Group (1179)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, H World Group would have to grow free cash flow by -3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.9 % per year. As of Oct 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1179 use?
Our models discount H World Group at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For H World Group that is -3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has H World Group (1179) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at H World Group grew +19.9 % a year. The price currently implies -3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of H World Group (1179) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into H World Group (-3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of H World Group (1179)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.74 %: that much free cash flow H World Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of H World Group (1179)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For H World Group it is HK$50.42 per share (as of Oct 11, 2026), against a price of HK$34.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is H World Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 1179 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$34.28, fair value HK$50.42, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1179?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$34.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$50.42). For H World Group the two are HK$16.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is H World Group worth?
The market values H World Group at about HK$112B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 11, 2026). Per share that is HK$34.28; our models calculate a fair value of HK$50.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1179?
Our models span a range for H World Group: cautious scenario HK$35.29, base HK$50.42, optimistic HK$65.55 per share (as of Oct 11, 2026, price HK$34.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1179?
H World Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.6 (as of Oct 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$50.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.4, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of H World Group (1179)?
Balance-sheet figures for H World Group (as of Oct 11, 2026): return on equity 38.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1179 from its 52-week high?
H World Group trades at HK$34.28, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$41.97 and 26% above the low of HK$27.14 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$50.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to H World Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is H World Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 11, 2026: price HK$34.28, calculated fair value HK$50.42 (+47%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1179 calculated?
We run H World Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$50.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. H World Group currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of H World Group (1179)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was HK$34.28. Our model-based fair value is HK$50.42, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with H World Group right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$35.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (HK$35.29 to HK$65.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of H World Group (1179) come from?
Earnings per share at H World Group grew +28.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.1 %, EBIT margin +9.1 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of H World Group
How large is the market capitalisation of H World Group (1179)?
The market capitalisation of H World Group is HK$112B (≈ $14.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of H World Group (1179)?
The price-to-sales ratio of H World Group is 6.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of H World Group (1179)?
Earnings per share at H World Group are HK$1.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of H World Group (1179)?
The net margin of H World Group is 20.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of H World Group (1179)?
The return on equity (ROE) of H World Group is 38.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of H World Group (1179)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of H World Group is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of H World Group (1179)?
The operating margin of H World Group is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at H World Group (1179)?
Revenue at H World Group is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at H World Group (1179)?
Earnings per share at H World Group are growing −1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does H World Group (1179) carry?
The net debt of H World Group is 25.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 11, 2026